The Atlanta Braves fell out of playoff contention when they dropped 18 of 24 games from July 8 to August 5, but facing the Miami Marlins should get them headed in the right direction. The Braves own the season series with eight wins in the first 10 games and aim to improve on those numbers when the teams conclude their four-game set Sunday.
ODDS ANALYSIS
Maybe facing the Miami Marlins is what Shelby Miller needs to finally end his long winless drought. Miller nearly threw a no-hitter in Miami on May 17 before settling for a two-hit shutout. He hasn’t won in 14 starts since, working with the worst run support of any starter in the majors. The Braves have scored a total of 14 runs while Miller was on the mound during the winless stretch, going 2-12 in those games despite a nifty 3.14 ERA by the All-Star. The under is 6-2 in his last eight starts. Though the Braves played their way out of playoff contention, they’ve beaten up on the Marlins this season winning four straight and eight of 10 following Thursday’s 9-8 win. The Braves are up 7.31 units in the series and the team’s cashed the over for the fifth time in the last six meetings.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Brad Hand (1-2, 4.71 ERA) has bounced back and forth from the bullpen to the rotation, but now he’s getting his second straight start. The lefty threw 84 pitches in four scoreless innings against the Mets on Tuesday and left with the lead though he didn’t qualify for a win. It was his first start since June 8 when he lasted just two-thirds of an inning and was charged with six runs. He had eight scoreless outings in 10 relief stints between starts.
Hand has tossed eight scoreless innings giving up just one hit with five strikeouts in three relief appearances against the Braves this season.
After allowing just two runs to the Giants in his most recent outing, Shelby Miller (5-8, 2.44 ERA) has now given up two runs or fewer in 17 of 22 starts this season. Still, his winless streak is up to 14 straight games, despite a 3.14 ERA over that period.
Two of Miller’s five wins this season have come against the Marlins in three dominating starts. He’s allowed just one run and nine hits in 19 innings for a 0.47 ERA. He tossed five scoreless frames on Apr. 8 and took a no-decision.
QUOTE TO NOTE
“I don’t know, I can’t explain it. We know it, too, as an offense when he pitches. I think we just try to do too much. We would really, really like to bust out and get the guy a lead, but god, lately every time hit pitches, we can’t do it.” – Braves infielder Chris Johnson on the lack of run support for Shelby Miller
LIVE BETTING or SITUATIONAL BETTING
The Braves are hopeful to have Andrelton Simmons back in the lineup this weekend. The shortstop missed five starts after suffering a bone bruise in his right thumb while trying to make a diving catch against the Phillies last Saturday. He’s happy with the progression over the past few days and is optimistic about returning to face the Marlins. Daniel Castro his filled in nicely in the absence of Simmons but the rookie is just getting his feet wet in the big leagues. Simmons is a building block for the future Braves and, although his power numbers are down from last season, his average and on-base percentage are higher while he continues to play excellent defense from his shortstop position.
PROP TALK
The Marlins have just nine hits off Shelby Miller in 64 at-bats over three games and Dee Gordon has accounted for one-third of those. Gordon, who had a pair of hits in the series opener Thursday to raise his average to .330, is not only hitting off Miller, but he’s raking the entire Braves pitching staff. He has 15 hits against Atlanta in 10 games this season for a .357 average and has driven in nine while scoring four times. The Miami speedster also has four stolen bases.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
As good as Shelby Miller is pitching he just can’t buy a win. To go 14 starts without a victory while compiling an ERA of just over 3.00 is amazing. But he is facing the Marlins, a team he’s beaten twice already this season and should probably have a third win against, but that’s been his luck this year. Miller had to throw a two-hit shutout to get his last win – which was against Miami – and may have to do the same since he gets the poorest run support of any starter in the league. He’s been especially nasty this season when facing the fish and his dominance continues, but the streak doesn’t.
Atlanta 4, Miami 2
The baseball betting odds for this game will first be available at BookMaker Sportsbook. BookMaker is going to have multiple betting options available for this nationally-televised baseball matchup. Live wagering during commercials offers an adjusted moneyline, individual inning run totals and next hitter results. Log in and start gambling during the game now!
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