For years and years, the New York Yankees ( 17-10 SU, +7.15 Units ) were one of the most public teams in the league and were generally horrible for bettors. Now though, they seem to have a lot of value, perhaps even more than the Baltimore Orioles ( 12-12 SU, +0.13 ), the team they will face on Thursday in the Bronx.
ODDS ANALYSIS
Where the Yankees have had some real value this season is on the run-line. They’re 18-9 for run-line bettors in their 27 games, and up 11.17 units on the season for those who’ve bet them religiously.
Baltimore meanwhile, is basically a breakeven team both in terms of SU ( +0.13 Units ) and on the run-line ( -1.26 Units ).
PITCHING MATCHUP
It's been a tough season so far for Chris Tillman, and his stats make no sense whatsoever. This is a man who has historically had very good control with at least a 2.5/1 K/BB ratio. This year though, he is only at 20 strikeouts against 15 walks in five starts, numbers which are awfully concerning at this point in the year.
Tillman did start off May on a high note, as he allowed just three hits and two runs in seven innings against Tampa Bay in a "home game" at Tropicana Field, but he was saddled with his third loss of the season for his efforts.
Nathan Eovaldi might have found himself a new home here in New York. It isn't normal for a pitcher to go from outside of New York into the Big Apple and succeed in doing so, but Eovaldi has gone 2-0 this year with a respectable 3.81 ERA in his first five starts.
Granted, we know that it's early in the season, and a 3.81 ERA isn't lighting the world on fire, but Eovaldi is showing good command. Yes, he’s allowed 38 hits in 28.1 innings, but his BABIP against is .357, the third-highest mark in the league, a number which just can't keep up going forward from here.
QUOTE TO NOTE
"There's nobody playing better all-around baseball as Adam is. I'm biased, but both sides of the ball, a lot of energy. And he's one of the bigger reasons we have won ballgames." – Orioles manager Buck Showalter on Adam Jones
SITUATIONAL BETTING
If Eovaldi can just get through seven innings, this game is as good as over. It's amazing to think that Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller are now a combined 29 innings into the season, and the two have allowed a grand total of zero earned runs. The two have 49 walks between them in that stretch, making them the best setup/closer combination in the bigs.
PROP TALK
A deeper look into Jones' success of late shows us that he is a man worth betting on props with regularity. He's batting .396 and slugging .648. There are 12 extra base hits to his ledger in 24 at bats, and he has five homers with 21 RBI. There isn't much that Jones can't do. Expect him to continue assaulting baseballs on Thursday.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Yankees are in for a fight in this one, though. Advanced stats show that Tillman is due to get a lot better, while Eovaldi is due to get a little bit worse.
That in and of itself is enough for us, especially knowing that we just don't buy into the New York lineup keeping up its hot start to the year. Go with the O's as underdogs on the road in the Bronx.
Baltimore 4, New York 2
The baseball betting odds for this Thursday game will first be available at BookMaker Sportsbook. BookMaker is going to have multiple betting options available for this televised baseball matchup. Live wagering during commercials offers an adjusted moneyline, individual inning run totals and next hitter results. Log in and start gambling during the game now!
Need to fund your account before the big game but don't have your computer? No problem! BookMaker Sportsbook now offers a mobile betting cashier so you can deposit money directly from your smartphone or tablet. Don't miss out on getting paid because you couldn't bet. Click here and deposit at BookMaker now! The duel between the Baltimore Orioles and the New York Yankees will take place Thursday, May 7, 2015 at 7:05 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, NY. Catch the action live on the MLB Network.
