Just one game out of first place—two in the loss column—the Toronto Blue Jays (41-36, $302) find themselves in fourth place, one spot ahead of the struggling Boston Red Sox (34-43, -$1,614), their opponents in Wednesday’s third game of a four game series.
ODDS ANALYSIS
After losing a series to the Orioles, the Blue Jays have won back-to-back series, going 4-2 in their last six games.
Of course, the Sox have been playing pretty good ball of late as well, winning seven of their last 12 games.
Head-to-head, the edge goes to the team from the Great White North as the Jays are 6-3 against Boston this year, sweeping them the last time these teams met and winning two of three the last time the Sox were in Toronto.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Each team will have a veteran hurler on the mound as the Jays turn to southpaw Mark Buehrle while the Red Sox give Rick Porcello another chance to snap his streak of six straight losing decisions.
In Porcello’s last outing, the 26-year old right-hander pitched six innings, allowing just three runs despite nine hits to record just his second quality start since May 16.
It’s been a tough season for Porcello, just like the rest of the BoSox’ rotation, as he is just 4-8 with a 5.54 ERA and 1.360 WHIP through 15 starts.
Wednesday’s start will actually be his first against the Jays this year, but over his career, he is 3-5 against them with a 4.24 ERA in 51 innings and 1-3 with a 4.95 ERA in 20 innings at the Rogers Center.
While Porcello continues to struggle, Buehrle has been one of the Jay’s better starters.
The veteran southpaw is 8-4 with a 3.81 ERA and 1.238 WHIP in 99 1/3 innings despite a fastball that tops out in the mid-80s.
The 36-year old is a fast worker and thrives by inducing weak contact. He has recorded five straight quality starts and a 2-0 record with a 1.75 ERA and 0.972 WHIP in those five outings.
QUOTE TO NOTE
The Jays edged out Texas 3-2 on Sunday to remain a single game out of the top spot in the AL East. Josh Donaldson delivered a long ball in the game to help Toronto secure the win and spoke after the game, saying he was feeling more comfortable at the plate—which is bad news for pitchers—saying:
“I’ve really felt the last two weeks that my quality of swings haven’t been up to par or how I like, and within the last two or three days, I’ve felt my quality of swing was getting up higher, and I’ve been having some pretty good at bats.”
LIVE/SITUATIONAL BETTING
Toronto has scored 106 more runs this season—in the same number of games—than Boston.
Offensively, these teams were both expected to be powerhouses, but to date, only the Blue Jays have delivered on that expectation.
For the Sox, May was a huge offensive struggle. The team has rebounded a bit in June with 119 runs in just 26 games, but still lags behind the top-ranked Blue Jays.
With Dustin Pedroia out on the 15-day disabled list, the Sox also lose one of their top performers as the scrappy second baseman was hitting .306 with nine home runs this season.
With Pedroia out, Brock Holt likely slides into his position while Alejandro De Aza, who has a .899 OPS since joining the Sox, gets more play in the outfield.
All in all, Boston has a good number of contributors with only the catching position and first base position yielding poor overall numbers with Blake Swihart posting an OPS of .620 and Mike Napoli hitting just .203.
Unlike Boston, Toronto’s lineup doesn’t really have a weak spot. The team has a number of role players and platoon combinations with players like Justin Smoak (.773 OPS) and Danny Valencia (.912 OPS).
The team also has Devon Travis back at second base, relegating the light hitting Ryan Goins back to the bench.
Travis was, arguably, the team’s best hitter in April and still possesses a .816 OPS. Provided he can continue to produce, the lineup just got deeper.
Overall, the team has an MVP candidate in Josh Donaldson (.900 OPS and 18 HRs) and three other players with double digit homers in Edwin Encarnacion (16), Jose Bautista (15) and Russell Martin (11). In addition to the power, the team has gotten great production from Chris Colabello (.337 average).
PROP TALK
Buehrle is undoubtedly happy to see Pedroia out of the lineup as he is hitting .372 against him. Still, the Sox have a number of players with success against the southpaw, including David Ortiz who is 25 for 79 with four home runs and 14 RBIs.
Big Papi, however, has been miserable against lefties this year, hitting just .115 and OPSing .277. Buehrle’s fast ball is anything but fast, but given Papi’s horrible numbers, it may be better to look elsewhere for a guy to bet on. Xander Bogaerts may be the answer as he is 3 for 11 with two doubles and a homer.
On the other side, Joey Bats is 8 for 20 against Porcello and Smoak has the most RBIs, going 3 for 11 with a homer and four RBIs.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
With similar defenses and middle of the pack bullpens, this game is going to be about offense and starting pitching and in this game, it looks like the Jays have the edge in both departments.
Given his inflated ERA, I have no reason to believe Porcello will be able to quiet the Jays’ offense, so look for game to get a bit lopsided as Buehrle has shown throughout his career that he can usually find ways to win.
Toronto 7, Boston 3
The MLB lines for this contest will first be released by BookMaker Sportsbook. Gamble on the game between every half inning with BookMaker’s live betting feature. Along with an adjusted in-game moneyline, you can wager on what will happen in the next at-bat or how many runs will be scored in the next inning. Live betting is the most exciting way to play!
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker Sportsbook! You can wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. Real-time spreads, totals, props and moneyline odds are all available by clicking here so start betting with BookMaker today! The ballgame pitting the Boston Red Sox versus the Toronto Blue Jays will commence Wednesday, July 1, 2015, at 1:07 p.m. ET at Rogers Centre.
