ODDS ANALYSIS
The Atlanta Braves lost slugger Freddie Freeman and apparently their offense went with him. In seven games since he went on the disabled list with a wrist injury, the Braves scored 13 runs, with six of those coming in one game.
Over their last four games the Braves scored three times, one run in the first three followed by a 7-0 shutout at Washington on Thursday. Atlanta played below the scoreline in all four and the under is 7-2-1 in their last 10. The Braves cashed the under in Julio Teheran’s last outing, breaking a string of eight straight over plays with him on the bump. The over is 12-3 in games when Teheran starts.
It’s evident that Pittsburgh’s starters play a vital role in how the team performs. A recent eight-game win streak was fueled by a rotation that accumulated an ERA below 1.00 during that stretch. When they fail, so does the team. A 5-2 loss Wednesday was the Pirates’ fourth in five games with starters ERA over 9.00. The Pirates are a safe bet at home going winning 13 of 16 at PNC Park to put them in the black 4.93 units on the moneylive for the season. The Bucs took two of three from the Braves in Atlanta early this month cashing the over in games started by Teheran and Charlie Morton.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Julio Teheran (5-3, 4.67 ERA) halted his struggles by surrendering just one hit over seven scoreless innings Sunday, but he had the fortune of facing a right-handed heavy Mets lineup in the 1-0 win. Left-handers have compiled a .396 OBP against him.
Teheran gave up five hits and four runs with five strikeouts and no walks over 7.1 innings getting a no-decision in a 5-4 win over Pittsburgh on June 6. He’s 2-0 with a 3.29 ERA in five games – four starts – against the Pirates in his career.
Charlie Morton (5-1, 3.97 ERA) yielded nine runs on eight hits and a walk while recording two outs against the Nationals on Sunday for his first loss. His streak of 14.1 scoreless innings over his two previous starts ended suddenly. The good news is that Morton is pitching at PNC Park where he’s allowed only two runs over three starts this year.
Morton got the win giving up three earned on seven hits over five innings at Atlanta on June 5. He’s 1-2 with a 3.32 ERA in four career starts against the Braves.
QUOTE TO NOTE
“He really brought all four of his pitches to the yard today. He was terrific. He was locating his fastball and his slider was good on both sides of the plate. He was really pitch-efficient. He could have easily finished that game had we not needed a pinch-hitter.” – Catcher Ryan Lavarnway after Julio Teheran went seven scoreless innings Saturday.
LIVE BETTING or SITUATIONAL BETTING
The pace the Pirates pitching staff established in the middle of the month bordered on unbelievable and now the pendulum has swung the other way in the last week. Pittsburgh lost for the fourth time in five games following Wednesday’s 5-2 setback to the Reds getting a 9.97 ERA out of the starters in that stretch. During the preceding eight-game win streak, the starting rotation amassed a 0.80 ERA and the team tossed five shutouts. Charlie Morton’s contribution to the elevated ERA can’t be overlooked. He gave up nine earned getting just two outs in his last turn. The lineup has done little to cover for the starters with 2.4 runs per game and a .187 average over the last five.
PROP TALK
Andrew McCutchen is the centerpiece of the Pirates order, even when others in the lineup struggle, the former NL MVP continues to put up impressive numbers. McCutchen has just four hits during Pittsburgh’s 1-4 skid, but one of those was a two-run homer to power the Pirates to their only win in that stretch. Cutch has brought his average to where he’s tickling the .300 mark and will get over that soon. Facing Julio Teheran could expedite the process. McCutchen has five hits in 12 at-bats off the Braves righty with two leaving the yard, and he also hits .325 this year at PNC Park. Watch for him to ignite the Pirates offense.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The loss of Freddie Freeman is a big blow to the Braves offense. With the sweet-swinging lefty healing a sore wrist, the Braves stumbled scoring three runs in their last four games. The Braves are not exuding confidence at the dish heading into Pittsburgh to face a staff that has been dominant at times, however not so much lately. Morton was cuffed around his last time out but has been just short of brilliant in his three home starts. The Bucs have performed well at home and continue that ride with a win over the Braves.
Pittsburgh 4, Atlanta 3
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