After a disappointing showing in the first two games of this series at home, the Rangers are in position for a bit of payback to a Jays team that came back from two games back to beat Texas last postseason. It’s quite a task, however, given their best two starters aren’t available after struggling in the first two games against a Toronto lineup that’s clicking.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Blue Jays have now won five straight division series games against the Rangers and have taken care of business offensively against their toughest starters, backing the team with the AL’s best record into a corner.
The Rangers 95-67 record was built largely on smoke and mirrors. Run differential is typically a successful measure of a team, but the Rangers have been a team that’s been blown out more than a contender typically should, but has managed to win a ton of close games. So far this series, we’ve seen the blowout loss, but we’ve also now seen the close game loss.
The Jays are now at home where they’ve posted a .568 winning percentage, where they drew more fans than any other AL team and where the last time they were there they got an extra inning walk off victory to advance to this series.
Whether you believe in home/road splits, momentum, luck or even curses, all signs point to Toronto.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
The Jays are up by two games and one could make the argument their best starter is slated to go on Sunday.
Aaron Sanchez well get the ball in their first home game of the series. The 23-year old right-hander got his first chance as a starter from start to finish and he came through, going 15-2 with a 3.00 ERA in 192 innings over 30 starts.
His winning percentage and ERA both lead the American League. He’s also got the lowest home run rate, allowing just 15 bombs in those 192 innings.
The All-Star and Cy Young contender forced Toronto to keep him in the rotation all year despite a plan to move him to the pen. That does bring into question his durability and whether or not he’s fatigued. His last three starts wouldn’t suggest that. He’s allowed three runs in 19 innings in those three games.
As for the opponent, Sanchez has faced Texas twice, both earlier in the year and both with very different results. The first game resulted in a Jays win after the youngster tossed seven innings of three-run ball. The second was a no-decision for Sanchez, but loss for Toronto when he gave up six runs in 6.2 innings.
The head-to-head results for Sanchez leaves the door open for Texas to get back into this series, but their supposed advantage—their dueling aces—disappointed and the Rangers will instead have to turn to someone else to get them back in the win column.
That someone else is either Colby Lewis or Martin Perez. When healthy, Lewis has put together a fine season, but he’s a starter that relies on contact and, prior to his 3.71 ERA this year, put up a 5.18 and 4.66 ERA in the previous two years. He’s also 3-6 lifetime against the Jays with a 6.17 ERA and 1.477 WHIP in 65.2 innings.
The 25-year old Martin Perez is basically the opposite of Lewis, exception the young southpaw is also far from a strikeout pitcher with just 4.7 strikeouts per nine innings.
He’s 10-11 with a 4.39 ERA this year and 1.414 WHIP in 198.2 innings. He’s been a reliable innings eater, but little else. It did look like he turned a corner in mid-September, but then allowed eight runs to the Brewers in his second to last start and lasted just three innings against Tampa Bay in his regular season finale.
LIVE BETTING
Roberto Osuna is back and once again pitching well when it matters. That tightens up the bullpen which had struggled prior to the end of the regular season. Those concerns have been put to rest in the team’s first three postseason games. Sure, Francisco Liriano gave up a couple runs and Brett Cecil walked his lone batter, but all in all the pen’s held up.
In addition, the Jays bats’—particularly the power bats—have come to life. There is power top to bottom in this order and we saw that on Friday when Ezequiel Carrera went yard.
On the other side, Carlos Gomez and Ian Desmond went 5-for-10 atop the lineup, but Carlos Beltran, Adrian Beltre, Rougned Odor and Jonathan Lucroy, batting third through sixth, went 3-for-18 stranding 15 base runners.
The Jays pitchers have quieted the heart of the Texas order so far this series. Watch how they handle Sanchez the first time through the order on Sunday. It’s this group that’ll need to provide an early spark to recapture momentum for this series to not end in three games.
QUICK PICK
The Rangers thrived in the regular season on late game come backs and heroics, but we’ve seen none of that in the first two games with the Toronto bullpen slamming the door.
Texas can no longer wait for a big moment late. They need to recapture the momentum, but the pitching matchup is against them, home field is against them and the recent history between these two teams in the playoffs is against them, too.
Look for the Jays to close out the series at home in Game 3 behind a strong start from Sanchez and a couple quality innings out of the pen.
MLB Odds: Blue Jays 7, Rangers 4
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