There is no doubt that the Chicago Cubs (40-35 SU, +2.07 Units) are in bad shape right now. They haven't scored more than two runs in seven straight games, and though a return home to face the woeful Miami Marlins (32-46 SU, -14.46 Units) seems like a dream, having a de facto Triple-A pitcher scheduled to toe the rubber in the opener on Friday could turn into a nightmare.
PITCHING MATCHUP
That said, we think that Donn Roach provides an interesting live betting opportunity here. The Marlins don't hit the ball all that well, and they strike out a ton (more on that in a minute). Roach keeps the ball on the ground for the most part. He isn't going to give up a lot of fly balls, thus he can limit big innings if he can continue to hammer the strike zone.
Sure, Roach's first start of the year in the bigs didn't go well against the Cardinals, as he allowed four runs and eight hits over just 3.1 innings, but this could be a much different game against the Fish.
Very quietly, Tom Koehler has made himself a commodity this year for the Marlins. They're almost certainly out of it this year, and if they can turn him into a prospect, they would probably be wise to do it.
Still, we just don't know if Koehler can keep this up. This is a man who has always had an ERA in the fours and fives, and all of a sudden, he is 6-4 on a bad team with a 3.66 ERA.
One thing to remember here though, is that Koehler has allowed 12 homers in just 86 innings of work, and he has given up five dingers in his last three outings. Sure, the Cubs don't have a ton of mashers on the team and they strike out more than just about anyone else in baseball, but there is a lot of pop here. If the wind is blowing out, there could be a lot of crooked innings for the hosts.
ADVANCED STATS
The Marlins are pretty bad offensively no matter how you slice it. They rank No. 25 in the league in run production at 3.65 runs per game, and they have one of the worst OPS marks in baseball at just .682.
Let's remember too, that Giancarlo Stanton, now out with a wrist injury for at least a month, has 27 home runs and an OPS of .950 on his own. Take him out of this lineup and replace him with essentially a replacement level player, and what you've got is an offense which is expected to score three runs or fewer virtually every single night.
Miami's ISO is just .122 as a team, a number which dips to a dreadful .111 without Stanton in consideration. With Roach keeping the ball on the ground so much, that lack of power could once again show and help bail out a starter who shouldn't be in the majors.
TALKING BULLPENS
Of course, neither of these teams have all that much of a bullpen, which puts late-game totals into the possibility of live betting as well.
Hector Rondon is out as the closer for Joe Maddon, who is going to go with his famed gut to determine who will be finishing up games. So far, so good. Jason Motte has saved three without a blown save, and he's the best bet for the ninth, but his 3.03 ERA isn't all that convincing.
The Marlins haven't had a good closer all year long. Steve Cishek is back in the majors and is pitching at a much better level now than when he did when he was the closer and was imploding left and right. Still, he has been walking too many batters (12 in 25.2 innings) and is a cancer for live bettors as far as we are concerned.
A.J. Ramos is only 11-for-14 in saves this year, though both he and Carter Capps have at least been efficient, if nothing else.
The baseball betting odds for this game will first be available at BookMaker Sportsbook. BookMaker is going to have multiple betting options available for this baseball matchup. Live wagering during commercials offers and adjusted moneyline, individual inning run totals and next hitter results. Log in, and start gambling during the game now!
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