This could be it for the Blue Jays. Toronto is one loss from elimination while the Indians have remained undefeated in the postseason and need just a single win to advance to their first World Series since 1997. They’ll have their ace on the mound to start, a tired—yet talented—bullpen behind him and a scrappy offense that’s over performed all season long.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Blue Jays had the perfect opportunity on Monday with Trevor Bauer leaving the game in the first inning, but the Cleveland bullpen came through and the Indians extended their series lead to three games.
Cleveland’s pitching has handled the Jays’ offense with relative ease, but there’s concern about the bullpen’s fatigue. We have a short turnaround and Terry Francona was forced to use x pitchers, giving the Tribe a bit of a handicap, particularly with such a short turnaround leading into the afternoon game.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
With a chance to close out the series and sweep Toronto, the Indians will turn back to their ace after he pitched very well in Game 1.
Corey Kluber pitched into the seventh in the series opener, keeping the Jays off the board and putting Cleveland in position to win with Andrew Miller and Cody Allen closing things out.
Given the extensive bullpen usage in Game 3, the Indians will look for depth from Kluber who is pitching on three days’ rest, something he’s not accustom to doing. There’s plenty of uncharted territory here for the Indians.
Nevertheless, the Indians still have a Cy Young contender on the hill that was 18-9 in the regular season with a 3.14 ERA. Kluber knows how to pitch and lead the AL in ERA+ and FIP. He’s dependable and even on short rest can be counted on to give the Tribe a good start.
Toronto has the deeper—and healthier—rotation so they’ll go to a fresher arm in 24-year old right-hander Aaron Sanchez.
Like Kluber, Sanchez has an argument for the Cy Young, too, leading the AL with a 3.00 ERA and a .882 winning percentage, going 15-2. He keeps the ball in the ballpark and though he does walk more than he’d like, is difficult to square up when he’s on his game.
He wasn’t on his game in the ALDS. The Rangers tagged him for six runs in 5.2 innings of work. He only gave up three hits in that game, but he walked four and uncharacteristically gave up a pair of home runs.
Sanchez last faced the Indians on August 20 and went just four innings in that game, allowing five runs—four earned—on four hits. He gave up a home run in that game to Lonnie Chisenhall who will be in the lineup on Tuesday.
In conclusion, you have two top quality pitchers squaring off, one coming off a strong postseason start and the other coming off a poor outing. Kluber is also more accustom to pitching late into a season. Sanchez is in uncharted territory in terms of total innings though he has had more of a break, but that ultimately could be a bad thing for command. It was a struggle having the extra time in the ALDS.
LIVE BETTING
The Blue Jays need the offense to come around to have a chance. They’ve won each of their last 20 postseason games—dating back to the 1990s—where they’ve scored at least five runs. When scoring four or less, they’ve now lost 13 in a row.
Cleveland’s pitching has owned the Blue Jays. Toronto’s scored just three runs in three games and haven’t been able to mount much of a threat no matter who is on the hill for the Tribe.
The Indians’ bullpen has been tough from Chad Allen and Andrew Miller to Jeff Manship and Bryan Shaw.
Miller and Allen in particular continue to rake up scoreless frames every games and tons of strikeouts.
On to the offense of the Jays, Jose Bautista continues his struggles. He, along with Edwin Encarnacion, Troy Tulowitzki and Russell Martin have all been practically non-existent in this series.
Cleveland’s bats haven’t been that much better aside form Francisco Lindor and Chisenhall though Mike Napoli delivered on Monday with a bomb. The Indians also got RBI hits from Jason Kipnis and Jose Ramirez in Game 3 as they’re cold bats may be heating up.
QUICK PICK
There’s only been one team down three games to none in a series to come back and win that series. It would be foolish to think the Jays could mirror that 2004 Red Sox team of destiny. This series is essentially over, but can Toronto at least force a Game 5?
It seems unlikely even with Kluber on short rest. He’s pitched well in this postseason, having not allowed a run in 13.1 innings. The veteran has thrown the ball better and more regularly than Sanchez of late.
The Indians have also been swinging the bats better than Toronto as the Jays have seen the offense go cold this series after hitting well against Texas.
The momentum for the Jays is gone. This series belongs to the Indians and with an ace on the mound and a good pen behind him, there’s nothing we’ve seen this series to suggest much different than what we’ve seen in the first three games.
MLB Odds: Indians 5, Blue Jays 3
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