The St. Louis Cardinals still have the best record in baseball at 60-34, but they’re just 9-9 in the month of July. The Atlanta Braves will look to take advantage of their mediocre month with a win on Saturday, though despite a positive moneyline at $326, Atlanta is just 45-50 overall.
ODDS ANALYSIS
The Cardinals have been the most profitable team in baseball for bettors with a moneyline of $2,098 and even with a 9-9 July are still a good pick. After all, they’re 4-1 in their last five games.
In addition, St. Louis is a staggering 33-12 at home while the Braves are a meager 19-30 on the road. Atlanta has also dropped eight of its last 11 games and went just 2-5 in their last road trip.
In general, the odds and trends point towards the Redbirds.
PITCHING MATCHUP
The best pitching matchup of the weekend series will be on Saturday as former Cardinal Shelby Miller will look to make St. Louis pay for trading him while the Cards’ counter with another young All-Star in Carlos Martinez.
While the talent was always there, Miller has gone from a solid pitcher between 2013 and 2014 to the All-Star arm he’s been so far here in 2015.
The 24-year old right-hander is just 5-6, but has a 2.33 ERA and 1.162 WHIP in his 119 2/3 innings of work. His FIP is a bit higher than his ERA at 3.16, but over his career Miller has routinely outperformed his FIP.
Miller had a small hiccup in his last start of the first half, allowing five runs in five innings to the Rockies, but rebounded in his last start, holding the Cubs to just one earned run over six innings. Over his last eight starts, he’s thrown six quality starts. Still, his 5.16 ERA in his last four road starts is concerning.
Martinez, meanwhile, was a big part of why the Cardinals were willing to part with Miller and became even more important when Adam Wainwright went down.
The 23-year old right-hander stepped into the rotation without skipping a beat. The youngster is 10-4 on the year with a 2.51 ERA and 1.257 WHIP. He’s allowing more base runners than Miller, primarily to an inflated walk rate of 3.8 per nine innings.
This will be Martinez’s first start since the All-Star break after he was forced to throw four innings in 3-1 18-inning loss to the Mets on July 19. He took the loss in that game, but allowed only two runs, one earned. Over his last 11 outings, he hasn’t allowed more than three runs.
QUOTE TO NOTE
The Braves lost Miller’s last start, making it 11 consecutive starts without earning a win for the righty. Despite that, his ability is not lost on his teammates. Second baseman Jace Peterson had this to say after the game:
“I thought Shelby threw great. Every time he goes out there we’ve got a chance to win. I thought he did everything he could have done.”
LIVE/SITUATIONAL BETTING
Offensively, the Braves aren’t one of the powerhouse teams in the sport. Currently, they rank No. 24 in baseball with just 3.83 runs per game and have scored more than three runs only three times in the last 10 games.
Atlanta really misses the bat of Freddie Freeman in the middle of the order. He was the team’s only true power threat while also hitting .299. Now, the team has no active player with more than nine home runs and Cameron Maybin and Juan Uribe now represent the team’s best hitters with Maybin hitting .284 with eight bombs and Uribe posting a .817 OPS.
Guys like Nick Markakis and A.J. Pierzynski offer veteran presences and respectable numbers, but each are flawed.
The Cardinals, of course, don’t possess a powerhouse offense either, instead winning on the quality of their pitching.
Still, St. Louis does have the edge with 4.06 runs per game and better depth. The Cards are also without their first baseman in Matt Adams, but they still have quality players on the field in former Brave Jason Heyward, shortstop Jhonny Peralta, third baseman Matt Carpenter, second baseman Kolten Wong and left fielder Matt Holliday, each with an OPS north of .750.
PROP TALK
This is Miller’s first start against his old team and Martinez’s first career start against the Braves. Now, Martinez has faced Atlanta out of the pen, but few hitters have much history against their opposing pitchers.
That said, keep an eye on Juan Uribe. The veteran third baseman is 2 for 6 in his career against Martinez.
The only Cardinals hitters to have faced Miller are Jason Heyward and Mark Reynolds. They’re a combined 3 for 10 with each hitting a home run.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The starters are neck and neck based on the numbers, but the Cardinals have the edge in every other facet of the game. Even ignoring the Cardinals’ home field advantage and the Braves’ struggles on the road, St. Louis has a better offense and a much better bullpen.
Given the quality of the starters, this game is likely to be close late, but the Cards’ pen is the reason they win this one. Overall, St. Louis has a 2.35 ERA from its pen while the Braves have struggled in the late innings with a 4.20 bullpen ERA.
St. Louis 4, Atlanta 3
The MLB odds for this game will be available first at BookMaker Sportsbook. Gamble on the game between every half inning with BookMaker’s live betting feature. Along with an adjusted in-game moneyline, you can wager on what will happen in the next at-bat or how many runs will be scored in the next inning. Live betting is the most exciting way to play!
Load your betting bankroll from your smartphone with BookMaker’s new cashier feature! Depositing and withdrawing funds from your account has never been easier. BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here and start wagering today! First pitch for the game between the Atlanta Braves and St. Louis Cardinals is scheduled for Saturday, July 25, 2015, at 7:15 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium. The contest will be televised nationally on FS1.
