ODDS ANALYSIS
Following a seven-game road trip to St. Louis and Milwaukee that saw Chicago win just twice, many were convinced their hot start was a fluke. The Cubs are back to being the talk of the town after a four-game sweep of NL East-leading New York. The Cubs and Pirates meet in Wrigley for the second time in two weeks after Chicago took two of three Apr. 27-29. The clubs also split a four-game set in Pittsburgh Apr. 20-23.
The teams are closely matched with the Cubs up 1.21 units in their first seven games with Pittsburgh and 2.12 units on the season. Chicago, though, has been a disaster on the runline going 13-21 down 9.71 units and is 5-13 at home. The over is 15-14-5 through Chicago’s first 34 games and 3-2-2 in the season series.
We thought the Pirates had it all figured out with a four-game winning streak that included a pair of wins over division-leading St. Louis. But after taking the first two from Philadelphia, the Buccos dropped the next two falling below .500 again before their meeting with the red-hot Cubs. Pittsburgh is in the red 3.8 units on the moneyline and 4.51 units on the runline and an offensive breakdown has the under at 4-1 in the Bucs last five and 11-5-3 on the road this season.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Pittsburgh’s Gerrit Cole (5-1, 2.32 ERA) held the Phillies to two runs and six hits with six strikeouts in seven innings Monday earning his fifth win of the season. He’s given up just one home run in his last 45.2 innings on the road.
Cole doesn’t have to flash back far for his last win at Wrigley Field, where he didn’t give up an earned run in six innings with eight strikeouts in an 8-1 win on Apr. 29. He’s won all six of career starts against the Cubs with a 2.92 ERA and 1.14 WHIP with 45 strikeouts in 37 innings.
Jon Lester (3-2, 4.10 ERA) has won his last three starts after a 4-3 decision over the Mets on Monday where he allowed three runs on five hits with six strikeouts in six innings. He’s 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA in May after going 0-2 with a 6.23 ERA in four April starts.
Lester will face the Pirates for the first time this season and second in his career. He had a quality start with two earned runs and five strikeouts in six innings in a loss during the 2011 season.
QUOTE TO NOTE
“That’s why you want a guy like him on your staff. Typically, his stuff kept getting better as the game progressed, we’ve seen that a lot. I thought his cutter became more pertinent later in the game. He made good pitches when he had to. He keeps making positive strides and that’s good for us.” – Cubs manager Joe Maddon on Jon Lester after his last start
LIVE BETTING or SITUATIONAL BETTING
The Cubs believe that no deficit is too big for them to overcome. They’re starting to back up that belief with their play on the field. The Cubs rallied from four runs down to beat the Mets 6-5 on Thursday, completing the first four-game sweep of New York since 1992. “When we get down nobody’s panicking, nobody’s saying, ‘we can’t do this,’” manager Joe Maddon said. Chicago also scored single runs in the eighth and ninth innings Wednesday to claim a 2-1 win. Pittsburgh has experienced Chicago’s comeback ability, failing to hold an 8-5 lead after seven innings on Apr. 21. The Cubs scored four times in the final two frames, including three in the ninth, to get the 9-8 victory. So don’t count the Cubbies out if they’re trailing in the later stages.
PROP TALK
Chicago’s Anthony Rizzo has cemented his status as a top first baseman in all of baseball and is enjoying the best season of his five-year career. Rizzo is building off his breakout 2014 season when he smacked 32 home runs and is a veteran leader on the club at the ripe age of 25. He’s played in every game with a .336 average, seven homers and 20 RBIs and is the only player on the roster with more walks than strikeouts. Rizzo’s hit safely in seven straight games and 14 of 15 entering the series with an OPS of 1.067 and hasn’t gone more than two games without a hit since the opening week of the season. He’s one of a few Cubs to have some success against Gerrit Cole and we like him to get a few hits with an extra-base knock tossed in.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
A struggling offense has kept the Pirates from making a move in the NL Central and the longer it takes Andrew McCutcheon to find his stroke the longer Pittsburgh flounders in the standings. Cutch isn’t the only one having difficulties at the dish however, with regulars Pedro Alvarez, Josh Harrison and Jordy Mercer all hovering around the Mendoza Line. With Gerrit Cole on the bump the Bucs may not need a lot of runs to get a victory. The team is 5-2 in his seven starts and Cole was dazzling in an 8-1 Pirates win at Wrigley Field on Apr. 29.
Improved pitching from members of the bullpen, timely hitting and late-inning theatrics carried the Cubs to a four-game sweep of the East-leading New York Mets. Now they hope the stretch of impressive play continues so they can make a run at the Cardinals atop the division. It took a while to get accustomed to the NL but starter Jon Lester is doing what the Cubs expected him to. He’s had quality starts in his last four outings getting three wins and we should see a duel between starters on Saturday. Cole has been the better hurler this season and we know the Pirates will eventually break out of their slump.
Pittsburgh 4, Chicago 3
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