The matchup didn’t favor the Indians in Game 2, but Cleveland came out the victor anyway with the pitching once again silencing a powerful Blue Jay lineup. How long can this continue? We’ll see if the Indians can keep the magic as the series heads north of the border.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Indians have won the last two games, but the run differential is just three runs in this series as the pitching has owned the batters early.
The shift to the Rogers Center could be instrumental in a shift. The last two games between these teams up in Toronto were wins for the Blue Jays with Toronto beating Cleveland 17-1 in the finale of a four game set on July 3.
This Game 3 is an in-effect must-win game. The 2004 Red Sox are the only team to come back from a three game series deficit and the Indians are more vulnerable on the road than at home, they ended the regular season just two games over .500 away from Progressive Field.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
With this game a near must win for the Jays, they turn to the last starter to take the ball in a must-win game: Marcus Stroman. The 25-year old right-hander threw six innings, allowing two runs in the Wild Card matchup with the Orioles.
He didn’t factor into the decision as the game went into extra innings, but he gave Toronto as much as they could’ve asked for and more.
Stroman gave the Jays some good performances in their postseason games last year, too, but ultimately came up short in the ALCS against the Royals. Toronto will hope history doesn’t repeat itself in that regard.
While Stroman did throw well in his last start, that’s been nearly a two-week gap in starts which could undoubtedly have a major impact on command. It could also leave Stroman too strong, causing his breaking pitches to flatten out.
All in all, the righty has the stuff to get the Jays back on track, but he’s also been a bit spotty over his young career. He was lights in a handful of starts last year, but ended 2016 with a 9-10 record and 4.37 ERA, not exactly elite level numbers.
Of course, the Indians’ Game 3 starter doesn’t have elite numbers, either. In the regular season, Trevor Bauer was 12-8 with a 4.26 ERA and 1.311 WHIP. He’s prone to walks and can be hit around. He led the AL in walks last year and only reigned it in marginally in 2016.
Bauer made two appearances against Toronto this year: one in the last five innings of a 19-inning affair and the other in a start in August. The Indians won both of those games with Bauer allowing just two runs and seven hits in 13 innings. He did walk five batters, but struck out 16.
Things look good for the Indians with this pitching matchup, but Bauer was supposed to start in Game 2, but was pushed back due to a cut on his pinky finger suffered while repairing a drone. The cut required 11 stitches and while he’s expected to start, he could be scratched again. Even if he does pitch will the injury impact how he’s able to grasp the ball or his command?
LIVE BETTING
One. That’s all the runs the vaunted Jays offense could muster in the first two games of their series against the Indians.
Toronto did have to deal with winds and shadows that made for a tough day at the plate for both teams, but Cleveland did a better job scratching out runs than the Jays. The Blue Jays will now look for the change of venue to have a major impact.
The Rogers Center is a homer friendly park and the roof will be closed to eliminate the issues of shadows and winds. Still, the Jays will need to find the answer for Andrew Miller and Chad Allen in the end of the game. The two combined for three innings and seven strikeouts after striking out six in 2.2 innings Friday.
Offense isn’t only a Blue Jay issue. The Indians haven’t gotten much from players not named Francisco Lindor. The shortstop drove in both runs in Game 1 with a homer and collected two of the team’s four hits in Game 2, driving in one more run. Carlos Santana was responsible for the other run thanks to a homer.
QUICK PICK
If the runs will come in this series, they’ll come in Game 3. You have a pitcher making his first start in nearly two weeks and another fresh off getting 11-stitches in his hand.
To boot, you have two teams highly regarded offensively shifting a series to a dome stadium that won’t cause too many external impairments for the batters, like the sun and wind in the first two games.
That all said, we’ve still not seen the Jays be able to tough Miller and Allen, let alone score against them, so if Toronto is to score, they’ll need to get the job done early. The off day on Sunday buys the duo an off day. You can count on them pitching in Game 3 if the game is tied or the Tribe has the lead.
Even with those last couple innings locked down, the Jays will have a chance against Bauer and they shouldn’t have a problem scoring against them. He’ll give a few free passes and they’ll exploit that as well.
Look for Toronto to score enough to fend off the Indians, at least for one game, as Stroman does enough and the Jays’ pen holds up to get the win.
MLB Odds: Blue Jays 6, Indians 5
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