In what could be a preview of the NL Wildcard game, the Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates square off in a three game series beginning on Monday. Pittsburgh currently holds the first wildcard spot with a 59-41 record and has been a profitable team with their moneyline at $1,048.
The Cubs, meanwhile, are two and a half out of the second wildcard at 53-47 and have cost bettors with a total moneyline of -$273.
ODDS ANALYSIS
The Cubs have had a bit of a rough home stand, dropping four of six against the Phillies and the Rockies. They’re hoping a road trip may get them back on track. They’re a solid 26-23 on the road this year and head to Milwaukee before going to Pittsburgh for Monday’s series opener.
The Pirates, of course, play their best baseball at home where they’ve won 35 of 52 played games, and will return home for the series after a two city road trip taking them through Minnesota and Cincinnati.
Overall, Pittsburgh has won three straight and five of six. Over a longer stretch, the Pirates are just 6-6 since the break, but 19-9 in their last 28 games.
PITCHING MATCHUP
In this all important series, Jon Lester will kick things off for the Cubs against Francisco Liriano and the Pirates.
Lester, a veteran southpaw, has had an up-and-down season in Chicago but had a great month of July, pitching to a 1.66 ERA and 0.762 WHIP in 43 1/3 innings. It was his second month with a sub-2 ERA, though he has two others with an ERA well north of five.
Overall, Lester is 6-8 with a 3.26 ERA and 1.168 WHIP in 21 starts and 132 2/3 innings. He’s striking out people at a clip above his career average while walking fewer, leading to a very good 4.25 strike out to walk ratio.
Luck has not been on Lester’s side as his 2.92 FIP indicates this should have been the second best season of his career to date. It’s a good year by any measure, but according to ERA and wins, he’s had several better.
Other than his break out year as a 22-year old in 2006, it’s hard to argue that Liriano has been any better than he is right now.
The southpaw is 7-6 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.061 WHIP with a FIP right in line with his ERA. The 31-year old is striking out 10 batters per nine innings.
In Liriano’s last start, he missed extending his quality start streak to six games by one out though his team did score the 10-4 win.
QUOTE TO NOTE
With a team built on excellent pitching and a deep well of talent, it’s interesting how this team still goes as its MVP, Andrew McCutchen goes. He struggled early and so did the Pirates. He’s playing well now and so are the Pirates.
On Wednesday he helped lead a comeback against the Twins and manager Clint Hurdle spoke about it, saying:
“It’s always good when you’re down on the road and you see McCutchen fire one up. We felt good after that.”
LIVE/SITUATIONAL BETTING
McCutchen’s ability to fire up and lead this team is a big part of their offensive success.
Pitching, of course, leads the way as few teams can match the Pirates’ top three in their rotation, but offense has been big, too. The team is in the middle of the pack in runs scored, but gets enough to get the job done. They’ve also outscored the Cubbies by 30 runs.
While McCutchen is the team’s top performer with a .876 OPS, a .304 average from Francisco Cervelli and a .792 OPS off the bat of Starling Marte has been huge as well.
Even with injuries to Josh Harrison and Jordy Mercer, this team keeps chugging along. Jung Ho Kang’s .811 OPS is a big reason why, though they also picked up Aramis Ramirez to help fill the holes. Unfortunately, his .118 average through 17 at-bats has yet to impress.
For Chicago, they’re looking for someone to provide something at the plate other than Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant. The two All-Stars have done their part, but Chris Coghlan and to a lesser extent Dexter Fowler are the only others to put up an OPS+ over 100, though they’re still hitting just .252 and .244 respectively.
If none of the veterans step up, perhaps rookie Kyle Schwarber is the answer. The youngster is hitting .357 in his 56 big league at-bats.
PROP TALK
Starlin Castro is completely lost right now. The former All-Star shortstop is hitting just .237 and has an OPS of .576. In 22 career at bats against Liriano, he’s 3 for 22 with seven strikeouts.
Castro, of course, isn’t the only Cub to struggle against Liriano. Rizzo’s 4 for 20 with seven strikeouts of his own, but does have the only home run against him of any active Cubs players.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Pitching is the name of the game and it may be a bit of a draw in terms of starters, but the Pirates have the superior bullpen with a 2.71 ERA compared to the Cubs’ 3.44.
The Pirates also have the advantage on offense where McCutchen has more help than the duo of Rizzo and Bryant.
Look for both starters to hold the opposition close, but for the Pirates offense to get it done and lead the home team to the series opening win.
Pittsburgh 4, Chicago 3
The MLB odds for this game will be available first at BookMaker Sportsbook. Gamble on the game between every half inning with BookMaker’s live betting feature. Along with an adjusted in-game moneyline, you can wager on what will happen in the next at-bat or how many runs will be scored in the next inning. Live betting is the most exciting way to play!
Load your betting bankroll from your smartphone with BookMaker’s new cashier feature! Depositing and withdrawing funds from your account has never been easier. BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here and start wagering today! First pitch for the game between the Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates is scheduled for Monday, August 3, 2015, at 7:05 p.m. ET at PNC Park. The matchup can be seen live on ESPN.
