
You wouldn't know it based on the fact that they’re 44-57 and down 11.95 units on the season, but the Milwaukee Brewers have been a rock solid team over the course of the last two and a half months.
They'll have a chance on Friday to put a bit of a crimp in the Chicago Cubs' postseason plans at Miller Park.
ODDS ANALYSIS
The Cubbies have generally been public this year, and for good reason. Joe Maddon has really made this team believe that it can win the World Series, though there is a clear talent gap as we see it between this club and a team like the Cardinals or Royals.
That's why, in spite of the fact that Chicago is 52-47 on the season, it's down -3.73 units for bettors.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Young Taylor Jungmann is part of the future of the Brewers. He's just 25-years old, and is 5-2 with a 2.14 ERA thus far through his first 59 big league innings.
Jungmann really hasn't had a bad start yet. His worst outing was excusable at Coors Field, where he allowed four runs over six frames, but at home, he’s been particularly special, conceding a total of just three runs in 17 innings.
Jason Hammel was surprisingly lit up by the lowly Phillies in his last outing. He gave up eight hits and six runs over 3.2 innings of work.
However, Hammel still owns a solid 3.20 ERA, and his 112 strikeouts against 22 walks are fantastic.
QUOTE TO NOTE
"Trending in the right direction. I'll just get treatment all day multiple times and hope it gets better as quickly as possible." – Ryan Braun on his back problems which have kept him out of the lineup the last few days
SITUATIONAL BETTING
The Cubs have really struggled against right-handed pitching this year. Enter Jungmann. They're batting just .231 as a team against righties, and averaging 3.63 runs per nine innings. To put that in comparison, Chicago's batters are hitting .246 against lefties with an average of 4.48 runs per nine innings.
Clearly, Jungmann holds a big advantage here, especially since this is the first time this lineup is seeing him in his young career.
PROP TALK
With Adam Lind on the trade block and both he and Braun hurting, we're not sure where the power is coming from against a controlled pitcher like Hammel. There isn't another Brewer on the team with more than nine home runs any longer now that Aramis Ramirez is playing for the Pirates, and the man with nine dingers, Gerardo Parra, could also be traded by Friday.
If you've got a chance to bet against men hitting home runs in this game, go for it.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Brewers might be playing respectable baseball, but they still have problems as we see it. Until we know whether Braun is healthy and who is still going to be in the lineup come Friday, we can't reasonably forecast a win for them even if Jungmann throws a really strong game.
As a result, we're going to trust that Hammel's bad game in his last start was just a one-off thing. Expect to see him bounce back against Milwaukee on Friday.
Chicago 4, Milwaukee 2
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