After a World Series win in 2016, the Chicago Cubs had a World Series hangover that lasted through the first half of the season. That allowed the Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals to stay in the race for the National League Central division throughout the season. Still, the Cubbies eventually took hold of the division, winning 92 games and finishing six games ahead of the Brewers.
Milwaukee and St. Louis will again challenge the Cubs for the division crown while the Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds are considerably behind the top three clubs on paper.
The Cubs will be favored to win the division again in 2018 after back-to-back division titles, but the Cardinals are perennial contenders have won the division three straight years before the Cubs took hold of the Central. Dating back to 2011, four of the five teams have won the division with the Pittsburgh Pirates the lone exception.
The National League’s 2017 division winners are all sizeable favorites to repeat in 2018, but of the three division winners, the Cubs may be the most at risk with the Brewers and Cardinals each making notable additions in the offseason.
ODDS ANALYSIS
In 2017, the Brewers were the surprise team from this division. Picked to finish at the bottom of the division along with the Cincinnati Reds, the Brew Crew got solid pitching and quality offense, finishing in second place, six games back of the division winning Cubs and just a game back of the Colorado Rockies for the second Wild Card.
Otherwise, the division played out as expected. Despite a slow start, the Cubs ended up winning the division by a sizeable margin, the Cardinals finished in the hunt and over-.500 but were noticeable short compared to their rivals in the Windy City. As for the Pirates and Reds, they finished well out of contention with Pittsburgh sliding back on and the Reds pitching failing at every turn.
The odds have the division ending up basically the same way. The Cubs are the heavy favorites at -335. From there, the Brewers and Cardinals are the only semi-realistic competitors. Milwaukee is favored only slightly over St. Louis at +415 compared to +445. After that, the Pirates are nothing more than Hail Mary plays with the Reds at +3300 and the Pirates surprisingly behind after trading away Andrew McCutchen and Gerrit Cole at +4000.
In the offseason, the Reds mostly stood pat, the Pirates shed themselves of their most recognizable hitter and pitcher while the Brewers, Cardinals and Cubs all added to the mix.
On paper, the Brewers took the biggest step forward, adding Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich to an already strong outfield mix that included Domingo Santana, Ryan Braun, Keon Broxton and Brett Phillips. Now the outfield is five deep and Braun is taking grounders at first which already has a 31-homer bat in Eric Thames.
The Brewers are deep on offense and can withstand the inevitable injury. With the plethora of outfielders, the team also now has flexibility in the infield with Braun, Thames, and Jesus Aguilar along with a middle infield comprised of Jonathan Villar, Oralndo Arcia, Eric Sogard, Hernan Perez and Travis Shaw.
Speaking of Shaw, he quietly had a monster season at third with a .862 OPS, 31 homers and 101 RBIs.
The offense is good and the pitching really carried this team in 2017, but the rotation could use another guy at the top end with Jimmy Nelson injured. They’re still in the mix for another free agent starter which would only help to improve their chances.
As for the Cardinals, they made a big move early with the addition of Marcell Ozuna. The slugging outfielder gives St. Louis a sorely needed middle of the order bat, but the Cardinals—much to the dismay of St. Louis fans—basically stopped after that addition. The team is stacked with young starting pitching and has a balanced lineup with the addition of Ozuna, but the bullpen is lacking and was a source of turmoil last year. They added Luke Gregerson who is a wily veteran, but he’s slated as their closer and is hardly a reliable answer in that role. Compared to the Brewers, the Cards took a step back.
The Cubs moves, meanwhile, do well to keep pace with those made by Milwaukee. The team lost Jake Arrieta who is a big game pitcher, but replace him with Yu Darvish who has great regular season numbers. He’ll help the team get back to the postseason. They also added Tyler Chatwood to give them a deeper rotation than last year.
Like St. Louis, the bullpen is a question in the ninth as the Cubs added Brandon Morrow and handed him the closer’s role. He’s a better fit in that spot than Gregerson, but is a step down—at least in terms of predictability—compared to last year’s closer, Wade Davis. Still, Morrow and Steve Cishek help deep the unit overall.
Really, the only weak link in Chicago is the leadoff spot. Dexter Fowler and Jon Jay filled the role in season’s past. Now, Ian Happ is the odds-on favorite to lead off most games though he’s not exactly a high OBP guy. He’ll also share playing time with Albert Almora Jr., Ben Zobrist and others.
As for the bottom two teams, their long odds seem about right. The Reds do have a solid offensive core built around the ever-dependable Joey Votto, but the pitching was atrocious last year. They have a bit more optimism in that department in 2018, but the unit remains light.
As for the Pirates, it’s rebuilding time in Pittsburgh. Corey Dickerson is an interesting add and helps defray the loss of McCutchen, but the rotation hasn’t developed as expected.
QUICK PICK
The obvious choice to win the division is the Cubs. While picking Chicago won’t need you much of a profit without a sizeable investment, the Cubs are the heavy favorites for good reason. The team is deep in talent all over the field. They have the positional talent to match up favorably with any team and the pitching that puts them in front of the Brewers and the Cardinals.
Chicago has been rather fortunate in terms of injuries the last few years so an injury bug could put things out of whack for the team in the North Siders, but even then, there is enough depth across the board to overcome it.
This team boasts at least seven players capable of hitting 25-homers and has one of the best corner infield tandems in baseball with Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant, both top-20 talents. Willson Contreras is also a superstar in the making behind the plate while Kyle Schwarber is just a pure hitter, positioned for a bounce back season.
This is not a team to get cute on and bet against. We saw them struggled last year. The first half was basically a worst-case scenario of struggles for this team and they still won the division going away.
If you need to put money on a different team, the Brewers are the next best bet. They have some flaws and don’t have the pure talent—particularly on the mound—as the Cubs do, but they don’t have as big of a flaw as the Cardinal’s bullpen either. The Brewers are also one of the favorites to land one of the trio of top-end starters still on the free agent market. Such a move pushes everyone back a spot and knocks the likes of Wade Miley or Yovani Gallardo out of the rotation. Until Nelson is healthy, it’s that back of the rotation that’s the biggest weakness right now and one more starter goes a long way in covering it.
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