The Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Indians meet in a weekend series, highlighted by Saturday’s middle game, while in a battle for the cellar in the AL Central. While both teams are disappointments, the Indians have been the biggest one to the bettors with a moneyline of -$1,312 compared to the Sox’s -$965.
ODDS ANALYSIS
The White Sox have dropped six of their last seven games and four straight overall, to fall back to eight games below .500 with a record of 42-50. The Indians, of course, haven’t been much better at 45-48, but they have at least taken three of their last four games.
Of course, for Cleveland those last four games came on the road. They return home to host Chicago and that is actually bad news for the Tribe. The Indians have been much better on the road than at home this year, going just 19-26 at Progressive Field.
Despite the Indians’ home futility, something has to give as the Sox are poor on the road with an 18-28 record, though they’re solid in night games at an even .500.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Chris Sale is on the mound for the White Sox on Saturday, making the team—despite their record—one of the best in the game.
The dominating southpaw is a true ace and gives Chicago a chance to win nearly every time out. On the year, the 26-year old from Lakeland, FL is 8-5 with a 2.86 ERA and 0.995 WHIP in 125 2/3 innings of work spread over his 18 starts.
Sale leads the league in strike outs with 163 and in FIP at 2.38 as he continues to dominate his opposition.
While he’s still striking out 11.7 batters per nine innings, his strike out figures have declined here in July after a dominating 75 Ks in six June starts. In July, Sale is 2-1 with just 22 strike outs through 22 1/3 innings, allowing seven earned runs.
Given the nearly impossible task of matching up with Sale is Indians’ right-hander Carlos Carrasco.
The 28-year old is underrated due to a missed season in 2012 and a struggle in his first year back. Last year, split between the rotation and the pen, Carrasco made a name for himself with a 2.55 ERA in 134 innings and has built off that this year.
All 19 of Carrasco’s appearances have come in the rotation this year and he leads the team in wins with 10, going 10-7 with a 3.94 ERA and 1.172 WHIP in 114 1/3 innings.
Carrasco lasted just eight pitches in his only start against the Sox this year, allowing two hits, before being struck by a liner and leaving the game. He rebounded from that with a strong performance his next time out and has been keeping his team in the game ever since.
Over his last two starts, the righty has thrown 13 innings, allowing just three runs while striking out 13.
QUOTE TO NOTE
After another loss, the White Sox’s starter, John Danks, spoke about the urgency the team now has, saying:
“We have to win ballgames. There’s not really any time left. We have to go. I feel like we have played better than our record shows this first week, but at the end of the day, it’s all about wins and losses. We have to do better. We know that.”
LIVE/SITUATIONAL BETTING
The biggest thing the White Sox need to do better is create more offense. Chicago is last in runs scored with 310 and last in runs per game with 3.37. Over the last week, they did get a five run and a six run outing, but they also scored two runs or fewer in seven of their last 10 games.
There is really no reason for the team’s poor offense. They have the names to be better than they are, but outside of Jose Abreu’s .806 OPS and Adam Eaton’s .323 OBP, the rest of the offense is basically nonexistent. Melky Cabrera has a .639 OPS as a key part of the offense while Adam LaRoche is batting just .218 and Alexei Ramirez is hitting .224.
Even Eaton’s OBP, while better than everyone on the team not named Abreu, is still low for a leadoff hitter.
The Indians are far from a great offense, but compared to the White Sox they are just that. Cleveland has far more threats and a far more functional group of offensive players even with their black holes at a couple infield positions.
Still, the team has Jason Kipnis at the top with a .406 OBP and add to that with Carlos Santana and his .364 OBP, Michael Brantley’s .829 OPS and Brandon Moss’s 15 home runs.
In addition, role players like David Murphy and Ryan Raburn add quality at bats with each posting an OPS over .800.
PROP TALK
Sale has had a pretty good career against the Indians with a 3.97 ERA, though there is one Cleveland player in particular that seems to see the ball out of his hand quite well.
Carlos Santana is 10 for 27 in his career against the dominating southpaw with just two strike outs. While Santana hasn’t recorded an extra base hit against Sale, he does have five RBIs and a .433 OBP.
On the other side, Melky Cabrera has seen the ball best off of Carrasco. The veteran outfielder is 6 for 13 against him with a double, a home run and five RBIs.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Sale is on the mound, but given the White Sox’s offense, he will need to be nearly perfect to get the win. Of late, the Sox’s pen has also aided in the team finding new ways to lose.
Despite that, I still have faith in Sale to pitch well and go deep into the game and blown games aside, David Robertson is still a solid closer with a 2.31 ERA should he be called upon to close out the game out.
Chicago 3, Cleveland 2
BookMaker will send out the baseball odds for this marquee matchup before any other sportsbook. Since this game can be seen by anyone with a TV, BookMaker will have a multitude of wagering options available for it. Outside of the normal lines, you can gamble on real-time moneylines, player props and inning totals. Live betting is open during every commercial break!
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