The Chicago Cubs (27-22, $202) have been building towards being considered amongst the top echelon of teams and will get a chance to showcase themselves against the preseason favorite in the National League, the Washington Nationals (28-22, $79) this weekend, beginning with the first of four on Thursday.
ODDS ANALYSIS
The first series these two teams played this year is one that the Cubs would rather forget as they head to the Nation’s capital on Thursday.
Washington beat Chicago in two of three at Wrigley, though they only outscored them by three total runs in the series. Since then, the Nationals went on to get swept by the Reds over the weekend while the Cubs split a rain shortened two game series against the Royals before topping the Marlins, 5-1, on Monday.
Here, we have two teams that are quite balanced, though heading in opposite directions of late.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Jake Arrieta takes the hill on Thursday. He’s posted a 2.90 ERA since joining the Cubs and is 4-4 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.092 WHIP this year.
The righty has yet to give up more than four runs in any start, each lasting at least five innings, usually going much deeper. He, however, did allow seven combined runs over his last 13 innings. He’s allowed four of his six home runs during his last two starts. He allowed only five all of last year.
The Nationals have yet to formally announce who will be opposing Arrieta. It was supposed to be Gio Gonzalez’s turn, but with Stephen Strasburg joining Doug Fister on the disabled list, his start may be pushed up.
If he does go, he is 4-2 with an inflated 4.73 ERA and 1.525 WHIP. His biggest issue is his exceptionally high hits per nine innings ratio at 10.5.
Sabermetrics figure much of that will normalize as his BABIP dips. His FIP is a very good 3.03 and he’s allowed just three homers in 59 innings. Still, in his last four outings, Gio’s allowed at least four runs while failing to pitch more than five and a third innings three times.
If Gonzalez is pushed up, the start could go to Tanner Roark (2.59 ERA in 31 1/3 innings) on short rest or A.J. Cole could be recalled. The righty is pitching to a 3.26 ERA and 1.253 WHIP in Triple-A Syracuse and made his major league debut earlier this year. Taylor Jordan is another option. He is already on the roster and pitched four and two thirds of an inning after Strasburg left his last start.
QUOTE TO NOTE
After his last outing, Arrieta was asked about the home runs he allowed to the Royals, and he responded saying:
“They came out swinging, and I expected that…I was in the strike zone early and often, which is a good thing. It hurt in a couple scenarios, but I think, overall, I didn’t give them any free passes.”
LIVE/SITUATIONAL BETTING
With the pitching up in the air, the offense is where the Nationals make up the difference, having scored 28 more runs this season than the Cubs in just one additional game heading into Tuesday.
Recently, however, the Nationals’ lineup has cooled. The team is not getting the production it expected from players like Wilson Ramos (.669 OPS) and Ryan Zimmerman (.667 OPS) though Bryce Harper has made the difference as he is an early MVP favorite with a league leading 18 home runs, 42 runs, 44 walks and 1.193 OPS.
As far as support, the team has gotten some solid on base numbers from Denard Span (.356 OBP), Yunel Escobar (0.371 OBP) and Danny Espinosa (.358 OBP).
Of course, the Cubs have an MVP candidate of their own in Anthony Rizzo. The young first baseman is building on a strong 2014 campaign. Through 49 games, Rizzo is hitting .316 with a 1.009 OPS and leads the team with his nine home runs.
Of course, Kris Bryant is second in home runs with seven and tops in RBIs (33) despite getting a late start to the year. His .876 OPS is second on the team, but he is just one of seven players with an OPS+ of 100 or more; the only exception amongst starters being Starlin Castro, who delivered a home run in Monday’s win.
PROP TALK
Harper is always an interesting player to watch and he is 4 for 9 in his career against Arrieta, but Escobar is another player with success against the righty going 7 for 18 including a home run.
On the other side, Rizzo is hitting to a .316 average, showing he is a good bet to get a hit any given night. Over his last 29 games, he’s knocked at least one hit in 25.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Pitching was supposed to be the biggest strength for this Nationals’ team, but now everything is up in the air. Whether it be Gonzalez or someone else, Arrieta possesses the statistical edge.
Causing even more concern for the Nationals is a shaky—and likely taxed—bullpen that will be just a couple days removed from a doubleheader. Even before that, the pen’s previous 19 2/3 innings resulted in 15 runs. Outside of Drew Storen (0.84 ERA) and perhaps Blake Treinen (3.51 ERA) and Matt Thornton (1.98 ERA) there has been little certainty.
The Cubs, meanwhile, have a solid, if unspectacular, pen. Add in the duo of Rizzo and Bryant and the Nats’ failure to score more than three runs in eight of their last 10 games, and this one goes to Chicago.
Chicago 6, Washington 3
The MLB odds for this game will be available first at BookMaker Sportsbook. Gamble on the game between every half inning with BookMaker’s live betting feature. Along with an adjusted in-game moneyline, you can wager on what will happen in the next at-bat or how many runs will be scored in the next inning. Live betting is the most exciting way to play!
Load your betting bankroll from your smartphone with BookMaker’s new cashier feature! Depositing and withdrawing funds from your account has never been easier. BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here and start wagering today! First pitch for the game between the Chicago Cubs and Washington Nationals is scheduled for Thursday, June 4, 2015, at 7:05 p.m. ET at Nationals Park. The game will be televised live on WGN.
