The Pirates inched out the Cubs in the regular season, earning the home field advantage in the wild card game. Pittsburgh will enter play at 98-64 and as one of the best bets in baseball with a cumulative moneyline of $2,135. The Cubs, meanwhile, are just a game behind at 97-65 with a $1,751 tally against the moneyline.
ODDS ANALYSIS
For some teams, home field advantage is a big deal, but for others: not so much. The Cubs fall in the latter category.
Chicago ended the year with 49 wins at home and 48 on the road. Their success is much more dependent on their starter, and they’ve got a good one lined up for Wednesday.
Head-to-head against the Pirates, the Cubs had the upper hand this season, winning 11 of 19 meetings.
Pittsburgh will look to even the odds by playing at PNC Park. For them, home field does matter a bit as they’re 53-28 at home comparted to 45-36 on the road.
PITCHING MATCHUP
This pitching matchup will be a fun one to watch as Gerrit Cole take the hill for the Pirates against Jake Arrieta of the Cubs.
Cole ended the regular season at 19-8 with a 2.60 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in a career high 208 innings of work. The workload is a bit of a concern as it’s a 70 inning bump on last year, but with five straight quality starts, it hasn’t seemed to be an issue of late.
Against the Cubs this year, Cole has thrown four games, going 25 1/3 innings with a 2-1 record, 2.13 ERA and 32 strikeouts.
On the flip side, Arrieta has been nearly unhittable since the start of August with a 0.41 ERA and 11-0 record over 12 starts.
All in all, the 29-year old right-hander ended the season 22-6 with a 1.77 ERA and 0.865 WHIP over a career high 229 innings.
In five starts against the Pirates this season, Arrieta went 3-1 with a 0.75 ERA spanning 36 innings.
QUOTE TO NOTE
Veteran backup catcher David Ross spoke about the upcoming game following their regular season finale, saying:
“We played good there. It’s going to be a little bit different environment, obviously. We’ve played well there, we know this team, they know us, they know we’re good, we know they’re good. It’ll be about who goes out there and played the cleanest game. It’s all about the starting pitcher, too, and we have a really good one.”
LIVE/SITUATIONAL BETTING
Offensively, these two teams were pretty neck-and-neck all season and thus, evenly matched.
The Pirates have scored a few additional runs, but the Cubs boast a bit more power behind youngsters like Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant. Over the second half of the year, the Cubs have had the edge on offense, scoring 13 more runs since the break.
Both teams have a deep team and a deep bench, though the loss of Jung Ho Kang—against the Cubs in the regular season—was a tough blow for the Pirates as he had developed into their cleanup hitter. Still, the team has the parts to overcome that with Andrew McCutchen, Gregory Polanco and Starling Marte still making a nice trio.
For Chicago, Rizzo and Bryant are obviously the keys to this offense, but Kyle Schwarber has been dynamite since his promotion with a .842 OPS.
PROP TALK
As evidenced by his ERA against them this year, Arrieta has owned the Pirates. Still, one Pirate bat has good numbers against him in his career: Andrew McCutchen. The former NL MVP is 8-for-23 against him with a home run and a pair of doubles. Meanwhile, the rest of the lineup is batting below Starling Marte’s .235, most below .200.
Cole has had great success against the Cubs, too. There are, however, a few players that have found success—albeit in limited action. Miguel Montero is 3-for-5 and Chris Denorfia is 3-for-6.
Of the bigger names Bryant is 3-for-9 and Rizzo is 6-for-17. One other Cubs batter to watch is Starlin Castro. The beleaguered shortstop turned second baseman has bit better the last month or so and is 6-for-17 in his career against Cole.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Cubs bats have been hotter of late and their starter, Arrieta, has been basically unhittable since the start of August.
The Pirates certainly have their work cut out for them, but if they can work Arrieta and get him out of the game in the sixth or seventh, they’re odds greatly improve. Pittsburgh has the clear edge in the bullpen.
The Pirates bullpen was the best in the league this year with a 2.67 ERA while the Cubs got solid production, but weren’t nearly as dominant. This is the one area that the Pirates will look to exploit.
Still, given Arrieta’s absolute dominance of late, I’m going with the Cubbies to advance.
Chicago 4, Pittsburgh 2
The MLB odds for this game will be available first at BookMaker Sportsbook. BookMaker is going to have multiple betting options available for this nationally-televised baseball matchup. Live wagering during commercials offers an adjusted moneyline, individual inning run totals and next hitter results. Log in and start gambling during the game now!
Load your betting bankroll from your smartphone with BookMaker’s new cashier feature! Depositing and withdrawing funds from your account has never been easier. BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here and start wagering today! First pitch for the game between the Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates is scheduled for Wednesday, October 7, 2015, at 8:08 p.m. ET at PNC Park. The contest will be broadcast nationally on TBS.
