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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Atlanta Braves have been a pleasant surprise on the field and at the betting window three weeks into the season. The Bravos enter their series at Philadelphia with an 8-7 record but are just 3-7 since opening the year with five straight wins. The Braves are still in the black 2.67 units through their first 15 games and cashed the over six times in eight games prior to this series and 10 times in their first 15 games.
Philadelphia has settled into the basement of the NL East, right were most prognosticators envisioned they would be before the season started. The Phils have been a strong over play through 16 games, surpassing the total eight times with three pushes, but that’s about it. They are down 4.86 units on the moneyline and at 7-9 on the runline the Phils are in the red 5.91 units. The Phillies have committed two or more errors six times in their first 16 games this season with porous defense leading to 12 unearned runs to help the over play.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Atlanta’s Trevor Cahill (0-2, 9.95 ERA) retired 12 of 14 batters before his command wavered during New York’s four-run fifth inning on Tuesday. He failed to record an out in the fifth and was charged with all four runs – three earned – on five hits in the loss.
Cahill is 2-3 with a 3.60 ERA over 30 innings in six games – four starts – in his career against the Phillies with the bulk of that work during the past three seasons in Arizona.
Philadelphia’s Jerome Williams (1-1, 3.71 ERA) picked up his first win of the season Tuesday against Miami scattering eight hits and a walk with three runs – two earned – in six innings in his second quality start of the year. His only mistake resulted in a 450-foot Giancarlo Stanton home run.
Williams is 1-3 with a 5.26 ERA in eight career games – seven starts – against the Braves. He revitalized his career after coming over to the Phillies last August.
QUOTE TO NOTE
“It’s frustrating, it really is. We’ve worked at it, we’ll continue to work at it, but fundamental baseball is a priority, making the routine plays is a priority, hitting the cutoff man is a priority, so it’s been disappointing.” – Phillies manager Ryne Sandberg
LIVE BETTING or SITUATIONAL BETTING
Though the Phillies have been trending down for the past few years they were, for the most part, solid defensively. Now that aspect of the club is falling apart. After committing three errors Wednesday they followed that with two more Thursday, as well as a few other mental mistakes, that cost them in a 9-1 loss to Florida. Through 16 games the Phillies have committed a MLB-high 17 errors that led to 12 unearned runs. It’s always an adventure with the Phils’ mix of aging vets and inexperienced youth in the field. If the opponent puts the ball in play there’s always a chance they can rally for a run.
PROP TALK
With a restructured roster and many new faces roaming around the Braves locker room this season one familiar player is first baseman Freddie Freeman, who burst onto the scene in 2011 and is the big stick in the middle of the Atlanta order. At 26 Freeman is a veteran on the club that has gone through a major overhaul and he’s settling into his role as a leader. A career .285 hitter Freeman has done well against the Phillies with a .279 average and six home runs. Freeman hits righties particularly well and shouldn’t be fooled by Phils starter Jerome Williams. We like Freeman to supply some offense by knocking in a few runs off the veteran righty.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Both teams appear to be settling into their positions within the NL East Division which is near the bottom. The Braves are still above .500 entering this series despite winning just three of 10 coming in and a visit to Philly could help them keep their winning record for a few more days. Their pitching was lights out during a season-opening five-game winning streak and has regressed steadily since but will get better against the light-hitting Phillies.
The Phillies have struggled in every aspect of the game leading to their last-place standing the division. A team batting average just over .200, a staff ERA of nearly four and a bunch of errors and mental lapses in the field add up to not very good baseball. Jerome Williams has been a bright spot in the rotation with a pair of quality starts in his first three outings but when Jerome Williams is at the top of your rotation it isn’t that good.
Atlanta 7, Philadelphia 3
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