Having both essentially wrapped up a playoff spot, the Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates meet in the second game of a double header Tuesday battling for home field advantage in the wildcard game with an outside shot at overcoming the Cardinals in the central. Pittsburgh enters play at 85-56 with a $1,743 cumulative spread while the Cubs are 82-59 with a $1,091 spread.
ODDS ANALYSIS
The Cubs are, like most teams, better at home, but they’ve been serviceable on the road, going 39-31 this year. They’ve also won seven of their last nine games overall.
While a few games back of the Pirates at the start of the series, the Cubs have the better numbers head-to-head, taking seven of their first 12 matchups.
Of late, Pittsburgh is just 6-7 over their last 13 games, though they’ve got home field advantage for this series and are 48-22 at home.
PITCHING MATCHUP
With the Pirates sending their ace to the hill in the first game of this day-night twin bill, the second game will feature a pair of southpaws.
For the Cubs, Jon Lester will be on the bump to face J.A. Happ whose name isn’t at the level of Lester’s, but who’s pitched very well since joining the Pirates at the trade deadline.
In seven starts since leaving Seattle, Happ is 5-1 with a 1.79 ERA with 42 strikeouts and just seven walks.
In his first start with the Pirates, the Cubs got to him for four runs on nine hits in four and a third innings, but that was before Buc’s pitching coach Ray Searage was able to help him with a few minor tweaks to his delivery that went a long ways.
Lester, meanwhile, was brought in over the offseason to be the ace of this staff, though Jake Arrieta has taken over that role. Lester’s been solid, but inconsistent, with a 3.50 ERA.
He’s coming off a very good seven inning outing against the Cardinals where he allowed just a single run on two hits. In his only start this year against the Pirates, he lasted seven innings giving up a single run.
QUOTE TO NOTE
In his last time out, Happ gave a lot of credit to catcher Francisco Cervelli in helping him with pitch selection and location, noting how they were trying to move the ball around the zone. He added:
“[I’m] not going to be perfect. But we definitely tried to execute [around the zone] today, and I think that caused some success, for sure.”
LIVE/SITUATIONAL BETTING
On the year, the Pirates have only outscored the Cubs by six runs in the same number of games, 141. That’s pretty much even.
All in all, both teams boast solid depth that has helped. Both also have top end talent they can lean on. For the Cubs, that includes Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant who have a .917 and .858 OPS respectively, combining for 53 home runs and 179 RBIs.
Of course, the duo has been helped by Kyle Schwarber who’s been practically unstoppable since his promotion. The youngster has a .942 OPS and 16 home runs in just 176 at bats. Add in other solid role players like Miguel Montero, Chris Coghlan and Dexter Fowler and it’s not hard to see how this lineup has produced the fifth most runs since the All-Star Break.
For the Pirates, the team MVP is once again Andrew McCutchen, but Jung Ho Kang has been huge with a .826 OPS filling in and with Michael Morse hitting off the bench, Aramis Ramirez coming around, Gregory Polanco being another player in the second half and Francisco Cervelli still hitting over .300, there’s a lot to like here as well.
PROP TALK
Starlin Castro has had a terrible year, losing his starting spot and slumping, but he’s a solid 4-for-9 with two doubles against Happ and may get the start as a result.
Along with Castro, Chris Denorfia and Anthony Rizzo have had the most success against Happ. Denorfia is 6-for-17 with a pair of home runs and a pair of doubles while Rizzo has the only other home run and is 4-for-6 in limited action against him.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The offenses are neck-and-neck on the year and the pitching is pretty close, too, with the Pirates having a slight edge overall, mainly due to a 2.77 bullpen ERA that is nearly a run better than the Cubs.
Lester should keep Chicago in the game, but Happ has been pitching lights out of late and while the Cubs offense is on a roll, Pittsburgh can score, too, particularly at home.
Pittsburgh 4, Chicago 3
The MLB odds for this game will be available first at BookMaker Sportsbook. BookMaker is going to have multiple betting options available for this nationally-televised baseball matchup. Live wagering during commercials offers an adjusted moneyline, individual inning run totals and next hitter results. Log in and start gambling during the game now!
Load your betting bankroll from your smartphone with BookMaker’s new cashier feature! Depositing and withdrawing funds from your account has never been easier. BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here and start wagering today! First pitch for the game between the Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates is scheduled for Tuesday, September 15, 2015, at 7:05 p.m. ET at PNC Park. The game will be televised live on WGN.
