The Cubs look to stay in the hunt for a National League wild card berth as July winds down, but they’ll have to do so against a Brewers team that has had success against Chicago this season. The NL Central rivals meet for the first time since early May in the second of a four-game weekend set.
ODDS ANALYSIS
The Cubs concluded a 2-4 homestand by capturing the final game in a 3-2 win over Colorado on Wednesday. Chicago took two of three from the Rockies after getting swept by the Phillies, finishing the stay in the red 5.94 units on the moneyline. The Cubs might be looking forward to hitting the road, where they’ve played much better lately winning seven of their last 10 away from Wrigley Field where they were up 3.85 units. Though they’ve played well at Miller Park recently, it’s been a struggle for the Brewers most of the season. Milwaukee put together a modest four-game winning streak after the All-Star break with all coming at home, but have regressed with just two wins in eight games following Wednesday’s shutout loss at San Francisco. The Brewers scored just 12 runs during their recent seven game road trip where they went 2-5 with the under at 5-1-1. The Brewers won four of the first six meetings between the teams up 2.85 units and took two of three in Milwaukee in early May scoring 21 runs total.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Aside from an injury-shortened outing, Jason Hammel (5-5, 3.20 ERA) had the shortest start of the season Sunday when he allowed six runs on eight hits in 3.2 innings to Philadelphia. He’s gone eight games without earning a win but he’s allowed more than two earned runs just twice in that span.
In two starts this season against the Brewers, Hammel is 1-0 with a 3.46 ERA over 12 innings. He allowed two runs and five hits over seven innings in a win at Miller Park on May 8 and is undefeated there in four decisions posting a 1.60 ERA and 29 strikeouts in 33.2 innings.
Taylor Jungmann (5-2, 2.14 ERA) had won three straight starts before losing to the Dbacks on Saturday in an outing doomed by a two-run, 33-pitch first inning. He recovered to blank Arizona on one hit over the next five frames but the Brewers couldn’t mount an attack in the 2-0 loss. Jungmann has a 1.59 ERA in three starts at home and will face the Cubs for the first time.
QUOTE TO NOTE
“I’m happy with the adjustment I made. Obviously I’m not happy with the entire outing, just because the first inning was a little frustrating. It was kind of a mental adjustment, trying to pound the zone. Early, I was timid.” – Brewers pitcher Taylor Jungmann, who blanked Arizona on one hit after surrendering a pair of runs in the first inning of a 2-0 loss.
LIVE BETTING or SITUATIONAL BETTING
Thanks to an improved starting rotation the Cubs remain in the hunt for a wild card playoff spot as the month of July winds down. The team is still waiting for its hitting prospects to bust loose and lend a hand. The Cubs haven’t been providing much offense with just 3.0 runs per game and a .222 average over a 14-17 span, but that was enough in Wednesday’s 3-2 win over Colorado. Anthony Rizzo homered for the first time in 18 games, a stretch during which he’s batting .203. Kris Bryant went 0 for 4 as his average dropped below .250 for the first time since May 10 and he’s hitting .129 in his last 16. Kyle Schwarber was inserted into left field for a full game for the first time, and while the rookie is 2 for 14 in his last seven games, he has a .400 on-base percentage in that span.
PROP TALK
After slumping before the All-Star break, Chicago’s Dexter Fowler has regained a bit of his offensive form of late. Fowler hit his ninth home run of the season and walked twice in Wednesday’s win over the Rockies and has reached base in 13 straight games while hitting safely in 10 of those. The Cubs center fielder is hitting .378 in that span raising his average from .225 to .243 and has walked 15 times while scoring 11 runs.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
If the Cubs are going to be in contention for a playoff spot over the final two months of the season wins over the Brewers would be a big help. Chicago has stumbled against Milwaukee this year dropping four of the first six games against the NL Central’s last place team. Chicago needs Jason Hammel to get back on track after a rough outing and he does, taking care of a team that has plated just seven runs in five games prior to this series while getting shutout three times.
Chicago 4, Milwaukee 2
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