The Chicago Cubs (31-26, $215) wrap up a four game weekend set against their divisional rivals in the Cincinnati Reds (27-31, -$589) on Sunday night by sending their ace to the hill.
That alone should give Chicago the edge, despite his lackluster numbers, but their most healthy and talented young lineup adds to the advantage.
ODDS ANALYSIS
Prior to this series, these two teams have already met five times this year in divisional play with the Cubs taking four of those games.
Of course, the recent trends of both these teams indicate this series may be a bit less one sided as the Reds enter having won four straight games while the Cubs have won three of their last four themselves. Going back a bit further, the Reds are just 5-4 in their last nine.
Meanwhile, at Wrigley Field this year, the Cubs are 15-11 while the Reds are just 10-18 on the road while dropping nine of their last 10 away from the Great American Ballpark in Cincy.
PITCHING MATCHUP
In the offseason, the Cubs brought in southpaw Jon Lester to be the team’s ace with a six-year deal.
So far, Lester’s ERA is actually the highest of all Chicago starters at 4.25 and the 31-year old lefty is just 4-5 with a 1.431 WHIP in his 72 innings of work.
Lester’s last outing—against the Tigers—lasted just four and a third innings, his shortest outing since Opening Day.
After a rough April where Lester posted a 6.23 ERA, he seemed to settle down, pitching to a 1.76 ERA in May, but over his last two starts he has allowed 11 runs and 18 hits in just nine and a third innings of work.
The Reds’ starter for this series finale does not have the name power or the track record of Lester, but he has been more effective this season.
Twenty-five year old right-hander Anthony DeSclafani is 5-4 with a 3.53 ERA and 1.304 WHIP in his 71 1/3 innings spread over 12 starts. While the numbers are good, his ERA has been on a steady rise since posting a 1.04 ERA in April. He also allowed 10 hits in his six and a third innings last time out.
Early this year against Chicago, DeSclafani went 12 innings allowing just one earned run, though he did allow four additional unearned runs to cross the plate.
QUOTE TO NOTE
Off a huge 12-3 victory over the Tigers, the Cubs will return back home to host the Reds in four games flying high, but that is not a big deal for the Cubbies according to starter Jake Arrieta who had this to say following the win:
“We accomplished a lot. It’s a game-by-game situation for us. Regardless of whether we struggle or end on a high note with a victory, we’re able to put [each game] behind us and come out ready to play the next day and focus on the task at hand. That’s why we are able to win against good teams.”
LIVE/SITUATIONAL BETTING
While the ability to play game to game and moment to moment is big, having Anthony Rizzo (1.034 OPS) and Kris Bryant (.853 OPS) in the heart of your lineup game in and game out doesn’t hurt either.
While those two get all the attention and are a big reason for the team’s improved offense and early season success, there are other key contributors as well.
Managers Joe Maddon has done an excellent job balancing his roster both in the bullpen and the lineup.
Maddon has a collection of solid players and is able to pull the right strings at the right time. He knows just when to fit in guys like Junior Lake and Chris Denorfia to give his team the best chance any given day. Of course, having Rizzo and Bryant alongside Miguel Montero (.785 OPS) behind the plate along with Dexter Fowler (.729 OPS and 11 steals) and Chris Coghlan (.746 OPS) also helps.
For the Reds’ offense the story centers around Joey Votto (.958 OPS) who is just a few games removed from a three home run outburst. Todd Frazier (.967 OPS) also adds a lot of pop with 17 home runs and will look to both anchor a lineup largely mixed and matched with several regulars injured.
PROP TALK
With so many Reds’ players injured, an interesting player to keep an eye on aside from Votto and Frazier is catcher Brayan Pena. Thanks to Devin Mesoraco’s injury, Pena has gotten a considerable amount of playing time and has done well offensively with a .737 OPS and a .307 average. Granted, he has yet to show much power this year with only seven extra base hits—all doubles—and 43 total hits, but the 33-year old can be expected to put the bat on the ball.
While he has struggled this year against lefties, if he does get the start against Lester he has done well against him in the past going 8 for 22.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
DeSclafani has better numbers than Lester on the year, but he has also seen his numbers elevate of late. Still, he has done better this year, but Lester is the one with the track record while also showing flashes of brilliance this year.
I look for Lester to outpitch the kid and given the depleted Reds lineup and superior—albeit also mixed and matched—bullpen this one should go to the kids in blue.
Chicago 5, Cincinnati 3
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