The Boston Red Sox (12-10 SU, +0.35 Units) and the New York Yankees (13-9 SU, +3.60 Units) have both had relatively successful months of April. With the rest of the AL East struggling at the moment, series like these to kick off May could ultimately decide playoff spots in this division.
ODDS ANALYSIS
The Yankees have the third best money mark in the game for road teams this year. They are out of the chute at 7-3 away from the Bronx in 2015, and they are up 4.77 units.
Remember too, that New York has been a fantastic run-line team, particularly when it has been a short favorite. The team is 14-8 against the run-line this year and up 8.59 units for bettors.
PITCHING MATCHUP
There was a point not that long ago that CC Sabathia was one of the most dominating forces on the rubber in the game. Now, we have to wonder if he should be headed for the minors.
Sabathia has a fantastic 22/4 K/BB ratio in his four starts, but he has been a loser in all four affairs and only has one quality start. His 5.96 ERA is ugly thanks to the seven runs he allowed against the Mets in his last start, but regardless, things still aren't looking good for the big man.
Justin Masterson has rebounded nicely from a poor start to the season. He has allowed just 10 hits and four runs in his last two outings, which have covered 12 frames. His career against the Yankees though, is far from sterling. He has a 4-5 record and a 3.94 ERA, but in his last start against them last year, he was run after just two innings when he was with Cleveland.
QUOTE TO NOTE
"We acknowledge the performance of the pitching staff, and we know it needs to improve. We still believe it will simply be by our pitchers pitching to their capability. We don't need them to do more than that. We believe it we pitch to our capability, we will win games. We're focused on helping the guys that are here now pitch to their capability." – Red Sox GM Ben Cherington on the struggles of his starting pitchers this season
SITUATIONAL BETTING
It's good to see Koji Uehara back on point for the Sox. He picked up his fourth save of the season on Wednesday night, and he now has 11 strikeouts without a single walk and just five hits allowed in 6.1 innings of work. The back end of that Boston bullpen is really scary with Alexi Ogando, Craig Breslow, Junichi Tazawa and Uehara all pitching well, so Masterson won't have to do a ton to get the win in this game.
PROP TALK
You don't think about it with these two teams and their starting staffs, but the Yanks and Sox are both in the Top 5 in the league in total strikeouts. The Yankees are averaging striking out 9.45 men per game and are the only team in the league with over 200 strikeouts as of Wednesday, while the Red Sox are fanning 8.68 men per game. Expect to see a ton of punch outs in this one as well.
ANALYSIS & PREDICTION
The Yankees lost two of the three games these two teams played against each other in the Bronx earlier this year, and we think they are heading towards another series defeat in this one.
For whatever reason, the name "CC Sabathia" still holds some weight (no pun intended) for the general public, and we just aren't sure why. Masterson isn't exactly lighting things up, but we know that he has a lot of help behind him. Look for the vet to throw six or so solid frames, and the Boston bullpen will ultimately do the rest.
Boston 5, New York 3
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