The over is 6-2 in the last eight games played between the New York Yankees (45-39 SU, -1.38 Units) and the Boston Red Sox (41-45 SU, -10.44 Units). If that's any indication, that fact parlayed with the knowledge that neither starting pitcher is likely to go that deep into any given game could create a long day for these bullpens.
PITCHING MATCHUP
You know that Ivan Nova isn't going to be asked to do all that much in this one. He's only got three starts under his belt since coming back from Tommy John surgery he had last season.
So far, Nova has been limited to 92, 85 and 81 pitches in his three starts, and against Boston's very patient lineup, that won't get him that deep into this game in all likelihood.
We really don't count that first start he had against the Phillies as a legitimate one, knowing that that Philly lineup is one of the worst in the majors. Since then though, the common thread against the Angels and Rays has been poor ends of outings. Nova couldn't get through the fifth and sixth of either game, and he allowed at least one run in his final inning each time.
Live bettors need to be aware of when Nova gets up near that 80-pitch mark and know that that's when the damage is likely to be done.
Eduardo Rodriguez is slated to start Saturday for the Bo Sox, and he too is going to have problems with his pitch count.
The rookie is going to be allowed to toss 100 pitches for sure if he needs to, but the fact of the matter is that he has averaged over 16 pitches per inning in each of his last six starts. Live bettors need to know that that isn't going to get him much beyond the fifth or so against this New York lineup.
ADVANCED STATS
Back on May 18, the Red Sox had the lowest BABIP in the game, and it wasn't even close. In fact, their BABIP was 12 points lower than any other team in baseball. Eventually, they had to get luckier.
And luckier they have gotten. In their last 30 days, they have a team BABIP of .316, and they are averaging just a tick under five runs per game in the process.
Unlucky teams don't stay unlucky forever, and the Red Sox still have a ways to go. Their team BABIP is just .290 for the season, which is still just No. 23 in the league, and considering the fact that men like David Ortiz are just starting to finally make some good contact with the ball, that number should only go up, something which live bettors should be very aware of in this game knowing that Nova isn't mowing down lineups with strikeouts at this point in his career.
TALKING BULLPENS
This is where things are going to get really interesting for the Yankees. They have used their bullpen a ton this year, to the tune of 272.2 innings, an average of 3.1 innings per game played.
Yes, many of the members of that pen have done the job, and yes, getting Andrew Miller back from the disabled list should only help.
However, we remain pessimistic. Miller wasn't good in his first outing back from the DL, allowing two runs and just barely hanging on for a save against Oakland, and though Dellin Betances rarely ultimately cost the Yanks a win while he was closing, he was nowhere near as effective then as he was in a setup role.
This New York bullpen, especially pitching in Boston in this game, is no lock in the late innings, and we would be willing to take a flier on the Sox in the right spot against Betances and Miller if the power hitters were lurking.
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