One year ago, the American League West was a tossup. The Texas Rangers won the division in 2016 with the Seattle Mariners in second. In 2017, the Houston Astros leap frogged both teams—as did the Los Angeles Angels.
Building from the ground up earlier in the decade, the Astros put together a solid coming of age season in 2015, adding 16-wins to the win total and nabbing a Wild Card spot. The team expected a step forward in 2016, but it didn’t come until last year when Houston took the division by force with 101 wins and a 21-game lead over the Angels to end the season.
Just like that the Rangers’ divisional reign is in the past and Houston looks like an impassable behemoth boasting a deep offense, strong rotation and capable bullpen. Can Houston repeat after their World Series win in 2016 and represent the AL again in the Fall Classic? They’re the odds-on favorites to do so and, consequently, the favorites to take the AL West once again.
Of course, baseball can be a cruel mistress and surprises certainly happen. Still, it would take a ton of injuries and bad years to derail the Astros’ train and allow the Angels, Mariners or Rangers to pass them. Every team in the division—aside from the Astros—has a significant flaw it would need to overcome to even challenge Houston atop the AL West.
ODDS ANALYSIS
There’s the Astros and then everybody else in the AL West. Houston is the defending World Series champions and are better on paper in 2018 than they were in 2017.
It should be no surprise that Houston is the sizeable division favorites once again. They won 101 games are improved on last year’s roster that won the division by 21 games. As such, the -500 odds seem generous if anything.
The oddsmakers expect the division to finish with the Astros on top followed by the Los Angeles Angels, Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers and Oakland Athletics. That’s a pretty common expectation. The Angels and Mariners both have odds less than +1000 with Los Angeles at +500 and Seattle at +950. The Astros stand in a league by themselves with Seattle and L.A. forming the next grouping. There’s a gap between them and the Rangers at +2700 and A’s at +3300.
For Houston, a starting rotation of Justin Verlander, Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers, Gerrit Cole and Charlie Morton mean that Brad Peacock and Colin McHugh are just depth. Both will help improve the bullpen, too, which remains the sole question on the roster given how A.J. Hinch lost trust in the unit in the 2017 postseason.
Offensively, nobody could come close to the production that the Astros put up last year. They’re the same team as last year save Carlos Beltran who was more of a coach than a player when it was all said and done.
This team has the reining AL MVP in Jose Altuve and ten players with at least 250 plate appearances and an OPS+ of at least 109. Eight of those ten players had an OPS+ of at least 122 and four were north of 140. All in all, this is just a stacked team. Their talent in the minors is strong enough, too, to allow the team to add at the trade deadline in case of injury of ineffectiveness as well as plug holes throughout the year with capable young players.
Houston being the huge favorites, obviously makes sense. The Angels being second is logical, too.
Los Angeles made some nice moves in the offseason to bring in Zack Cozart, Ian Kinsler and Shohei Ohtani.
Cozart, Andrelton Simmons and Kinsler from third to second is an exceptionally strong defensive infield. Mike Trout, Justin Upton and Kole Calhoun in the outfield and Martin Maldanado behind the plate rounds out the elite defense.
The offense is also improved with the additions. It’s hard to know what to expect from Ohtani at the plate, but Cozart, Kinsler and a full season of Upton are upgrades and helps protect Trout who continues to improve against all odds.
The Angels aren’t the Astros at the plate, but they’ve narrowed the gap that led to 21 fewer wins for Los Angeles.
On the mound, the difference between the two teams is wider. The Angels’ rotation will features six starters, all of whom are questions. Maybe Ohtani dominates. Maybe Garrett Richards and Tyler Skaggs stay healthy. Maybe JC Ramirez builds off last year. That’s a lot of maybes, far too many to close a 21-game difference.
For Seattle, the questions are primarily in the rotation, too. The Mariners lineup is good. Dee Gordon’s looked good in his move to the outfield. He’s a huge stolen base threat and excellent table setter. He and Jean Segura in front of Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz and Kyle Seager is a recipe for success.
On the mound, James Paxton needs to stay healthy to establish himself as a top of the rotation starter. The Mariners need him to be just that, too. Felix Hernandez, although still key to the starting five, has been on a decline for years. From there, the rest of the rotation is just mediocre with cast-offs like Mike Leake, Erasmo Ramirez and Marco Gonzales.
The odds for the last two teams lump the two together as Texas and Oakland are each extreme long shots.
The Rangers are building an unconventional rotation in hopes of competing. They’ve added cast offs like Doug Fister and Matt Moore and are transitioning Mike Minor from successful reliever back into a starter at the rest of a $30M investment. Meanwhile, they’ve added Tim Lincecum to the bullpen on a Major League deal despite having not pitched in over a year.
Interestingly, the A’s may be the better pick of the two. Oakland could surprise some folks. The rotation holds this team back. The pitching prospects aren’t ready yet leaving the rotation short, but Billy Beane quietly added a few nice bullpen pieces, signed Jonathan Lucroy on the cheap and traded for Stephen Piscotty to compliment youngsters like Matt Olson, Matt Chapman and Dustin Fowler.
QUICK PICK
The -500 MLB betting line given to the Astros is the second largest given to any divisional favorite. The only one larger is the Indians. There’s a pretty good reason for that, too: it’s nearly impossible to fathom a scenario that leads to the Astros’ demise.
For the Angels or Mariners or any other team to top the Astros, not only would that specific team need to exceed expectations, but the Astros would need to falter and open an opportunity for another team to jump in and grab the division. That’s a highly unlikely scenario given all the depth the Astros have around the diamond. This team can withstand a collection of injuries and still be the best in the division.
Marwin Gonzalez affords the Astros plenty of flexibility. He can move around the field, filling holes and opening at bats for Jake Marisnick, Derek Fisher and J.D. Davis.
While any bet for Houston won’t yield a ton of return, it’s the smart bet, the safe bet. Anything else would be a hope and dream. Bank the Astros at BookMaker and make some easy dough. Or, if you’d prefer, you can take the longer shots with a few Hail Mary bets.
The Angels are the logical second choice. Ohtani could dominate, Richards could stay health and the rotation could provide enough to allow the offense to take care of the rest. They’re much more of a threat for a Wild Card than the division, however.
If you’re going to go for the longshot, the A’s might be your best bet. In the off-chance they do win, they’ll provide the most profit and this team will sneak up on some people. The pitching staff is where they’re shy, but from the group of Kendall Graveman, Sean Manaea and Paul Blackburn, there are some quality Major League arms. Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson are interesting minor league signings. Meanwhile, if A.J. Puk can push his way to the big club and produce, that instantly improves the rotation.
While dreaming on the A’s is a fun imaginative experiment. In the end, keep it simple and bet on the Astros.
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