The Boston Red Sox ( 16-18, -$476 ) and Seattle Mariners ( 15-18, -$675 ) play their third game in a four game weekend series on Saturday, each looking to play up to the lofty expectations of the experts and bettors at the beginning of the year.
ODDS ANALYSIS
Last year, Seattle won five of six against the Red Sox. Perhaps playing them this season will be the spark that sets the fire under them and heats them up.
If the Mariners wake up, Robinson Cano heating up will be a big part of that.
For much of the season, Nelson Cruz has been single-handedly carrying the Mariner’s offense. His 1.136 OPS and 15 home runs are amazing, but with just 29 RBIs, he has had few people on base and little support elsewhere in the lineup.
Seth Smith, Logan Morrison and Brad Miller are all producing respectably, but Cano and Kyle Seager were supposed to be the anchors around Cruz and neither have produced to the level the Mariners need them to produce.
In Boston, David Ortiz has not produced consistently, much like Cano and Seager in Seattle.
To make matters worse for the Red Sox, they don’t have a player playing out of his mind like Cruz. Hanley Ramirez ( .849 OPS ) and Dustin Pedroia ( .819 OPS ) are both off to good starts, but that was to be expected.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Neither Boston nor Seattle have gotten what they expected out of their rotation. The Red Sox’s rotation has been particularly bad with a league worst 5.65 ERA.
The Mariners have been bad, too, though the pitching of ace Felix Hernandez has lowered the cumulative ERA closer to league average. When Hernandez is on the mound, all is right with the world, but he can only start once of every fifth day. Unfortunately for the Red Sox, that day is Saturday.
Hernandez is pitching like the ace he is atop the rotation with a 6-0 record, 1.85 ERA and 0.842 WHIP.
He clinched his 2,000th career strike out his last time out and has a 9.2 strikeout per nine innings ratio and only one start where he failed to go at least six and two-thirds innings with two runs or fewer allowed.
As such another game of seven innings and two runs seems likely, even against a lineup full of stars in Boston’s lineup.
On the other side, the Red Sox will need Rick Porcello to pitch like an ace if they have a chance in this one. Porcello is just 3-2 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.318 WHIP this year, but has actually been the team’s best starter.
While unspectacular, he has kept the BoSox in most of his starts and has begun to pitch better here in May with a 2.25 ERA in his first two starts of the month after a 5.34 spot in 32 April innings.
QUOTE TO NOTE
The Mariners lost to the Padres on Wednesday due to their offense. The offense was expected to be one of the team’s strengths, but instead has been a weakness with several players underperforming.
On Wednesday, manager Lloyd McClendon had this to say about his team’s offensive production:
“The positive was we got them out there. The negative was we couldn’t get them in…We just couldn’t get the big hit to put us over the top.”
That has been the story of their season so far, struggling to get the runs in.
LIVE/SITUATIONAL BETTING
Cano’s early season struggles have really slowed the Mariners’ offense, though under the radar, he is starting to heat up. The All-Star second baseman is hitting .302 in May. Interestingly, however, his success hasn’t led to the Mariners success on the year. He is hitting .319 in losses, but only .210 in wins.
PROP TALK
Cano may be heating up, but Cruz will be the one that the Mariners pitch around—if anyone—given the home run threat.
As such, I would look to Robinson Cano or Seth Smith to give you a couple hits if you are looking for a good prop bet. Cano is 9 for 21 against Porcello with a homer while Smith is 6 for 10 with three extra base hits.
If you feel like really rolling the dice and going against Hernandez, both David Ortiz and Dustin Pedroia have seen him well. Ortiz is 13 for 36 and Pedroia is 13 for 43, each with a home run.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Pedroia and Ortiz have hit Hernandez pretty well, but few other Sox players have. I look for Hernandez to keep dominating the opposition as he is in good form right now. On the other side, Porcello should be able to keep the Mariners in the game, but I doubt we see much more than that from him.
Seattle 6, Boston 2
The MLB lines for this contest will first be released by BookMaker Sportsbook. Gamble on the game between every half inning with BookMaker’s live betting feature. Along with an adjusted in-game moneyline, you can wager on what will happen in the next at-bat or how many runs will be scored in the next inning. Live betting is the most exciting way to play!
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker Sportsbook! You can wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. Real-time spreads, totals, props and moneyline odds are all available by clicking here so start betting with BookMaker today! The ballgame pitting the Boston Red Sox versus the Seattle Mariners will commence Saturday, May 16, 2015, at 9:10 p.m. ET at Safeco Field. You can watch the contest live on the MLB Network.
