ODDS ANALYSIS
A team that struggles at the plate facing a pitcher that doesn’t allow many hits. It’s not a good situation for the Brewers as they face Shelby Miller and the Atlanta Braves Saturday. Milwaukee has the major’s worst hitting club and their team average dipped even further with only two hits in Thursday’s series opener.
Milwaukee has shown some improvement since replacing manager Ron Roenicke with Craig Counsell, but they really couldn’t get much worse. The Brewers went 3-4 over the first seven games of their current road trip down only 0.36 units on the moneyline, but they have been a money trap for the season, in the red 10.83 units while down 14.07 units on the runline. The under is 9-8-2 in Milwaukee’s 19 road games and 3-1 in Mike Fiers’ last four starts.
Can you call a .500 team a surprise? You can if it’s this edition of the Atlanta Braves, who traded away several assets during the offseason to stockpile young talent, shed payroll and prepare for a move to a new ballpark. Few thought they’d be competitive but they have been, in the black 2.36 units this season on the moneyline and 4.56 units on the runline. The Braves have been a strong play on the over at home going 5-2-1 in their last eight and 13-4-2 overall but they’ve cashed the under seven times in eight Shelby Miller starts.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Milwaukee’s Mike Fiers (1-4, 4.75 ERA) got a no-decision yielding two runs on six hits in 5.2 innings with a walk and three strikeouts Monday at Detroit. He hasn’t been much of an innings-eater tossing just 41.2 over eight starts and has pitched past the sixth inning just once.
Fiers will face the Braves for the first time in his career, completing the National League circuit – minus Milwaukee for whom he’s played his entire career.
Atlanta’s Shelby Miller (5-1, 1.33 ERA) lost his bid for a no-hitter with two out in the ninth inning, instead finishing with a two-hit shutout of the Marlins on Sunday. It was his second shutout in his last three starts allowing one run with 20 strikeouts over 25 innings in that span.
Miller has been dominant against the Brewers in eight career starts going 5-0 with a 2.20 ERA giving up just 39 hits with 41 Ks in 49 innings. He has walked 12 and allowed five home runs or those numbers could be even better.
QUOTE TO NOTE
“He was locked in. He pretty much just made one mistake – it was to the guy who got the hit. He tried to go in and wanted to throw it off the plate, but he threw it right down the middle. Those things happen, and it stinks, but Shelby pitched a great game.” – Braves catcher AJ Pierzynski after Shelby Miller lost a no-hitter with two out in the ninth inning Sunday
LIVE BETTING or SITUATIONAL BETTING
Braves starter Shelby Miller tossed a pair of shutouts in his last three starts and came within one out of a no-hitter in his last outing, giving up a ground ball single at Miami on Sunday, settling for a two-hit blanking of the Marlins. A start before that he allowed three hits to the Phillies and gave up three hits in seven innings in between. It takes plenty of luck to throw a no-no but if you’re looking at the possibility, this is it. Miller is on fire and the Brewers have the weakest hitting team in baseball. Could it be the first no-hitter in the majors?
PROP TALK
Brewers third baseman Aramis Ramirez has seen a lot of good pitchers over his 18-year career and he’s seen a lot of Shelby Miller. The two squared off plenty of times as Central Division rivals during Miller’s time in St. Louis and Ramirez has had plenty of success against the Braves righty with seven hits in 16 at-bats for a .438 average with a pair of home runs. Ramirez has slumped a bit this season as he comes up on his 38th birthday, but he’s hit over .300 on the current road trip and is line for a few hits off Miller.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Brewers showed a little bit of life after a managerial change, going 8-8 in the first 16 games under Craig Counsell. They actually won three of four prior to removing Ron Roenicke from the post going 11-9 in those 20 games. But the Brewers need more consistency on the offensive end to support a staff that lacks a true ace and it’ll be difficult to get to Shelby Miller, who is the best starting pitcher in the NL right now.
Shelby Miller pitched so well last outing he got Florida manager Mike Redmond fired. He won’t do that to the Brewers, who already changed their manager this season, but he will silence the light-hitting Brewers with his 95-plus fastball and array of off-speed pitches. Miller won’t be fatigued after dispatching the Marlins on just 94 pitches in his near no-hitter.
Atlanta 5, Milwaukee 1
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