The Indians took Game 1 at home, but Boston is still in position to split in Cleveland and take over the home field edge in the series, but it’s up to the Indians to stop them and keep the good times rolling at Progressive Field. They’ve got the right pitcher on the mound to do it, too.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
Boston beat the Indians in four of six meetings in the regular season, but those trends proved useless on Thursday as the Indians topped Boston in a narrow 5-4 showdown.
Bauer gave the Indian just enough in the opener and Terry Francona showed he was in it to win it, giving Bauer a quick hook as he went to his relief ace Andrew Miller in the fifth. Leaning on the pen that heavily in Game 1 could impact Game 2, but it’s unlikely—with an off day on Saturday—anyone would be off limits for Friday.
As for other trends, Cleveland is a 53-28 team at home, but just barely over .500 on the road. They also have a .571 winning percentage in one run games, Boston’s under .500 in one-run games at 20-24 and instead tend to get their wins in blow out fashion.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Typically we see our best pitching matchup in Game 1, but Game 2 brings us a pair of former Cy Young Award winners with Corey Kluber against David Price.
Kluber is the primary remaining piece in a vaunted rotation and even he is coming off an injury that cost him the end of the regular season. He was pushed back to make the start in Game 2 as a result and is making his first start since September 26 against Detroit when he left the game after only four innings.
The 30-year old right-hander will have to overcome rust, but he can hang his hat on a good performance in his previous start against Boston this year, holding them to two runs in seven innings.
Over the course of the year, Kluber’s been good from beginning to end and actually grew stronger near the end. He ended the season 18-9 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.056 WHIP in 215 innings. He also boasts the lowest ERA+ and FIP in the league as well. He’s a pitcher that features electric stuff, but also boasts good command and the ability to keep the ball in the park, allowing less than one home run per nine innings.
Like most pitchers, Kluber benefits from pitching at home, but he has struggled with the Sox in his career, going 2-3 in nine games with a 4.78 ERA.
Meanwhile, Price enters the postseason coming off easily his worst season since 2009. He did go 17-9 thanks in large part to a dynamic offense and an ability to go deep in the game despite some struggles.
While the wins are there, his ERA is inflated for his standards at 3.99. He also led the team in hits allowed in route to a 1.204 WHIP. Most pitchers would love that number, but it is his highest WHIP since 2009 and second highest of his career.
After it looked like Price was getting back to form in the second half, he had a couple clunkers in September, allowing 11 runs in two games to the Yankees.
The numbers aren’t up to form, but Price is still a menacing presence able to shut down the opposition any given night. He’s 10-2 against Cleveland lifetime with a 2.24 ERA.
His career success aside, there is one additional wrinkle: Price’s postseason resume isn’t quite as good. He’s 2-7 with a 5.12 ERA over 14 games after struggling in Toronto last year.
LIVE BETTING
Price on the mound undoubtedly means a start for Brandon Guyer, the southpaw hitting extraordinaire.
Cleveland hasn’t had too many issues with lefties as a team, scoring the fourth most runs against in all of baseball in the regular season, second most in the AL.
The Indians’ bats also showed up early in Game 1 led by three home runs in the third inning off the bats of Roberto Perez, Jason Kipnis and Francisco Lindor. Perez’s blast was the biggest surprise. Catcher has been the team’s weakest offensive position.
Both of these teams have dynamic offenses, but pitching is always king. Either of these starters could make the other team’s offense look silly, but there are questions so keep a close eye on Kluber and Price early. If either, or both, show their good stuff alongside very good command, don’t be surprised if this is a low scoring game despite the thunderous potential in each lineup.
QUICK PICK
Both Kluber and Price have their questions and with both bullpens strong and deep, this game really does come down to these two starters.
As hard as it is to give the advantage to a team that doesn’t have David Price, Kluber—even with some rust—gets the nod. Price’s postseason numbers last year are worrisome, particularly when coupled with his 2016. Kluber has pitched better all season long.
Look for Kluber to edge out Price and the Indians to do the same to the Sox. This is a near must win for each team. If the Sox go back to Boston tied, the series advantage goes their way, if Cleveland sweeps at home, they need just one win in three chances to take the series. Those aren’t bad odds for anybody.
MLB Odds: Indians 4, Red Sox 2
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