Behind the best pitching staff in baseball the St. Louis Cardinals own the major leagues best record and are the most profitable team. The Cards have been a dream for under bettors with Jaime Garcia on the hill, playing below the scoreline in seven of his nine starts this season and hand him the ball in the middle of a three-game set with the Brewers.
ODDS ANALYSIS
The Cardinals haven’t been scoring a lot of runs, but they don’t need to with the best pitching staff in the majors. Those two components make for plenty of low scoring games and that’s exactly what we’ve gotten from them. In 14 games since putting up an eight spot against the White Sox on July 21, the Cardinals scored a total of 45 runs for an average of 3.2 per game. Take out two games at Coors Field where the Birds tallied 16 times and that average plummets to 2.4. But, thanks to a staff that sports a 2.65 ERA the Cards are 9-5 in that stretch. The lack of offense and strong pitching is a boon to under bettors with the Cardinals’ under record at 11-2-1 during that 14-game span.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Jaime Garcia (3-4, 1.98 ERA) lasted just five innings in his last start, largely due to extended pitch counts and the four walks he issued. But he allowed just one run on two hits in a no-decision with the Rockies on Sunday. It was a rare inefficient 88-pitch outing for the lefty who has yet to give up more than three runs in any of his nine starts.
Garcia was the tough-luck loser in a 1-0 game against the Brewers on June 1, outdueled by since departed Mike Fiers. He is 3-1 with a 4.34 ERA over 29 innings in five career starts at Miller Park.
Wily Peralta (2-6, 4.55 ERA) got knocked around in his second outing since returning from the disabled list with a strained left oblique. The right-hander allowed six runs on eight hits against the Padres in just 3.1 innings on Monday. He’s shown promise at times this season but has been prone to rough outings, such as his last one. He should get better with some innings under his belt after missing two months of the season.
His four wins against the Cardinals are the most against any team, but so are his six losses. He owns a 4.43 ERA in 11 lifetime starts against St. Louis.
QUOTE TO NOTE
“You’re just trying to put guys in spots where they might have some success and see how it comes together as a group. More so than anything else, it’s just trying to figure out how to get guys in a spot where they’re going to be comfortable.” – Cardinals manager Mike Matheny on his constant shuffling of the team’s lineup.
LIVE BETTING or SITUATIONAL BETTING
Cardinals’ manager Mike Matheny continues to shuffle his batting order looking for the right combination to get the offense clicking. Matheny wrote out his 86th different batting order on Wednesday, the team’s 107th game of the season. Some of the maneuvering was due to injuries. The Cards never had any intention of trying out new three-hole hitters until Matt Holliday landed on the disabled list. More of the juggling, however, has come in an attempt to jumpstart and offense averaging 3.96 runs per game. Matt Carpenter returned to the leadoff spot, a place where he’s thrived, and is likely to stay there. Jason Heyward, who is now auditioning in the three-hole, has started in every spot, one through eight, and Yadier Molina actually leads the team in starts from the fifth, sixth and seventh places in the order.
PROP TALK
As Mike Matheny continues to tinker with his team’s batting order, he might want to start with the No. 2 hitter and write the name Matt Carpenter in ink at the leadoff spot. Carpenter is hitting .357 with nine of his 15 home runs coming while slotted at the top of the order with only 112 at-bats in that position. He’s hitting .333 in nine games against the Brewers this season and can’t wait to face Wily Peralta, who he’s touched for 12 hits, including two doubles and a home run, in 27 lifetime at-bats. If the Cards are going to break out offensively, Carpenter is likely to be in the middle of a rally.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Cardinals are the best team in baseball for a reason. And that reason is pitching. The Cards have the best staff in baseball by a wide margin and they don’t appear to be slipping up. When one man goes down, like Adam Wainwright to a season-ending Achilles injury, another man steps up, like Jaime Garcia. He’s only 3-4 on the year, but the record doesn’t indicate just how dominant Garcia has been. It will be difficult for the Brewers to score enough off him to get a victory.
St. Louis 3, Milwaukee 1
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