The Cleveland Indians have claimed divisional supremacy over the last two seasons, winning 94 and 102 games in 2016 and 2017 respectively. Prior to the Tribe, the Kansas City Royals sat atop the division in 2015 and the Detroit Tigers held the divisional reigns for several years prior to that.
In general, the AL Central has been one that’s been up-for-grabs the last handful of seasons, but Cleveland looks to be heavy favorites here in 2018. They’re loaded with a strong rotation, deep bullpen and capable offense. They’re also motivated with several key players coming up on free agency after the year.
Cleveland had little competition for the top spot last year, winning the division by 17-games. Despite the divisional landslide, the central still produced two playoff teams, including the Minnesota Twins, the Indians only remote competition in 2018. The rest of the division is amid a rebuild with the Tigers losing 98 games last year, the White Sox still on the upswing after a massive sell-off the last season and a half, and the Royals having just bid farewell to two key players in Eric Hosmer and Lorenzo Cain.
Given the structure of the division, the Indians have a clear path to a third straight AL Central title. Can they deliver? Or will the Twins be an even bigger surprise in 2018?
ODDS ANALYSIS
Like most divisions in the game, the AL Central seems to have a very clear front runner and a sizeable gap between the leader—in this case the Indians—and the rest of the competition. The Indians are the clear favorites, the Twins are the longshot play and the rest of the divisions are no-shots. The MLB betting odds bear that out.
Currently, the Indians’ MLB betting odds are at -660 to win the division. That’s the best odds of any team to win any division in Major League Baseball.
While Houston and Los Angeles both went to the World Series, the Indians were there in 2016 and were the other team to reach the 100-win threshold. We’re in an era of super teams where the haves and have-nots are separated by the largest disparity we’ve seen in a while that leads to some bullish odds for the projected division winners. That’s particularly true for the Tribe.
Of course, it makes sense for the Indians to be so heavily favored in the AL Central. The Twins are the only other team actively trying to win in 2018.
While the Twins have built a solid, young nucleus. The Indians have star all around the diamond and are one of the most balanced team in the AL. They finished 2017 third in the league in runs scored and first in team ERA with a deep rotation and even deeper bullpen.
Granted, Cleveland’s had some turnover. Carlos Santana, Jay Bruce, Bryan Shaw and Joe Smith are all gone, but the team is still strong.
Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez are two of the best, young stars in the game. Edwin Encarnacion has been a consistently productive bat for years. And, Jason Kipnis is having an excellent Spring Training. If he’s back as a sparkplug to this offense, the sky’s the limit.
On the mound, the one-two punch of Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco is as good as any in the game and then the depth with Trevor Bauer, Mike Clevinger, Josh Tomlin and Danny Salazar gives the Tribe more arms than they know what to do with.
In the bullpen, they’re not nearly as deep as they were, but still better than any other team not named the Yankees. From Andrew Miller to Cody Allen, any game against the Indians is over after seven frames.
As for the Twins, while they did add Logan Morrison, Jake Odorizzi, Addison Reed, Fernando Rodney and Lance Lynn, Minnesota’s odds are still a far cry from Cleveland’s at +400. After the Twins, the other three teams all have odds at least five times as long with the Chicago White Sox at +2000, the Kansas City Royals at +4000 and the Detroit Tigers at +4800.
The Twins were one of eight Major League teams to score at least 800 runs and were first in the AL in second half runs scored. Byron Buxton really turned it on in the second half. He was historically bad at the plate in the first month and was one of the better hitters in the game after the break.
Buxton brings five-tools to the table, but he’s not even the best bat on the team. Brian Dozier, Joe Mauer and now Logan Morrison bring veteran bats, the latter two almost certain to hit 30 homers a piece with Mauer having hit .305 last year. There are other good bats, too, though the loss of Jorge Polanco to a suspension hurts.
The offense is what carried the Twins to the Wild Card last year, but the pitching additions is what makes them a threat to be better in 2018.
Ervin Santana is out which mitigates some of the additions, but provided he returns in short order, he, Jose Berrios, Odorizzi and Lynn form a formidable top-4 while Kyle Gibson and Phil Hughes are experienced depth.
The bullpen is improved, too. Brandon Kintzler was a lockdown closer much of last year. They’ve added the ageless wonder Fernando Rodney to take his place with Addison Reed for insurance. That’s already more depth than 2017.
Across the offense and pitching, the Indians certainly have more name recognition and depth, the Twins have narrowed the gap a bit.
As for the other three teams, they’re all rebuilding. The White Sox have the better odds compared to Kansas City and Detroit simply based on where the Sox are in their rebuild. Kansas City’s rebuild has just begun with the departure of Eric Hosmer and Lorenzo Cain who were replaced by inferior options in Lucas Duda and Jon Jay. Detroit, on the other hand, was just flat out awful in 2017 with little hope for improvement in 2018. Chicago, on the other hand, has a top-tier farm system ready to produce talent.
We’ll see a full season of Yoan Moncada, Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez and Carson Fulmer and we are expecting debuts from Eloy Jimenez, Michael Kopech and maybe even Alec Hansen, Dane Dunning and Zack Collins.
It’s hard to rely on young talent, but with so many top prospects on their way, there’s a chance they become stars quickly and accelerate the White Sox’s rebuild. It’s not a particularly big chance, but it exists.
QUICK PICK
It would be a bit reckless to bet against the Indians to win the AL Central title. Cleveland is so far and away better than any other team.
Of course, at -660, the odds don’t pay all that well for a full year investment, but it’s as close to guaranteed money as you can get in season long futures bets. Cleveland is that good and the rest of the division, that bad.
The Indians were knocked off in the ALDS by the Yankees, but they pushed New York to five games and had an early lead before collapsing. The Indians have the best rotation, one through five—or six, in the American League. They have the best bullpen outside of New York and they have one of the top five offenses as well.
This is a team that strung together 22 straight victories showing they’re a team that, when clicking, is as good as any team in baseball.
If you really want to stray from conventional knowledge, the only other pick even worth the gamble would be the Twins. Obviously, payouts for the White Sox, Royals and Tigers would be greater, but its near impossible to even fathom a scenario where they have a chance at the division.
For the Twins, the scenario is simple: the Indians suffer from injuries. Michael Brantley remains injury prone, Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco each miss half a season and Edwin Encarnacion’s begins his decline at 35. If that happens, the Twins have a solid enough offensive core and deep enough pitching staff—thanks to the offseason acquisitions—to take advantage of the opening provided by the Tribe.
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