Cardinals dominating Cubs in season series, play Game 1 Tuesday afternoon on MLB Network

ODDS ANALYSIS

The Cardinals continued their dominance over the Cubs even when they couldn’t get a hit for much of Monday’s series opener. St. Louis scored all of its runs over the final three innings in a 6-0 win and improved to 8-2 against Chicago this season, up 5.84 units on the moneyline.

The Cards stretched their winning streak to three, nearly wiping out the bitterness of a season-long four-game slide that preceded their current run. The Cards have won five straight over the Cubs, limiting them to five runs in that stretch with the under at 4-0-1.

Still waiting for a young lineup to start clicking offensively, the Cubs have scored two or fewer runs 11 times in their last 14 games but still managed to go 7-7 in that span while the under is 11-3. Chicago is used to playing below the scoreline at Wrigley Field with the under at 10-1 in their last 11 home games and 26-10-3 overall. The teams have cashed the under in each of the first three games between them at Wrigley Field.

PITCHING MATCHUP

Tyler Lyons (2-0, 5.09 ERA) will fill the hole left by the decision to send Jaime Garcia to the disabled list. He’ll be designated the 26th man for Game 1 of Tuesday’s doubleheader. He hasn’t pitched at the big league level since June 19 when he allowed three runs and seven hits in five innings in a win at Philadelphia. Lyons has not pitched more than five innings in any of his five starts.

Lyons makes his second start versus the Cubs this season after giving up six hits and three earned over 4.1 innings in a game the Cards won 7-4 on May 5.

Jake Arrieta (8-5, 2.80 ERA) was superb in Thursday’s 6-1 win at the Mets, giving up just five hits and a run with seven strikeouts. He’s worked late in games during his last three outings, providing relief for an active bullpen. In that span he’s thrown 24 innings with one complete game, while allowing just two earned runs.

Arrieta is 1-1 with a 2.33 ERA in three starts this season against the Cards. He tossed seven shutout innings at Wrigley Field in a 2-0 win on Apr. 8. In eight career starts against them, Arrieta is 3-1 with a 1.48 ERA and 1.01 WHIP, holding St. Louis to a .182 average over 48.2 innings.

QUOTE TO NOTE

“The Cardinals are a veteran team. They do everything right. They make the plays when they’re in front of them. They have timely hitting. They understand it takes nine innings to win a baseball game. We’re close. We’ve got a bunch of young guys who are trying to ... I don’t want to say survive, because they’re beyond that point. They’re too good to survive. When you’re used to winning, you understand how to win. That will take some time here.” – Cubs pitcher Jon Lester

LIVE BETTING or SITUATIONAL BETTING

Cubs’ first baseman Anthony Rizzo is on pace for a historic season. No, he’s not clubbing home runs at an alarming rate, driving in base runners in bunches or challenging Ted Williams’ .400 batting average. Rizzo leads the majors in getting hit by pitches. It’s happened an alarming 17 times already this season, and to put that in perspective, last year’s leader, John Jay, was plunked 20 times. Rizzo is on pace to be hit 34 times – something that hasn’t been done in over a decade. Rizzo has changed his batting stance, moving closer to the plate for better extension against left-handed pitchers. That strategy has worked with a .333 average against lefties, but it’s also left him exposed to getting hit with inside pitches.

PROP TALK

Sure the Cardinals have the best ERA in the majors and have handled the Cubs rather easily this season, but the Cubbies get a St. Louis hurler in Tyler Lyons who’s numbers don’t quite fit with the rest of the staff. Kris Bryant is one player that will take advantage. Bryant extended his hitting streak to seven games on Monday and leads the team with 49 RBIs. The rookie hits .328 at Wrigley Field with nine of his 12 homers coming in the friendly confines. Lyons is susceptible to the long ball, surrendering five in just 23 innings.

ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION

The Cubs are better than what we’ve seen from the north siders in some time however they just aren’t at the same level as the Cardinals right now. Even manager Joe Maddon sees the difference, saying, “They’ve had our number. I definitely admit to that. There’s a long way to go yet.” Chicago gets a break in Game 1 of the doubleheader when Tyler Lyons takes the hill. Lyons isn’t the best option for the Cards, but apparently he’s the only option with Jaime Garcia going on the DL and the clubs forced to make-up a game that was rained out back in April. Chicago got to Lyons back in May and they do so again for a rare win over their division rivals.

Chicago 5, St. Louis 2

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