One more win for the Blue Jays and we may just have ourselves a series after all with the best of seven shifting back to Cleveland. The Tribe had rolled through the first three games, not trailing a single inning. That changed in Game 4, Toronto came out with a sense of urgency and that, combined with excellent pitching helped them to steal their first game of the series.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
One win is a start. We finally saw the Blue Jays take control of a game. Prior to Tuesday, everything was going according to the script Cleveland wanted to follow for the game: grab a lead and lean on the bullpen to close it out.
It’ll be interesting to see how the Indians bounce back. They’re still sitting pretty in this series so the pressure won’t be on Cleveland too much yet, but this is still their first loss of this postseason and that can sometimes be a bit of a rally killer; just ask the 2014 Royals about that after they were handed their first loss of the postseason in the World Series.
The Indians were dead and buried in this series. Now, they’ve got a bit of life, but it still rides with Toronto in a win-or-go-home game. This time they at least have a nice pitching matchup.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Having pitched Game 1, Corey Kluber would’ve been aligned to make this start on regular rest, but Terry Francona opted to give him the ball on short rest in Game 4; a plan that backfired as the Jays were able to get the win.
Now, the Tribe will have to rely on rookie southpaw Ryan Merritt in what they hope to be the final game of this ALCS.
Pardon the pun, but the 24-year old left-hander certainly merits the start based on his very small major league sample size. He pitched just four game for the Indians—with just one start—but he looked very good, allowing two runs in 11 innings of work.
It’s quite a leap to use minor league numbers to predict Major League success and it’s even more of one to try and predict postseason success, but Merritt did look good in Triple-A Columbus, going 11-8 with a 3.70 ERA in 24 starts. His 1.4 walk rate per nine innings is probably the highlight as he’s one to stay in the strike zone and not permit the extra base runners. Of course, he only struck out 5.8 per nine and that’s a dangerously low number, particularly when he’s about to go up against a lineup as potent as Toronto’s.
For Toronto, they’ll flip back to their Game 1 starter, Marco Estrada, for his second start of the series and third in this postseason.
The former Brewer hurler came into his own north of the border last year and had another strong season. Despite mediocre stuff and a fastball typically under 90 mph, the veteran right-hander has found success thanks to his command and the movement on his pitches.
As good as Estrada was in the regular season, he’s been even better since. In his two postseason starts, the 32-year old has gone at least eight innings in both. He held the Rangers to one run and four hits in 8.1 innings in Game 1 of the ALDS and then delivered eight innings of two-run ball against the Indians in the series opener. He was just out pitched by Kluber in that game. His counterpart this time around is far less likely to pitch such a gem.
LIVE BETTING
The idea of a rookie with just 11 big league innings on the mound against the Jays’ Game 1 starter in each of its series to date should play as a mismatch, but then again, things looks to be leaning heavily in Toronto’s favor with Trevor Bauer exited Game 3 in the first with a bloody hand.
The game, however, didn’t go according to plan and the Jays struggled against the parade of Cleveland relievers. It didn’t seem to hurt the Tribe in Game 3, but that did play a role in Game 4 as Bryan Shaw gave up a run following an inning and two-thirds the day before.
On the reverse of that, in the Game 4 loss, the Indians didn’t have to go to their secret sauce of Andrew Miller and Cody Allen. The duo have combined to pitch 15.2 innings of scoreless baseball while striking out 30 batters.
Those two should be rested and ready so it’ll be up to Toronto again to get an early lead, disrupting Francona’s prescribed game plan that’s been available every game of this series prior to Tuesday night’s showdown.
QUICK PICK
We know the game is over if the Indians can get to the seventh—and maybe even into the sixth—with the lead, but the Indians successfully chip away at a deficit and capture a win?
Cleveland does have a good lineup, though some members of that lineup are slumping at a bad time. We could see a comeback win to clinch the series, but I don’t see that happening in Game 5.
Look for the Jays to make this a series. They’ve got the pitching advantage through the first six innings and that could help them keep Miller and Allen out of the game. Merritt has shown he can handle himself in his brief big league stint, but his low strikeout totals have me concerned against such a powerful lineup. He’s also had a layoff from pitching which could make someone that’s not a strikeout pitcher too strong, helping with velocity, but limiting the break he’s able to get on the breaking ball.
Look for Estrada to out pitch Merritt and don’t count on the tired Tribe bullpen to be able to bridge the gap to the back end well enough to make up for the difference. And with the Indians offense going cold, it’s hard to count on them to pick up the slack.
MLB Odds: Blue Jays 6, Indians 3
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