2015 American League Home Run Derby Preview - Betting Odds and Analysis

In the American League, there are certainly intriguing names on the list of participants. The last five derby winners have represented the AL, including back-to-back winner in 2013 and 2014, Yoenis Cespedes.

2015 AL PARTICIPANTS AND ODDS

Albert Pujols: #1 seed

Josh Donaldson: #3 seed

Manny Machado: #5 seed

Prince Fielder: #7 seed

PARTICIPANT BREAKDOWN

With Cespedes, the two-time defending champion, not participating in this year’s event, Albert Pujols is this year’s biggest story.

Pujols was the biggest name in the game a few years back, but his huge contract with the Los Angeles Angels had gone poorly due to injuries. He is finally healthy and playing like he did when back in St. Louis.

Pujols is the current AL leader in home runs with 26, putting him as not only the junior league’s top seed, but the #1 seed overall. On the year, he is slugging .561 despite a .264 average.

While Pujols has the name recognition and has been in three other derbies previously in 2003, 2007 and 2009, the only former winner in this event is fellow American Leaguer Prince Fielder.

Fielder took home the crown back in 2009 as a member of the Milwaukee Brewers. He has changed uniforms a couple times and had neck surgery since then, but the Rangers’ designated hitter is having a great year. Although he has just 13 home runs, he has hit the ball hard with a .344 average and a league leading 110 hits. His slugging percentage is also very strong at .525.

Pujols and Fielder will be joined by a couple newcomers to the Home Run Derby in third basemen Josh Donaldson and Manny Machado.

Donaldson broke out in a big way in 2013 and finished fourth in MVP voting that year. In 2014 he followed it up with a 29 home run season to show he was for real.

While he has already established himself as a star, he has broken into another stratosphere this year with a .544 slugging percentage, 21 home runs and a .300 average. He is well on his way to breaking his career high in long balls, thanks in part to playing half of his games in the Rogers Centre.

Machado is also hitting in a hitter’s friendly park in Camden Yards in Baltimore, but Cincinnati is hitter friendly as well.

Machado’s power has really blossomed this year. With two new knees under him, Machado has become elite. While getting named as a derby participant is a bit of a shock, the newly turned 23-year old is up for the challenge. He clobbered his 19^th home run of the season on Wednesday afternoon. His power is improving as the year moves along, and has hit 10 of his home runs in June or July.

DERBY FORMAT

This is the first year for a brand new format for the Home Run Derby. The derby has turned into a single-elimination tournament set up in a bracket with each loser of a bracket being eliminated immediately.

Each contestant will be seeded for the bracket based on the number of home runs he’s hit in 2015.

In previous formats, each contestant had 10 outs to play with, but now it’s time based with extra time bonuses given for exceptionally long blasts.

ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION

Due to the format change, nobody really has the advantage of past experience to know how to best handle the time limit. A lot will fall onto those throwing to them.

Still, Fielder and Pujols have the experience in home run derbies in the past which could help take some of the nerves away. Still, neither Donaldson nor Machado have been known to be easily flustered, though Machado has shown a bit of a temper from time to time. In the Home Run Derby, it is important to keep your emotions in check.

Overall, I give the edge to the elder statesman. Pujols has the experience and is leading the league in home runs. His bat is back and so is his power. He delivered 13 home runs in June and has already added two more this month. He has also hit 546 blasts in his career, so his swing is tailor made to go yard.

Outside the AL is where Pujols’ biggest threats may lie with Joc Pederson and Kris Bryant offering amazing off-the-bat hit speed and power while Todd Frazier is the second seed and has home field advantage.

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Don’t miss out on getting paid because you couldn’t bet, click here and deposit at BookMaker now! The Home Run Derby is scheduled for Monday, July 13, 2015, at 8 p.m. ET at Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati, OH. The derby will be broadcast nationally on ESPN.