Fantasy baseball players and live bettors alike have really been scratching their heads about Clayton Kershaw.
He's the one man on this Los Angeles Dodgers (26-17 SU, +1.37 Units) team which just hasn't lived up to the hype this season. The defending Cy Young champ will have another shot to get back on track Tuesday against the Atlanta Braves (22-21 SU, +3.39 Units).
PITCHING MATCHUP
It's so tough to bet on Kershaw if you're any type of a bettor. He's only 2-3 this year with a 4.32 ERA, numbers which you just know are going to improve. At home this year, he has been favored by -318, -176, -265 and -192 margins, and he is only 2-2 in those games.
Live betting is even worse. Theoretically, Kershaw should be less and less valuable as innings go by in tie games, but what we have seen this year with him on the bump is that the oddsmakers tend to make him more of a favorite as time goes by until about the fourth or the fifth inning.
Furthermore, his value is significantly less when he has to rely on his offense to score runs. After three innings in his last start against the Giants, Kershaw and the Dodgers were still favored in spite of the fact that they were down 1-0. As it turns out, the lefty could have finished the game and struck out every batter he faced, and it wouldn't have mattered. The Dodgers didn't give him any runs.
Julio Teheran should be helped by moving to the bigger park in this game. He is 4-1 on the season with a 3.91 ERA, but he has given up far too many crooked number innings this year. The Dodgers have a great offense, but they have too many nights where they just don't get the job done at all and end up getting shut out or close to it.
Still, the righty really needs to make sure that he doesn't walk too many batters. His walks per nine innings sit at 3.38, and if his control isn't good on Tuesday, live bettors could have a great opportunity to back the Dodgers.
ADVANCED STATS
Freddie Freeman is considered the beast in the Atlanta lineup, and his .301 batting average with five homers and 22 RBIs proves that to be legit.
However, is this a man who really should be anything more than +300 to get a base hit against Kershaw on Tuesday night? We doubt it.
Freeman has been insanely lucky this year, posting a .190 ISO and a .367 BABIP. Remember that Kershaw has been one of the most unlucky pitchers in the game this year. He still has a history of striking out a ton of men, and Freeman is prone to the strikeout with a 21.1 percent strikeout race this year.
If you can get better than about -300 or so on Freeman to get a hit in any given at bat against Kershaw, the odds are actually on your side, for as obscene as that number is to suggest.
TALKING BULLPENS
Park factor is a big deal for the Dodgers due to the fact that fly balls which would be home runs in other stadiums turn into cans of corn at Chavez Ravine. However, a home run to fly ball rate of just 6.1 percent is just too low at this point.
The arms in the LA pen are clearly strong, but we're not sure that we're believers yet. Getting Kenley Jansen back in as the closer is certainly going to help, but J.P. Howell isn't going to carry sub-1.00 ERAs forever. Men like Chris Hatcher and Sergio Santos haven't given up many homers this year, and that just isn't likely to continue.
If the ball gets all the way to Jansen, the Dodgers are definitely trustworthy, as he hasn't given up a single base runner yet in four innings pitched. Prior to that though, we would be a bit concerned for this pen in live betting.
The baseball betting odds for this game will first be available at BookMaker Sportsbook. BookMaker is going to have multiple betting options available for this baseball matchup. Live wagering during commercials offers and adjusted moneyline, individual inning run totals and next hitter results. Log in, and start gambling during the game now!
BookMaker offers play-by-play betting odds for live sporting events every day! The user-friendly wagering interface on your smartphone provides an easy way to place bets on the go. Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute, so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook! The game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Atlanta Braves will start at 10:10 p.m. ET on Tuesday, May 26, 2015 at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, CA. The matchup will be televised nationally on ESPN.
