ODDS ANALYSIS
Rivals in the NL East meet for the third time this season when the Atlanta Braves and Miami Marlins play three-game set over the weekend. The Braves won four of the first six in the season series and have won seven of nine entering this series in Miami over the last year, including a three-game sweep at Marlins Park to open the season.
Atlanta enters the series with just one win in six games following a 5-1 loss at Cincinnati on Wednesday and is in the red 2.32 units over its first 34 games. They outscored the Marlins 16-3 in the opening three games, all as the underdog, to finish up 3.83 units. Offensively the Braves have slowed playing the under in all three games of a just completed series at Cincinnati, but are still a good play on the over at 20-12-2 for the year. Atlanta has lost its last six games with Alex Wood starting and the over is 5-1-1 in his seven starts.
The Fish return home after winning four times on a 10-game road trip, replacing their closer Steve Cishek in the process after a pair of blown saves in back-to-back games. The trip could’ve finished much different, instead the Marlins are still trying to get on track. Miami is also a solid play on the over going 7-3 on their trip and 21-12-2 for the season. The Marlins cashed the under in each of Mat Latos’ last two starts and are 3-1 on the moneyline in his last four starts.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Atlanta’s Alex Wood (1-2, 4.28 ERA) surrendered three first inning runs to the Nationals on Sunday then settled down, allowing just four hits over his final 5.2 innings. He fanned seven with one walk and was saddled with the loss. The southpaw seemed to find the feel he’s been seeking with both his sinker and changeup.
Wood tossed five innings to get a win against Miami on Apr. 7 giving up four hits and two runs with four strikeouts. He’s started seven of 10 career games against the Marlins going 3-3 with a 3.74 ERA.
After a slow start Mat Latos (1-3, 4.72 ERA) has made steady progress, especially in his last two starts. He pitched a great game Sunday surrendering just one run on seven hits in a season-high seven innings with five K’s and no walks and has given up just nine hits and two runs with 11 strikeouts over 13.1 innings in his last two.
Latos squared off with Wood on Apr. 7 and failed to make it out of the first inning in a 12-2 loss giving up seven runs on six hits with a pair of walks in two-thirds of an inning. He faced the Braves in his second start and was a little better giving up two earned runs and five hits in four innings. Despite his rough outings with the Braves earlier, his career numbers are decent with a 4.56 ERA and 45 strikeouts in 51.1 innings.
QUOTE TO NOTE
“Just having to come back from that is more of a, I don’t want to say a fresh start. I didn’t really have a great spring. Then you kind of push it into the season. It stinks that it pushed into the season. That’s what I’ve been known for - my Aprils are terrible for some reason. April doesn’t like me. I’m getting into the swing of things now.” – Mat Latos revealing for the first time his left knee had fluid drained in the spring
LIVE BETTING or SITUATIONAL BETTING
The backend of the Marlins bullpen is in flux now that former closer Steve Cishek has been ousted following another meltdown. The side-arming righty appeared to regain his closers touch with four straight scoreless outings, getting a win and two saves, then came the fateful games on the West Coast. He was one out away from a save at San Francisco Sunday before giving it up then the next night LA’s Scott Van Slyke’s walkoff homer prompted his removal. Cishek now has more blown saves than saves. The most likely candidate to take over the ninth-inning role is AJ Ramos, who tossed a perfect inning Wednesday for his first career save. Other names to watch include Bryan Morris, Mike Dunn and free agent Rafael Soriano.
PROP TALK
Hitting a baseball completely out of Dodger Stadium is a big deal with unofficial records indicating it’s been done only three times prior to Tuesday night when Giancarlo Stanton launched the longest home run in the majors this season, a 478-foot blast that hit the back of the canopy above the left-field bleachers and bounced out of the park. It was his eighth homer of the year and snapped a three-game hitless streak that covered 12 at-bats. Stanton is starting to look more comfortable at the plate, getting used to wearing a helmet that has a face mask on it, protecting him after getting hit in the face late last season. Stanton was enjoying an MVP-type season before getting beaned last year and appears to be regaining that form. Watch for him to touch Alex Wood for a few hits as the Marlins get a win.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Braves were a bit of a surprise at the beginning of the year with their 5-0 start but have settled near the bottom of the division standings, just ahead of the Phillies. Offensively the Braves have some weapons but too many holes at the bottom of the lineup to produce many big innings. Outside of Shelby Miller the pitching has been inconsistent and the Braves have played around with the backend of their pen as well with closer Jason Grilli carrying an ERA over 5.00.
Happy to be back in South Beach after a 10-game trip that had them on the West Coast, the Marlins will be looking for payback against the team that roughed them up in the opening series of the year, getting them off to a disappointing start they haven’t quite overcome. Starter Mat Latos has been impressive his last two outings and would like to redeem himself after getting touched up by the Braves for seven runs in just two-thirds of an inning in an embarrassing 12-2 home loss on Apr. 7. He shuts them down and the Fish get the win.
Miami 7, Atlanta 2
The MLB lines for this contest will first be released by BookMaker Sportsbook. BookMaker is going to have multiple betting options available for this nationally-televised baseball matchup. Live wagering during commercials offers an adjusted moneyline, individual inning run totals and next hitter results. Log in and start gambling during the game now!
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker Sportsbook! You can wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. Real-time spreads, totals, props and moneyline odds are all available by clicking here so start betting with BookMaker today! The ballgame pitting the Atlanta Braves versus the Miami Marlins will commence Saturday, May 16, 2015, at 1:05 p.m. ET at Marlins Park. The contest will be televised nationally on FS1.
