Heading into 2018, we’re in a golden age for memorable World Series with back-to-back seven game series. Better yet, three of the last four series have gone the distance. We don’t always have such drama and excitement, but there’s no denying we’ve had some classics in recent seasons.
It seems of late that the differences between the teams at the top have become narrower and with a handful of ‘super teams’ and a number in the rebuilding camp. As a result, deciding who will win divisions—baring serious injuries—becomes easier, but deciding who will win it all is much less certain with a handful of serious contenders.
Making things more difficult to differentiate teams at the top is a groupthink mentality in the game, leaving executives to take very similar approaches in building teams. Picking out a team’s unique strengths and weaknesses compared to the rest of the league, as a result, is a much more tedious on-paper affair. That said, we all know the game is not played on paper, causing several variables that are hard to anticipate.
ODDS ANALYSIS
After a whirlwind of a World Series, the Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers return in 2018 as the preseason favorites to go back to the Fall Classic for their respective leagues and, obviously, remain the two favorites to win it all in 2018.
Both the Astros and the Dodgers are deep and have the talent and team necessary to replicate their 2017 success, but they’re in no way the only ones capable of hoisting the World Series trophy come October.
Houston is the favorite at +527 at BookMaker with Los Angeles just behind at +571. After those two, the New York Yankees, Washington Nationals, Cleveland Indians and Chicago Cubs are the only other teams with odds below the Red Sox’s +977. Excluding the Sox, all six other teams have odds of -153 or better to win their divisions, giving them an expected path to October. While Wild Card teams can win—and have won—the World Series, it’s obviously much easier without the one-and-done play-in game. Still, as the saying goes, anything can happen in October.
Getting to October is key to having a chance at the World Series title and the six expected division winners, along with the Red Sox, seem the most likely to make the 2018 postseason.
The odds seem in line what reasonable expectations, but there are a few longer shots that standout. At +3683, the Minnesota Twins are well behind the Los Angeles Angels at +2700 and yet the Twins were playoff team in 2017 and the Angels were not. The Twins could also look different come opening day as they’re still looking at another starting pitcher and just added Logan Morrison, too.
In the NL, the Milwaukee Brewers may be the best longshot pick. The starting rotation overperformed expectations last year, but they’re still getting undersold. This front office is in win-now mode after acquisitions of Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain. They have the talent to obtain a key player at the trade deadline and have the resources to add some money to beef up the pitching staff. Their odds sit at +3339, well behind the St. Louis Cardinals at +2350, the New York Mets at +2972 and the San Francisco Giants at +2203. The Giants ended 2017 with the worst record in the NL and the Mets were clearly sellers at the deadline.
While the odds at the top and bottom seem about right, the teams in the middle vying for Wild Card spots if the season plays out according to the script, is where the best value can be found.
QUICK PICK
The expected division winners are all solid picks to win the World Series in 2018. With 30 teams and 162 games each, it’s a longshot to win regardless of who you back, but the Yankees, Indians, Astros, Nationals, Cubs and Dodgers—and even the Red Sox—are strong bets to at least get a chance. Delving deeper, however, the Astros seems unlikely as the last team to win back-to-back World Series was the 2000 Yankees. That’s 17 straight seasons without a back-to-back winner despite teams like the 2018 Cubs and 2001 Yankees entering their respective seasons as favorites.
As for some of the other contenders, the Nationals have a strong top of the rotation, but they’ve yet to get over the hump of the division series. They need to figure out how to win a series in October before they can be counted on to win three. The
If you want a strong chance to win it all, the Yankees are a good bet. They’re in a division with the Sox giving them the most expected competition of the anticipated division winners, but they have the strong rotation, deep and powerful lineup, and stacked bullpen needed to navigate the postseason. They also came within a game of the World Series in 2017 when they weren’t supposed to be nearly that good. Besides, this is a team with 27 World Series wins, but just one in the last 17 seasons.
For a longer shot pick, the Brewers are an interesting option. They are going for it. They have no postseason pedigree to hold the hats on like the Bronx Bombers, but they do have a good young rotation, have built up the bullpen and have assembled a strong offense with plenty of power, but the ability to score without the longball.
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