The Minnesota Twins (43-39, $1,218) will welcome the Baltimore Orioles (43-39, $256) to Target Field for the second of three on Wednesday with both battling it out for a wildcard position while hanging in the race for their respective divisions as well.
ODDS ANALYSIS
The Orioles had been on a tear winning seven of eight and capturing the top spot in the AL East before dropping back-to-back series to the Rangers and White Sox. Their issues, however, have been offense related, but the team put up nine on Sunday.
Baltimore has now dropped five of its last seven games with two of those losses coming on the road. The Birds are lackluster at best on the road with a 15-22 record away from Camden Yards. They’re also better during the day than at night, posting a 24-27 record under the lights.
On the other side, the Twins have had an up-and-down season, but find themselves much better off right now than most anticipated.
The Twins lost a four game series against the Royals this past weekend. Before that, Minnesota dropped back-to-back series against the Reds and the Brewers, both teams struggling to find their way this year.
At home is where the Twinkies feel most comfortable, giving them an edge as they check in a lucrative 25-15 ($1249) at Target Field.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Kevin Gausman may have finally earned himself a spot in the starting rotation after his last outing where he held the Texas Rangers to no-runs on four hits through six and a third innings on July 2.
This start will be only his third of the season, but his eleventh appearance. Gausman started the year in the bullpen and spent time in the minors as well as on the disabled list.
In the majors this year, the 24-year old right-hander is 1-0 with a 3.09 ERA through 23 1/3 innings of work. His WHIP checks in at a solid 1.157.
For his career, Gausman has a 7-10 record and 4.10 ERA as a starter and has allowed five runs in seven and a third innings against the Twins.
On the other side, the Twins will send Kyle Gibson to the hill. The 27-year old right-hander is 6-6 with a 3.04 ERA and 1.242 WHIP in 100 2/3 innings of work. While Gibson’s ERA is impressive, his FIP is a bit elevated at 4.19.
In his last start, he lasted eight innings against the Royals allowing four hits and four walks, but no runs. It was the starter’s fourth straight game allowing three runs or fewer.
QUOTE TO NOTE
Gausman was the Orioles top prospect before graduating out of his prospect status last season. He is also likely the most talented starter the Orioles have, but also the least experienced.
Unfortunately for him, he matched up with Yovani Gallardo who was red hot. Still, his centerfielder Adam Jones appreciated the youngster’s outing, saying:
“Gausman, I had a great view from center field, he was throwing strikes with everything, kept us involved.”
LIVE/SITUATIONAL BETTING
Offensively, the Twins rank in the middle of the pack in runs scored while the Orioles are in were sixth in baseball heading into Sunday with 361 runs, 27 more than Minnesota.
The Birds have a lot more offensive options than the Twins. Minnesota is one of the best at capitalizing on what they have and creating situations, but the O’s have much more pop with 33 more home runs.
The Orioles lead all of baseball with their .308 average with runners in scoring position. They, however, have not had nearly as many chances as the Twins as their OBP is lower, and the Twins are not too shabby plating runs themselves with a .283 average with runners on second and/or third.
Individually, the Birds have Jonathan Schoop back who started the year strong and mashed a home run in his return on Sunday. He adds to a team full of power with Chris Davis (18 HRs), Manny Machado (17 HRs), Adam Jones (10 HRs) and Jimmy Paredes (10 HRs). In addition to the homers, the four aforementioned players each had an OPS over .785 heading into Sunday.
For the Twins, the only players with an OPS+ over 100 are Joe Mauer who is just over the mark as well as Brian Dozier (.839 OPS), Torii Hunter (.769 OPS) and Trevor Plouffe (.759 OPS).
PROP TALK
Neither team has much experience against the opposing pitcher. Despite that, keep an eye on Joe Mauer who has two hits in just three at bats against Gausman, delivering a triple and two RBIs.
Mauer has not had the season he is used to having. He continues a downward slide after a concussion a couple years back. Right now, he is hitting just .272 with little power, but is a career .316 hitter.
He is coming off his best game of the year with four hits in five at bats—including a homer and a double—against the Royals on July 4 and followed it up with two hits on Sunday.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Orioles have the better offense, a talented starter and the superior bullpen with a cumulative ERA of 2.85, compared to the Twins’ 3.84. Baltimore has also committed the fewest number of errors in the American League.
Gibson should keep the Twins in this game, but the Birds have too many other facets going for them to pick against them, despite their road record.
Baltimore 4, Minnesota 3
The MLB lines for this contest will first be released by BookMaker Sportsbook. Gamble on the game between every half inning with BookMaker’s live betting feature. Along with an adjusted in-game moneyline, you can wager on what will happen in the next at-bat or how many runs will be scored in the next inning. Live betting is the most exciting way to play!
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker Sportsbook! You can wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. Real-time spreads, totals, props and moneyline odds are all available by clicking here so start betting with BookMaker today! The ballgame pitting the Baltimore Orioles versus the Minnesota Twins will commence Tuesday, July 7, 2015, at 8:10 p.m. ET at Target Field.
