Cleveland took the first game of the series and will try to bump that lead to two games before heading north of the border to where the crowd will be just as ruckus in the favor of the Jays. The Indians could count on Kluber in Game 1, but will need the offense to step up in Game 2.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
We’re dealing with two of the league’s better offensive teams, but pitching was the highlight in Game 1. Corey Kluber was able to hold the Jays scoreless through 6.1 innings despite some issues early and Andrew Miller and Cody Allen took care of the rest.
As for the little offense that we did see on Friday, that was provided by the five-tool shortstop, Francisco Lindor who is one of a deep lineup. Other than that, both teams were quiet at the plate. That won’t hold up in this series. Toronto has plenty of fire power and the Indians quietly scored the fifth most runs in the league during the regular season.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
As if the Indians’ rotation wasn’t beat up and tattered enough, Cleveland will turn to Josh Tomlin in Game 2 after Trevor Bauer was pushed back due to a finger injury.
Tomlin ended the season with a 13-9 record, 4.40 ERA and 1.190 WHIP. The 31-year old right-hander is a command artist and is always in the strike zone; almost to a fault.
The righty led the league with a walk rate of one per nine innings and thus has a 5.9 strikeout to walk rate in spite of a low strikeout total. Expect plenty of contact by the Jays who will look to be aggressive early in the counts to take advantage of all the strikes.
Tomlin made his postseason debut in the clinching Game 3 of the ALDS. He pitched only five innings in the game, but did his job, giving up two runs on four hits and one walk.
The strong outing in Boston was his fifth straight good outing. In his last four starts of the regular season, he allowed more than one run just once, giving up two to the Royals in 7.1 innings.
The recent trends are encouraging, but this isn’t a starter with dominating stuff and one that can be hit hard if his command is off. He had five straight losses in August and saw his ERA balloon to 11.48 in six starts that month. He had a 1.69 ERA in the last month.
Other than the August numbers, another area of concern is his numbers against the Jays head-to-head. He’s allowed seven runs on 16 hits, including four homers in 10.1 innings.
While the Indians hope for a good start from a mediocre pitcher, the Jays will look for a strong outing by a Cy Young contender: J.A. Happ.
Happ ended the season with 20 wins, going 20-4 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.169 WHIP. He allows many more walks than Tomlin, but he also gives up fewer hits and strikes out more, helping him get out of jams better.
Happ threw the ball well in Texas. He, like Tomlin, didn’t go deep in the game, lasting only five innings, but he got the win, giving up one run despite nine hits as he did the high wire act.
Toronto will hope a lefty on the mound helps against an Indians team with mediocre season numbers against southpaws. The last time Happ faced the Tribe, he allowed one run in seven innings. And he, like Tomlin, has been on a nice roll heading into the postseason, too, not allowing more than two runs in five straight regular season games to end the season.
LIVE BETTING
The Indians’ formula is pretty simple: a deep lineup that can score in a number of different ways from anywhere in the order and an bullpen that requires the starting staff to produce just enough.
Well, there was a concern about the bullpen heading into the series considering Toronto’s gaudy numbers against Cleveland’s biggest bullpen weapon: Andrew Miller. He performed admirably in his first test, going an inning and a third, recording all five outs on strikeouts.
Miller and Allen each did pitch on Friday, but they’re both fine to go again on Saturday, though Miller may be a bit limited after tossing 31 pitches.
Across the way, the Blue Jays didn’t use any bullpen arms so they’re plenty rested, but are they too rested after several days off before this series? Does it really matter given their bullpen is at a disadvantage compared to Cleveland.
QUICK PICK
Bank on this game featuring plenty more runs than Game 1. Tomlin is a guy that could give Cleveland five okay innings, but Toronto will score against him and with Miller weakened with his work in Game 1, there’s an opportunity for the Jays to get out of Cleveland with a split.
Happ on the other side is certainly the better pitcher given their numbers over the past year. He also has a rested pen behind him giving Gibbons plenty of managerial options, but sometimes too much rest can be a bad thing for relievers.
The Jays come away with the win given the starting matchup, but the Indians should score a few late to make it close.
MLB Odds: Blue Jays 6, Indians 5
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