The Chicago Cubs (47-40, $248) get the second half started against the Atlanta Braves (42-47, $263) and will wrap up the weekend series on Sunday with a pair of talented pitchers squaring off.
ODDS ANALYSIS
The Cubs remain eight games out of a difficult NL Central, behind both the Pirates and Cardinals, but are in the thick of the wildcard race.
After winning four of five, the Cubs lost three straight before salvaging the final game before the All-Star break. Despite the recent ups and downs, Chicago is still well positioned for a playoff push.
They will play Sunday in Atlanta, but are solid on the road, going 22-20 though the Braves are 23-17 at home while just 19-30 on the road.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Sunday figures to be a very good pitching matchup with the Cubs throwing Jake Arrieta against Shelby Miller of the Braves.
Arrieta has pitched like an ace since coming to Chicago. The 29-year old right-hander struggled to find consistency throughout his time in Baltimore, but always showed very good stuff. He’s been able to harness that with the Cubs with a cumulative 2.75 ERA and 24 wins in 52 starts.
On the year, Arrieta is 10-5 with a 2.66 ERA and 0.986 WHIP in 121 2/3 innings. The only concern with the righty is durability in the second half as he’s only topped out at 156 2/3 innings; that coming last year.
While that is a worry down the road, he should be plenty fresh—particularly with the All-Star break—for Sunday.
Miller made the All-Star team, representing the Braves. The 24-year old righty is only 5-5, but his 2.38 ERA and 1.152 WHIP makes him Atlanta’s ace through the first half.
Miller’s last start was the worst of his season, allowing five runs in five innings to the Rockies in Colorado. Anyone can struggle in Coors Field. Miller should be better on Sunday given extra rest and a much better pitchers’ park.
Even with his last start, Miller has still allowed two runs or less in 14 of his 18 starts this year.
QUOTE TO NOTE
After his poor last start, there aren’t any alarms sounding for the Braves. Miller’s teammate, Kelly Johnson had this to say:
“He’s an All-Star and he’s been rewarded in that way. Everybody acknowledges it. He has been pretty good. I don’t think there are any alarms sounding.”
There should not be any alarms. Miller’s stuff was flat and his command was off, but that is typically the case in Colorado with it such a tough place to pitch in.
LIVE/SITUATIONAL BETTING
Pitching is the key for both the Cubs and the Braves. Even with the big name players for the Cubs, they’re averaging just 3.9 runs per game, right in line with Atlanta.
Chicago certainly has more recognizable names, particularly All-Stars and Home Run Derby participants Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant. Those two youngsters have put up great first halves with a .955 OPS and .848 OPS respectively. Outside of them, however, the Cubbies are made up of streaky youngsters, inconsistent role players and a couple underperforming veterans.
Despite that, manager Joe Maddon has been able to pull the right strings more often than not to get the win.
Having Rizzo and Bryant in the middle certainly helps, but you can pitch to this lineup. The team is banking on a big second half from Jorge Soler who possesses the power and ability to join Rizzo and Bryant, making it a fearsome threesome. All in all, the real issue is at shortstop where Starlin Castro (.603 OPS) continues his steady decline.
While the Braves’ overall offensive numbers are comparable to the Cubs, they have one distinct disadvantage in his series: Freddie Freeman is injured.
Freeman, in many ways, is this team’s offense. The first baseman leads the team in OPS (.887), home runs (12) and total bases (132). He is also tied for the lead in doubles (20) and second in RBIs (41).
Without Freeman, the team has little pop. Kelly Johnson has the most homers of any active player with just nine. Still, there are some solid role players. Nick Markakis, although often miscast in the middle of the order, provides a solid at bat every time with a .293 average and .381 OBP, but he’s yet to homer and has been forced to make up for that with 20 doubles.
Cameron Maybin is also having a good year with a .774 OPS and eight homers to go along with 15 steals. Other than that, A.J. Pierzynski (.755 OPS) and Juan Uribe (.829 OPS) have played well, but most of their good numbers are coming from flawed players that have showed recent decline or have injury history in their past.
PROP TALK
A couple interesting Cubs to watch in this game are Soler and Chris Denorfia. Denorfia is having a solid year in a part time role and is 3 for 4 in his career against Miller with a double. Soler, meanwhile, is 2 for 4 with a home run.
On the other side, Pierzynski is a guy to watch for the Braves, provided he gets the start in the early evening game on Sunday. The veteran catcher is 6 for 8 in his career against Arrieta with two home runs.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Braves offense hasn’t been great, but it has surprised a lot of people given the lack of talent. The Cubs clearly have more talent and should have the edge at the plate, particularly with Freeman out.
They also get the nod on the mound with Arrieta having proven himself over a couple years now as Miller’s break out started this season. The Cubs are also the better team in the bullpen. They’re lacking an arm or two, but have a cumulative ERA of 3.13 while the Braves’ ERA is 4.40 and is dealing with the loss of Jason Grilli in the back end.
Chicago 4, Atlanta 2
The baseball betting odds for this game will first be available at BookMaker Sportsbook. BookMaker is going to have multiple betting options available for this nationally-televised baseball matchup. Live wagering during commercials offers an adjusted moneyline, individual inning run totals and next hitter results. Log in and start gambling during the game now!
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