As of August 25, 2017, the Los Angeles Dodgers were running away with the Nationals League West division and on pace to win a record number of games. Up by 21 games over the Arizona Diamondbacks, the Dodgers were 91-36 and had lost back-to-back games just twice since the middle of May.
From there, the Dodgers slid to the finish line, but still ended up 104-58, 11 games up on the Diamondbacks and 17 games up on the Colorado Rockies. Both the D-Backs and Rockies, however, made the Wild Card giving the division three returning playoff teams. Meanwhile, the San Francisco Giants added on in the offseason and figure to compete in 2018, it is an even-year after all.
With the San Diego Padres the lone team out of the running before the season begins, the Dodgers remain the favorites to win the division for the sixth straight season, but the competition is plentiful.
ODDS ANALYSIS
The Dodgers led baseball with 104-wins and game within a game of winning the World Series, falling to the Houston Astros in seven games. They’ve the early favorites to win the National League pennant and the favorites to win the NL West, but—amongst the NL division favorites—are the most likely to fall out of the divisional top-spot per the odds.
At just -245, the Dodgers’ odds to take the NL West again in 2018 are the lowest of the returning NL division champs. Nevertheless, odds makers still see Los Angeles coming out with their sixth straight division crown over the likes of Arizona, Colorado and San Francisco.
While the Diamondbacks and Rockies both reach postseason play last year and the Giants posted the worst record in the NL, San Francisco is—miraculously—favored ahead of either the D-Backs of Rockies to knock off the Dodgers though all three teams are lumped very closely. The Giants’ odds at the division crown sit at +530 at BookMaker Sportsbook while both Arizona and Colorado are at +550.
Well behind the first four, the Padres’ odds are at +4500 as San Diego is seeing little action even after the signing of Eric Hosmer and the announcement of the Padres having the top overall farm system according to MLB Pipeline.
While Fernando Tatis Jr., McKenzie Gore and Luis Urias are all on the horizon in sunny San Diego making the future look bright, the present remains bleak as the Padres remain a few years away from being a legitimate threat in a deep and talented division.
As for the other four teams, a case can be made for each which is why aside from the Dodgers being favored, the other three are lumped together.
At the top, the Dodgers have the best pitcher in the game in Clayton Kershaw, a deep rotation around him, several relievers leading to the best closer in the game all on top of a deep and talented lineup.
This team can score runs with the best of them and ranked first in the NL in run prevention in 2017.
As for the other three squads, the Giants have the most ground to make up after 2017. They had a bad season start to finish. Madison Bumgarner was injured as was Johnny Cueto. The rotation—based on the names—should be much better. Bumgarner and Cueto are top of the rotation arms able to match up with Kershaw and Rich Hill in L.A. on a good day. From there Jeff Samardzija pitched well in 2017 based on peripherals though his ERA wasn’t great.
The bullpen in San Francisco was a weakness the last couple years, but a healthy Mark Melancon coupled with Tony Watson, Sam Dyson, Hunter Strickland and Corey Gearrin turns it into a strength.
Meanwhile, the Giants opted to add veterans to the lineup while the rest of the league is getting younger. The age of the team doesn’t bode well for a couple years in the future, but for now Evan Longoria and Andrew McCutchen add much needed thump to a powerless lineup.
The D-Backs and Rockies each took steps forward in 2017. Arizona will feel the loss of J.D. Martinez, but a full season of Steven Souza Jr. makes up the difference of a half year of Martinez. Archie Bradley in the closer’s role is an upgrade over Fernando Rodney while Brad Boxberger is a nice addition.
In Colorado, it all comes down to the young rotation. The starters started to tire late in 2017, but the homegrown rotation is good enough to turn things over to a deep bullpen that’s reminiscent of the pen that led the 2007 Rockies all the way to the Fall Classic. Wade Davis, Jake McGee, Bryan Shaw and Adam Ottavino is a dynamic quartet while MVP candidates Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado anchor an offense that will not be short on runs.
QUICK PICK
The Dodgers, of course, are the safe bet. They’ve won five straight division titles, are the reigning NL champions and have the best starter in the game, a deep lineup and quality bullpen. It’s hard to pick apart Los Angeles. They have the depth to withstand a plethora of injuries and just keep plugging along.
That said, the division is stacked in 2018 and there’s certainly more than a chance another team can sneak into the top spot as the top four teams beat up on the Padres and each other through 162 fun filled games.
Despite the love bettors are giving the Giants to bounce back after a last place finish in 2017, be weary of the rebuilt team in San Francisco. The Giants have added some name recognition and have added some power, but much of the lure of the Giants in 2018 is based on it being an even-numbered season. It’s a nice story and fun to talk about, but not really a good factor to consider when wagering.
The Giants are improved, sure, but they have a long way to go to beat the Diamondbacks or Rockies, let alone the Dodgers.
Instead, the Rockies and Diamondbacks are both quality non-Dodger picks. Arizona may be the better option, but a bullpen heavy Rockies team in guaranteed to score runs in Coors Field. They only need five-to-six solid innings for their starters a night to be one of the NL’s better teams. The rotation is still young, but Kyle Freeland pitched well in Colorado. A full season of Jon Gray and Chad Bettis along with Tyler Anderson and German Marquez gives the Rockies a quality arm night-in and night-out.
For the Diamondbacks, they got elite starting pitching last year and return the same names. Their issue is in the bullpen beyond Bradley and Boxberger. Yoshihisa Hirano out of Japan is a question mark as he transitions stateside, but has the stuff to really bolster the late innings.
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