
ODDS ANALYSIS
The Athletics are hopeful their improved play can get them back into contention in the AL West. Playing the Yankees could help speed up their climb. Oakland won for the fourth time in five games against the Yankees this season with Tuesday’s 4-3 win, their fifth victory in the last eight games. The A’s are doing it on the road too, winning their sixth straight away from O.co Coliseum, improving to 21-21 on the road.
The Yankees have the second-best run producing team in the majors but averaged just 2.5 per game in their last eight while going 3-5 with the under at 6-1-1 in that span. Despite that recent under stretch, the Yankees are a strong play on the over at home, going 22-13-4 at Yankee Stadium. Masahiro Tanaka has allowed at least three runs in each of his last three starts and the over is 3-0 in those games with two taking place in Yankee Stadium.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Jesse Chavez (4-8, 3.20 ERA) surrendered nine hits, including two home runs, and four earned over 6.1 innings in a loss to Seattle on Friday. The lefty has struggled lately, yielding 12 runs in his last three starts, giving up at least six hits in all three while surrendering three home runs. He was tagged with a loss in his last two starts and his ERA rose from 2.11 to 3.20 in June.
Chavez was brilliant against the Yankees on May 31, tossing eight shutout innings with six strikeouts in a 3-0 win. He’s unbeaten in four decisions lifetime with New York, posting a 1.63 ERA with 23 strikeouts over 27.2 innings in five games (three starts).
Masahiro Tanaka (4-3, 3.94 ERA) has allowed 14 earned runs and hasn’t lasted past the sixth inning in his last three starts, although he says he feels fine. He posted a quality start in his last outing, holding the Rays to three runs over six innings taking a no-decision in a 7-5 Yankees win.
Clearly Tanaka is not the same dominant pitcher he was in 2014 as he struggles with consistency following his return from the disabled list. Five of his 12 walks and six of his 10 home runs have been surrendered in his last three turns.
QUOTE TO NOTE
“It’s the close games that we’ve had trouble with, so it was good to get this one under our belt. But we have to sustain it. One of these isn’t going to make us who we were. We have to sustain this and win games like this.” – A’s manager Bob Melvin after his team improved to 7-21 in one-run games with Tuesday’s 4-3 win.
LIVE BETTING or SITUATIONAL BETTING
The Yankees have treaded water since losing Jacoby Ellsbury to the disabled list nearly two months ago, going 22-21 while holding on to a slim lead in the AL East. After dropping nine of 15 games and scoring three runs or fewer in seven of eight, the Yankees will welcome Ellsbury, whose .324 average and 29 runs led the team before his injury, back to the lineup. But there’s more reason for optimism in the Bronx as closer Andrew Miller is also back on the roster following a stint on the DL. Miller converted all 17 of his save chances with a 1.03 ERA but hasn’t pitched since June 9 because of a forearm strain. Manager Joe Girardi will move Miller back into his role with Dellin Betances, who saved seven games during Miller’s absence, going back to his eighth inning setup spot.
PROP TALK
Yankees starter Masahiro Tanaka has been far from the dominant hurler we saw in 2014 and even before his stay on the disabled list this season. He’s been hit hard in his last three outings, has struggled at home with a 5.33 ERA and .280 opponents batting average and lefties hit .261 off him this season. That’s all good news for Oakland’s trio of left-handed hitters – Stephen Vogt, Josh Reddick and Ben Zobrist – who are the key players in the middle of the lineup. Vogt and Reddick are the A’s top home run hitters and run producers and will likely be in the middle of any rally.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Yankees starter Masahiro Tanaka says he feels fine. His numbers over his last three starts prove otherwise. If he is good physically, Tanaka needs to pitch much better for the Yankees to survive in the tight AL East. He recorded the minimums to get a quality start in his last outing and said afterwards it was a step in the right direction. A slip up in one start is acceptable, but a 7.88 ERA over his last three starts is concerning.
Oakland 6, New York 3
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