The Boston Red Sox (27-37, -$1662) are desperate to get their season turned around and will get another chance against the Atlanta Braves (30-33, $125). The second game of a four game split home-away series is slated for Tuesday.
ODDS ANALYSIS
The Red Sox are in the midst of a serious skid that has resulted in back-to-back sweeps in their division, against a pair of surging teams in the Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays.
In their last six games, they did manage 10 runs in a game and scored at least four in each of their last four. Despite the offense beginning to turn things around, the pitching is still letting the team down.
On the other side, the Braves have hit a bit of a wall as well, dropping three of their last four and five of their last eight.
Wrapping up their series against the Mets on Sunday, Atlanta dropped the game 10-8.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Atlanta will have their ace on the mound on Tuesday, though Julio Teheran hasn’t exactly pitched like an ace so far this season.
Through 13 starts, the 24-year old right-hander is 4-2 with a 4.78 ERA and inflated 1.407 WHIP. The youngster has not had the command he enjoyed a season ago, allowing 3.5 walks per nine innings and getting hit around a lot harder to the tune of 13 home runs and 9.2 hits per nine innings.
While many of the numbers don’t look good for the Braves, Teheran may be turning the corner. He did allow four runs in his last game, but he was a victim of inherited runners scoring as manager Fredi Gonzalez left him in to start the eighth inning.
To counter Teheran, the BoSox will send their own talented, though struggling pitcher to the hill in Wade Miley.
Miley got into it with manager John Ferrell for taking him out of his last start as the frustration of his poor performances has started to boil over.
The 28-year old southpaw now has an ERA north of five at 5.07 and a WHIP of 1.416. His FIP of 4.21 indicates he may be a bit unlucky, though his defense behind him hasn’t improved and the last outing where he went just four innings and allowed five runs doesn’t encourage confidence.
QUOTE TO NOTE
After his last outing, there were questions about Teheran being left in too long and Gonzalez thought he did not run out of gas, but just got into trouble. He has noted that it has become a trend for Teheran to find trouble later in the game, saying:
“I think that’s the third start in a row, going back to San Francisco, that we can’t get him through an inning there late in the game when we needed to.”
Gonzalez continuing to lean on Teheran to get more innings is more telling of his lack of confidence in his pen—with an ERA of 4.53—than anything else.
LIVE/SITUATIONAL BETTING
The Red Sox’s bats woke up in Baltimore and carried it into its weekend series in Boston against the Blue Jays. The pitching, however, remains a problem.
David Ortiz slammed a home run on Sunday for his ninth of the season and Dustin Pedroia added another multi-hit game after heading into the contest with a team leading .306 average. The scrappy second baseman, however, is one of few players with numbers around what was expected heading into the year.
Meanwhile, guys like Mike Napoli (.200 average), Pablo Sandoval (.687 OPS) and Mookie Betts (.237 average) continue to underwhelm.
For the Braves, the offense has had the opposite impression. With much of the pop gone, few expected much from Atlanta, but the Braves have managed to stay in the middle of the pack in runs scored with 270.
For them, first baseman Freddie Freeman is red hot. In his last 12 games, he has five home runs and is hitting .375. On the year, the team’s offensive leader is hitting .307 with a dozen bombs and 39 RBIs.
To support Freeman, Jace Peterson has picked up his game of late atop the order with a .310 average and .408 OBP in June. Outside of Freeman, there is not a lot of power in the lineup, but they’re scoring runs thanks to Peterson and Cameron Maybin who is turning into a steal with his .796 OPS.
PROP TALK
Maybin’s resurgence in Atlanta can largely be attributed to health. The talented and highly touted outfielder has always had the talent, but has had issues staying on the field.
He has been on the field in Atlanta and has produced well. Look for that to continue on Tuesday as Maybin has found success against Miley in the past, going 6 for 20. Of course, Freeman is also another player to watch. He is only 3 for 12 lifetime against Miley, but among those three hits is a double and home run.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
With the way the Sox are trending it is hard to pick them in any case, particularly with one of their weaker starters on the mound. Look for the Braves’ offense to continue to find a way to put runs on the board.
Teheran is definitely the better of the two starters and while he’s struggled late in games, he’s also shown glimpses of greatness in his last few.
Atlanta 5, Boston 4
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