ODDS ANALYSIS
At this time last year the Athletics were in first place in the AL West a full 12 games in front of the last place Astros. What a difference a year makes. Oakland enters the series losers in 10 of its last 11 game and is the least profitable team on the moneyline in baseball. Over a just completed six-game homestand, when the A’s won just once, they were down 5.73 units and are in the red 18.11 units for the season. With a win Monday the A’s have taken three of the first four games played this season in Houston with the under cashing in the last three. But the A’s have been a strong play on the over going 27-11-2 in their first 40 games.
The Astros haven’t allowed youth to prevent them from racing to the top of the AL. Houston became the first team to 25 wins defeating Toronto on Sunday for its fifth straight victory. The surprising start has the Astros as the most profitable team in MLB in the black 12.06 units. Playing as the favorite is common for the Astros with their early-season success and they went 5-1 over the first six of this nine-game homestand up 3.4 units as the favorite in all six. The Astros played the over in three of the last four and the over is 4-1 in Dallas Kuechel’s last five starts but overall the under is 19-18-1.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Oakland’s Jesse Hahn (1-3, 4.42 ERA) settled for the no-decision after allowing four runs – two earned – on five hits and two walks with five strikeouts in 6.1 innings against the White Sox on Friday. It was the second time in seven starts he pitched past the sixth inning and he’s allowed 15 earned runs in 21.2 innings over his last four starts.
Hahn will be making his first ever appearance and start against the Astros when he takes the hill on Wednesday.
Dallas Kuechel (5-0, 1.87 ERA) won his seventh consecutive decision Friday to run his record to 5-0 in an atypical performance. He worked around traffic on the bases allowing eight hits, three walks and four earned runs beating Toronto. After allowing four earned runs combined in his first six starts, he’s matched that total in each of his last two.
Kuechel allowed just two hits in nine shutout innings at Oakland on Apr. 24 getting a no-decision in an extra-inning win. He’s 1-2 with a 3.19 ERA in 10 career appearances and eight starts versus the Athletics.
QUOTE TO NOTE
“His first six starts he dominated. It’s hard to keep that pace up. I think it speaks more about the domination that he had at the beginning of the season and less about the struggles or anything like that.” – Astros manager AJ Hinch on pitcher Dallas Keuchel
LIVE BETTING or SITUATIONAL BETTING
Oakland’s defense has been a concern as we reach the one-quarter mark in the season. The A’s have committed a major league-high 43 errors, including 22 in a 15-game run with at least one in every game, their longest such streak since a 17-game stretch in 1982. And the errors have been costly, too, leading to the most unearned runs allowed in the majors. Shortstop Marcus Semien committed his major league-worst 15th error Monday though it didn’t factor in the scoring. A pitching staff can negate errors with a strikeout and the Astros lead the AL in that category, fanning a league-high 356 times through Monday.
PROP TALK
Astros second baseman Jose Altuve hit when the team was losing over 100 games in three consecutive seasons and he continues to hit with the team leading the AL West. Altuve is a big reason why the Astros are leading the division, he’s hitting .323 entering play Monday and his five home runs are just two shy of his season career-high. Unlike many of his teammates, he’s been immune to the strikeout helping his OBP to a team-best .376 OBP and when he reaches first base he can easily get into scoring position by stealing a bag. Altuve is batting a robust .444 against the Athletics entering this series five multi-hit games in the first six against Oakland pitching and will continue his torrid pace with a few hits and runs on Wednesday.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Oakland’s moneyball strategy ran into an inflationary period this year as they continue to struggle with the worst record in baseball. The A’s are scoring runs at a good pace led by Stephen Vogt and Josh Reddick, but pitching has been a concern, especially the bullpen, and defensively the Athletics have committed the most errors in baseball, sabotaging the staff with an unusually high number of unearned runs. Starter Jesse Hahn has been ineffective over his last four starts and shows no signs of improving on his recent numbers.
The Astros possess the AL’s best record and are too young to realize they are still a year away from contending. Houston has pieced together three winning streaks of four games or more and has not lost more than three consecutive games all season. The long ball has been a major part of the club’s identity as they lead baseball in home runs but the strikeouts still plague them. Dallas Kuechel leads an impressive starting rotation and the bullpen has been strong. But there are still questions about the backend without an established closer and that could be concerning as the season progresses. For right now, however, it isn’t and the Astros get another win.
Houston 5, Oakland 1
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