If the Chicago Cubs are going to make any headway on the Pittsburgh Pirates in the NL Central, they'd better win Tuesday's game with a favorable pitching matchup in store.
ODDS ANALYSIS
The Cubs and Pirates entered play on Sunday separated by just four games in the standings at 56-47 and 60-43 respectively, but they haven't had the same effect on bettors.
Pittsburgh is +8.55 units this season, largely thanks to a 35-17 home record, while the Cubs are just above the breakeven line at +0.27 units.
PITCHING MATCHUP
J.A. Happ is making his debut in a Pirates uniform on Tuesday, and he is going to have high expectations at the back end of the rotation.
Happ will never be a guy who can post a 2.00 ERA and win 20 games, but he is much better than a 4.64 ERA suggests. Happ has a FIP which is over a half run better than his ERA, and that parlayed with his move to the National League should help him out quite a bit.
Jake Arrieta isn't going to be considered for the Cy Young Award this year in the National League, but perhaps he should.
The righty is 11-6 with a 2.62 ERA, and has a stunning 147 strikeouts against just 34 walks.
We're talking about an incredibly consistent pitcher here as well. Arrieta hasn't allowed more than four earned runs in any start made since last August.
QUOTE TO NOTE
"I had a few tough outings. For me, getting a fresh start will be a good thing. I know what I'm capable of, and I know I feel healthy, so I'm excited to get back out there." – Pittsburgh lefty J.A. Happ on his new lease on life in the Steel City
SITUATIONAL BETTING
The Cubs clearly have a new closer right now in Tommy Hunter, and that might play right into their hands. Hector Rondon and Jason Motte are really nothing more than setup men at this point in their careers, and though Hunter has never really been a regular closer, we think he has that makeup to be able to get the job done.
Hunter got his first save against Milwaukee on August 1 in his first day wearing a Cubs uniform, and he did so by throwing a total of just three pitches.
PROP TALK
Gregory Polanco has had a really rough go of it against Arrieta this year. He has just one hit in eight at bats, but more importantly, he’s struck out five times. The young outfielder is growing into a regular spot in the Pittsburgh outfield, but this isn't the game to count on him putting up big numbers.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
We're looking forward to the Pirates being underdogs in this game at home with Happ on the mound.
Arrieta has been great for sure, no questions asked. But in this particular matchup in his third go around against the Pirates, we expect more from the bats.
Happ is capable of going out there in his first start with the Bucs and tossing six or seven solid frames, and we think he is going to do just that against a lineup full of men who have hardly seen him in his career. That's a big advantage for Pittsburgh, especially here at PNC Park.
Pittsburgh 4, Chicago 2
The baseball betting odds for this Tuesday game will first be available at BookMaker Sportsbook. BookMaker is going to have multiple betting options available for this televised baseball matchup. Live wagering during commercials offers an adjusted moneyline, individual inning run totals and next hitter results. Log in and start gambling during the game now!
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