ODDS ANALYSIS
We don’t always associate the Angels with great pitching, but the staff has kept the Halos within striking distance of the Astros in the NL West. The Angels got another solid starting effort Wednesday in a 4-3 win at Toronto, their fourth win in six games on a 10-game road trip putting them up 2.45 units on the moneyline. LA has also won seven of nine following Wednesday’s victory, up 5.45 units in that span, while cashing the under eight times. The Halos are a good bet on the under going 13-3 in their last 16 and 22-16-1 for the season while cashing the under in each of Garrett Richards’ last two starts.
The Sox keep waiting for the offense to break out after being silenced by Texas’ Phil Klein on Wednesday in a 2-1 loss. With that effort the Sox are averaging two runs while splitting their last eight games. They’re in the black 0.85 units on the moneyline over the last eight but for the season the Sox are in the red 4.87 units and 6.32 units on the runline. The Sox played below the total for a seventh straight game Wednesday and the under is 21-18-1 for the year and 11-7 in Boston’s 18 home games.
PITCHING MATCHUP
LA’s Garrett Richards (3-2, 2.29 ERA) suffered a tough-luck loss Sunday, yielding two runs on five hits with seven strikeouts over 7.2 innings. He’s allowed just seven runs in 34.1 innings in his last five starts, but he’s been a little erratic surrendering 3.9 walks per nine innings this season.
Richards has struggled against the Red Sox during the career boasting a 5.40 ERA and 1.80 WHIP with four homers allowed in 23.2 innings over six appearances. In three games at Fenway Park he’s allowed 13 hits and seven runs in four innings for a 15.75 ERA.
Boston’s Rick Porcello (4-2, 4.26 ERA) has established himself as the stopper in the rotation after holding the Mariners to two runs on five hits over 6.2 innings Saturday in a 4-2 win. He’s 3-0 with a 2.10 ERA and 4.2 strikeout-walk ratio over his last four starts.
Porcello has had difficulties with the Angels in his career with a 6.52 ERA and 1.53 WHIP giving up 78 hits and five homers in 59.1 innings in 11 starts.
QUOTE TO NOTE
“It’s something I would love to cut down on, obviously, but we’re all human and that’s going to happen from time to time. I’ve got to do my best to keep the ball in front of the plate, but still attack with the same aggressiveness. I’m not going to get timid out there.” – Angels pitcher Garrett Richards on his high number of wild pitches
LIVE BETTING or SITUATIONAL BETTING
Baseball is a game of numbers and by looking at and analyzing them we could surmise the Red Sox will light up Los Angeles starter Garrett Richards. But there’s much more that factor into it. Richards has a lifetime 15.75 ERA and 3.50 WHIP giving up 13 hits and seven runs in four innings in three appearances at Fenway Park and he came away with more than just a bad line in his last outing there. Making his first career start at the fabled ballpark last August 20, Richards damaged his left knee while covering first base, leaving the game with a season-ending injury. He lasted just 1.2 innings giving up five hits and two runs. Richards is a much better pitcher than his career numbers at Fenway indicate and the Red Sox are struggling to score, it’s the perfect storm for the Angels. Watch for Richards to shutdown the Sox in his return to the venue that stole his marvelous 2014 season.
PROP TALK
Few players possess the skills of LA’s Mike Trout and that’s why he’s widely considered the best player in baseball. Even when he’s slumping it’s fun to watch him on the field. The kid plays all out on every play and at-bat and that takes its toll, but there’s just a sense that he’s going to do something exciting every time he steps into the box. Trout lifted his average to .288 with a pair of hits Wednesday, including his 11th home run of the year, ending a three-game stretch where he had just one hit in 13 ABs. Trout is a .333 lifetime hitter against Rick Porcello with a homer and six driven in and, like he usually does, he’ll spark the Angels offense with a few hits.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Angels have a tough enough time scoring runs and they may be without Albert Pujols after he took a pitch on his wrist Wednesday at Toronto. He’s hitting just .232 on the year with seven home runs, but his loss would remove a big stick from the middle of a lineup that averages fewer than four runs a game. The Angels climbed above .500 with solid pitching and their ace Garrett Richards, who sustained a season ending knee injury in Boston last August, gets the call against a Red Sox squad that’s also reeling.
A promising start to the season is such a distant memory for the Red Sox as they continue to try and find the magic that had them at 6-2 after the first week. Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz, Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez are all slumping at the same time and the Sox offense has disappeared. They will eventually snap out of it and return to some sense of normalcy, but can they cover for a pitching staff that has struggled even more? Rick Porcello has pitched like an ace over his last four starts and still has an elevated ERA of 4.26.
Los Angeles 5, Boston 2
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