ODDS ANALYSIS
The Atlanta Braves and Cincinnati Reds conclude their season series with a three-game set starting Monday in a rematch of a pitching performance from 11 days ago. Both teams enter with losing streaks and something’s gotta give.
After winning their first four away from Atlanta the Braves are 2-9 in opposing ballparks, including a three-game sweep in Washington over the weekend capped with Sunday’s 5-4 loss. The Braves have cashed the over in each of their last five games and are 20-9-2 on the year. The team’s split a four-game set last week with the under cashing twice with a push and a game featuring Monday’s starters ended below the total. The Braves have cashed the under five times in six games started by Shelby Miller.
Cincinnati has played average baseball and is in the middle of just about everything at this point of the season. The Reds rank 15th in ERA, 19th in runs per game and their record is 15-16. We can say they are an average team on the field and at the betting window. Heck they’re even 14-14-3 on the over/under. Be selective when wagering on the Reds but remember starting pitcher Mike Leake is a good hitter in the ninth hole and homered off Shelby Miller the last time these two met on Apr. 30.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Atlanta’s Shelby Miller (4-1, 1.66 ERA) will ride the momentum he gained from tossing a three-hit shutout against the Phillies on Tuesday. He walked one and struck out eight throwing 99 pitches for his third career shutout and sports an impressive 1.66 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 38 innings.
Miller allowed two earned runs on six hits with nine K’s over seven innings in a 5-1 loss to Leake and the Reds on Apr. 30 and is 2-3 with a 3.24 ERA in seven career starts versus Cincy.
Mike Leake (2-1, 2.47 ERA) tossed eight scoreless innings to pick up his second win of the season Wednesday against the Pirates. He scattered six singles without a walk and has fired eight scoreless innings in back-to-back games lowering his ERA to 2.47 and his WHIP to 0.97.
Leake allowed just two hits in eight scoreless against the Braves on Apr. 30 to earn his first win of the year. He also homered off Shelby Miller in that game and is 4-2 with a 2.03 ERA in seven career starts against the Braves.
QUOTE TO NOTE
“First-pitch strikes are huge and ground balls are huge. It’s all about staying in pitchers counts. I felt like we did a good job of that. AJ (catcher Pierzynski) called a great game. I think I only shook him off once or twice.” – Braves pitcher Shelby Miller after shutting out the Phillies last week.
LIVE BETTING or SITUATIONAL BETTING
The Reds started their just completed 10-game road trip with a visit to the Braves on Apr. 30 when starters Mike Leake and Shelby Miller opened a four-game set. Now here they are again. Leake and the Reds got the better of the Braves in that first game posting a 5-1 win with Leake going yard against Miller for his fifth career home run. Leake is one of the better hitting pitchers in the NL and has helped himself out by driving in runs in each of his last two starts. Pitchers can always help themselves out at the plate and Leake has done that over his career. Keep that in mind when his spot in the order comes up.
PROP TALK
Shortstop Andrelton Simmons is one young player the Braves are hanging their rebuilding hopes on and so far the 25-year-old is off to a solid start in his fourth year with the club. Simmons had an eight-game hit streak snapped Sunday and his .277 average is a huge improvement over his last two seasons. Simmons won’t hit for power, though he did hit 17 homers two seasons ago, he’s the sparkplug that gets on base and scores runs. He scored 13 times during his hit streak and is among the league leaders in runs scored. He’s enjoyed success against the Reds and Mike Leake over his career and is a strong candidate to plate a few runs on Monday.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Braves ran into a red-hot Washington Nationals team over the weekend and were swept to fall a season-high three games under .500. When Atlanta traded Jason Heyward to St. Louis for Shelby Miller, many fans were not happy, but the Braves acquired an ace that has the ability to stop skids like the one they’re currently in. Miller tossed a three-hit shutout in his last outing and needs a similar effort to get the Braves back in the win column. The Reds got the better of him on Apr. 30, but Miller returns the favor Monday.
Losing the final two games of a three-game set to the White Sox over the weekend didn’t sit well with the Reds. A return home after a 5-5 road trip will be welcomed but the sight of Shelby Miller on the bump for the visitors won’t. Several Reds hitters have struggled against the Braves’ righty even though they tagged him with a loss last time they faced him. And let’s face it, Mike Leake is decent but he isn’t Cy Young and the Braves touch him up on Monday.
Atlanta 5, Cincinnati 2
The MLB lines for this contest will first be released by BookMaker Sportsbook. Since this game can be seen by anyone with a TV, BookMaker will have a multitude of wagering options available for it. Outside of the normal lines, you can gamble on real-time moneylines, player props and inning totals. Live betting is open during every commercial break!
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker Sportsbook! You can wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. Real-time spreads, totals, props and moneyline odds are all available by clicking here so start betting with BookMaker today! The ballgame pitting the Atlanta Braves versus the Cincinnati Reds will commence Monday, May 11, 2015, at 7:10 p.m. ET at Great American Ball Park. The matchup can be seen live on ESPN.
