Winning the AL Central and securing the best record in baseball at 100-62 has earned the Cardinals home field advantage, but the division’s third place team will look for the upset in the five game series, beginning on Friday.
The Cubs are fresh off an impressive 4-0 shutout win over the Pirates and bring a 97-65 regular season record to the field.
ODDS ANALYSIS
St. Louis has been the National League’s best bet this year with a cumulative moneyline of $2,247 compared to the Cubs’ $1,751.
That said, it’s the Cubs that are 42-18 over their last 60 games, since the beginning of August. The Cardinals, meanwhile, dropped their last three regular season games and were 14-16 over their last 30 games.
Despite skidding to the finish line, the Cardinals did take 11 of 19 in the regular season against Chicago. St. Louis also has home field advantage and stands 55-26 as hosts in 2015.
PITCHING MATCHUP
The Cardinals rotation is built on solid young starting pitching, but it’s the grizzled veteran that’ll get the ball in Game 1.
John Lackey gets the nod. The 36-year old threw 218 innings with a 13-10 record and a career best 2.77 ERA to go along with a 1.211 WHIP and 3.57 FIP.
Over his last six starts, Lackey threw 39 1/3 innings, allowing 10 runs for a 2.29 ERA. He also pitched three times against the Cubs, allowing just three runs in 21 2/3 innings.
To counter Lackey, the Cubs are expected to throw their own veteran and former Red Sox hurler in southpaw Jon Lester.
Lester was signed this winter to be the ace of the staff, but Jake Arrieta emerged as a legitimate Cy Young contender and earned the start in the Wild Card game. With Arrieta unable to go until Game 3, the Cubs will turn to the vet who pitched to a 3.34 ERA and 2.92 FIP in 205 innings on the year.
This season, Lester has been better on the road than at home, pitching to a 2.93 ERA and 0.975 WHIP over 80 innings of work. After a rough August, he pitched well in the season’s last month, going 3-2 with a 2.36 ERA.
Against the Cardinals this season, Lester was solid, but had poor luck. He’s 1-3 in five starts, with a 2.59 ERA in 31 1/3 innings.
QUOTE TO NOTE
After the Wildcard win, Cubs’ manager Joe Maddon spoke about playing on the road, saying:
“If you’re on the road, if you get on the board first, that might take a little bit of steam, or wind out of somebody’s sails. But that’s our concept all year. We want to score first.”
LIVE/SITUATIONAL BETTING
The main story in the Wild Card game was the complete game shutout by Jake Arrieta, but the offense did its job as well, namely rookie catcher turned outfielder Kyle Schwarber. The youngster slammed a homer and drove in three.
While most of the Cubs’ attention all year has gone towards a different rookie—Kris Bryant—Schwarber has become a key piece to the second half surge.
As a team, Chicago’s offense sputtered at first, but has been on fire of late. In September, the Cubs ranked fifth in baseball with 141 runs. Schwarber, Bryant and Anthony Rizzo form a very good trio in the middle, all capable of going deep and all with an OPS north of .840. Chris Coghlan, Dexter Fowler, Miguel Montero and others all serve important roles for Maddon, an expert at finding the right mix.
The Cardinals’ offense lacks the potency of the Cubs. St. Louis, instead, relies on a much deeper pitching staff. They have the clear edge in the bullpen with a cumulative 2.82 ERA.
At the plate, they have a number of good, professional hitters. While the ceiling isn’t there, the consistency is. The team gets enough to support their pitching staff with youngsters like Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty complimenting quality vets like Matt Holliday and Matt Carpenter.
PROP TALK
Keep an eye on Jason Heyward. The former Brave has hit well against Lester, going 10-for-24 with a pair of homers and four doubles. In addition, Jhonny Peralta has slammed three long balls.
On the other side, no Cubs player has a home run against Lackey. That, however, is not to say that nobody has had success. Coghlan, for instance, is 8-for-17 against Lackey while Austin Jackson and Montero have collected a pair of doubles each.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
John Lackey has had an excellent season, but Lester is a proven arm in the postseason, having been the front man to the Red Sox’s World Series run in 2013. I look for him to put the Cubs on his back as they look to get out to an early lead in this game as well as the series.
St. Louis certainly has the edge in the bullpen, but if Lester can go seven, that doesn’t matter nearly as much. I worry about the Cubs in Game 2, but think they have Game 1 as the Cardinals stumbled at the end of the regular season and now have to wait the better part of the week while the Cubs get to carry the momentum from a big do-or-die win at Pittsburgh into Friday.
Chicago 5, St. Louis 3
The MLB odds for this game will be available first at BookMaker Sportsbook. Gamble on the game between every half inning with BookMaker’s live betting feature. Along with an adjusted in-game moneyline, you can wager on what will happen in the next at-bat or how many runs will be scored in the next inning. Live betting is the most exciting way to play!
Load your betting bankroll from your smartphone with BookMaker’s new cashier feature! Depositing and withdrawing funds from your account has never been easier. BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here and start wagering today! First pitch for the game between the Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals is scheduled for Friday, October 9, 2015, at 6:30 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium. The contest will be broadcast nationally on TBS.
