Texas and Boston were the favorites in the division series, but Cleveland and Toronto advance, each with plenty of rest after sweeping their respective division series matchups.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Indians have the 4-3 edge in the season series, but overall the Blue Jays have outscored Cleveland by 14 total runs in those seven games.
The last time these two teams met at Progressive Field, Toronto came away with a staggering 17-1 win.
In the division series, the Jays dominated Texas, but the Boston versus Cleveland series was a bit closer. Sure, the Indians swept the Sox, but two of those games were one run affairs.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Look for the Indians to turn to their ace to lead them to a strong start at home against Toronto.
Corey Kluber should get the ball. He’ll be on a bit of extended rest having last pitched in Game 2 of the ALDS last Friday.
Kluber handled the Red Sox in that ALDS start, shutting them out over seven innings, but he did admit to some mild pain in his quad that caused some issues pushing off the mound. It didn’t play into his performance and shouldn’t be a huge factor on Friday either.
The 30-year old right-hander was the AL Cy Young Award winner two years ago and will be in the discussion again this season after going 18-9 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.056 WHIP in 215 innings pitched. He recorded two shutouts and led the league in ERA+ at 149 and FIP at 3.26.
The concern, however, is he allowed seven runs on 13 hits in 10 innings against Toronto this season. Though Boston is another strong offense that faired reasonably well against him in the regular season and he shut them out.
In actuality, Kluber’s season against Toronto breaks down into one good and one bad start. The good one came at home where the Indians will battle the Jays on Friday. That was also the most recent start against him. In that game, he held Toronto to two runs in six and two-thirds innings.
Much like the Indians, a sweep in the ALDS will give Toronto plenty of rest, but unlike the injury riddled rotation of Cleveland, that rest will give manager John Gibbons plenty of options in the rotation. Aaron Sanchez would be on normal rest while J.A. Happ, Marco Estrada and Marcus Stroman would also be well rested.
Over the final 21 games of the regular season, the Jays’ rotation pitched to a 2.08 ERA, the best in baseball. That helped cover for a bullpen that choked though the pen has picked it up since the start of the playoffs after a nice showing in the marathon Wild Card game.
All in all, with the Toronto rotation going well, all the options are good ones and all give the team a chance to win, but it looks like Marco Estrada will get another Game 1 nod.
The 33-year old right-hander ended the regular season going 9-9 with a 3.48 ERA and 1.119 WHIP. He pitched a masterful game in the division series against Texas, going 8.1 innings, allowing just the one run on four hits while walking nobody and striking out six.
Counting that division series performance, Estrada has now pitched four straight games allowing no more than one run. Cleveland, however, did touch him up for a pair of home runs, scoring three in five innings in their last shot against him back on July 2.
LIVE BETTING
Cleveland got just 16.2 innings from its starters in the three games against the Red Sox. Those starters did well, but were given short leashes and Terry Francona utilized his secret weapon early and often: Andrew Miller.
The Indians have a deceptively good offense that played well, too, averaging five runs per game in the division series. They’ve got a team of contributors up and down the order with a nice blend of power, speed and OBP.
The real story of their division series victory, however, was the pitching’s ability to hold the sports’ best offense to seven runs in three games. That brings us back to Miller and the Cleveland bullpen.
Between Miller, Bryan Shaw and Cody Allen the Indians have a threesome reminiscent of the Royals’ of the last two years. One key difference is Miller’s flexibility. The southpaw can be brought in at any point for key outs and used for a varying number of outs. But can the Jays’ lineup neutralize this important weapon?
Toronto is a very right-handed heavy offense which does negate some of Millers’ effectiveness. They’ve also hit him well collectively. The Jay’s current roster has combined to post a .911 OPS against him with a .582 slugging percentage and seven home runs.
Melvin Upton Jr. could be a crucial weapon late in the game. He’s 5-for-12 against Miller in his career with three home runs. Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and Dioner Navarro have all also gone yard against him.
If Miller isn’t the ‘secret’ weapon in the ALCS based on matchups, Cody Allen is lock down in the ninth and maybe Danny Salazar will be that weapon. The injured starter may be on the ALCS roster in the bullpen with a reduced arsenal of pitches.
QUICK PICK
The Jays have the advantage in the depth of their starting pitching, but Kluber can matchup with anybody Toronto will throw. Cleveland needs big starts from Kluber when he’s on the mound and they also need innings as the bullpen will be active in the other games. As a result, look for Francona to give Kluber a bit of extra rope in Game 1. Kluber should deliver; as should Estrada.
Count on a low scoring game, but with the Indians at home where they won 65.4-percent of their regular season contests; take the Tribe to beat the Indians on the strength of its bullpen and diversity of the lineup. Toronto has a good lineup, too, but is very right-handed heavy which could be exploited. And, while they’ve got power, they don’t run the bases as well as Cleveland who can use their legs to help manufacture runs. That’s big in a game likely to be a pitchers’ duel.
MLB Odds: Indians 4, Blue Jays 3
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