The National League has won five of the last eight World Series, but while a different team has represented the NL in the Fall Classic the last three years, the previous five years, the NL has been represented by either the San Francisco Giants or the St. Louis Cardinals. Until the last couple years, the league was rather predictable. Going back further, there was a seven year stretch where the NL pennant winner was either the Giants, Cardinals or Philadelphia Phillies.
On paper, it appears almost as straight forward as the even year Giants from 2010 through 2014. Every other year it was San Fran. Don’t look now, but it’s 2018, another even year.
More realistically, the chances of winning the NL pennant fall to one of three teams: the three most likely to win their respective divisions. All three divisions were won by at least six games with the NL East taken by 20 and NL West by 11 even with the Los Angeles Dodgers limping to the regular season finish line.
ODDS ANALYSIS
The Dodgers, Chicago Cubs and Washington Nationals each won their divisions in 2017. These were the three clear favorites heading into the 2017 postseason and remain the three favorites to win the National League pennant in 2018.
The Dodgers took the NL title last year and currently sit just behind the Astros to win the World Series in 2018 after winning 104 games and pushing Houston to Game Seven this past October. They’re tops for the NL pennant at +257. They’re the reigning NL champs so it only makes sense that, based on the odds, they’re the team to beat.
With odds very close at +329 and +390 respectively, the Washington Nationals and Chicago Cubs are in a similar position to L.A. These three teams are expected playoff teams in 2018 and while there is some competition in the NL Central and NL West, the NL East seems a bit barren unless you buy into the New York Mets.
We’ve grown accustom to postseason turnover in baseball, but it seems unlikely that either of these three teams would miss October baseball in 2018 without significant injuries.
Amongst the other rankings, the Giants may be the most interesting. While the Giants made many noteworthy moves, opting to add more veterans to an already old team after it finished dead last in the NL last year, San Francisco is still in a division with three playoff teams from 2017 and has to make up a ton of ground after a terrible season.
A full year of Madison Bumgarner and better seasons from Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija would make a big difference in the standings along with the power they added in Evan Longoria and Andrew McCutchen, but San Fran is currently sitting with the fourth best odds to win the NL pennant at +1078. Even with the moves, that seems far fetched.
Granted, that’s quite a gap from the top dogs, but it’s still above teams like the Milwaukee Brewers, the Cardinals, the Arizona Diamondbacks, and the Colorado Rockies, all winners of—or contenders for—the Wild Card in 2017.
The Giants do have the pedigree that comes from three World Series titles since 2010 and it is an even year, but do they have the players to truly compete? Does San Fran have the depth?
Beyond the top three all sitting with odds of +390 or less, the next group which includes the Giants, the 2017 Wild Card contenders listed above and the Mets all sit between +1078 and +1700, forming another interesting clumping. Of that group, the Mets last won the pennant in 2015, the Giants in 2014, the Cardinals in 2013, the Rockies in 2007, and the Diamondbacks in 2001. The Brewers have never won the pennant.
Looking at the rebuilding clubs, the Phillies, surprisingly, find themselves closer to the middle than to teams like the Miami Marlins and Cincinnati Reds pulling up the rear. The oddsmakers are buying into the Phillies’ rebuild, at least partially.
Philadelphia could make the jump to second in a weak division but neither they, nor any other team ticketed for a losing season, seems realistic enough to back.
QUICK PICK
One big key to winning the pennant is making it to the postseason.
While the Dodgers are the favorites based on the odds, Los Angeles also plays in deep division that produced three playoff teams in 2017. All three have playoff aspirations in 2018. Meanwhile, the two that finished at the bottom have made strides forward. The Padres have a solid core of young players breaking into The Show and added one of the best positional free agents in Eric Hosmer. The Giants have added a plethora of their own stars including Andrew McCutchen and Evan Longoria.
The Cubs’ division is tough, too. The Cardinals and Brewers each added to their rosters in an effort of catching Chicago and figure to compete for the postseason. Meanwhile, the only competition for the Nationals would be a Mets team if—and that’s a big, if—the rotation can hold up.
With less of a barrier to return to October, the Nationals are a strong bet to win the NL pennant. Of course, Washington would need to get over the hurdle of winning a postseason series. They’ve yet to advance past the NLDS. That’s a mental order that they’ll need to overcome.
If you’re looking to strike it big going for a team with longer odds, the Brewers are an interesting pick the Dodgers, Nationals, Cubs, Giants, Diamondbacks and Cardinals are all favored ahead of Milwaukee based on the BookMaker odds, but the Brewers are all-in on 2018. They traded for Christian Yelich, added Lorenzo Cain and still could add to a pitching staff that surprised everyone last year.
The Rockies are another interesting team at +1700, they’re the longest shot of all returning playoff teams. They have a solid crop of young starters and bulked up their bullpen over the winter. The bullpen was the secret to the 2007 National League Champion Rookies. Could they use the same formula and get back to the Fall Classic?
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