After a bad weekend, the Chicago Cubs will hope to close out a successful series against the Colorado Rockies on Wednesday. The Cubs already took two of three in their first meeting with the Rockies at Coors this year.
ODDS ANALYSIS
The Cubs enter play with a number of advantages over the Rockies, having a superior record at 51-46 compared to Colorado’s 42-54 and having a 25-23 home record compared to the Rockies’ 18-27 mark on the road amongst other things.
Despite the different records, however, both squads have been disappointments for bettors of late. The Cubs total moneyline is -$324 while the Rockies’ is -$857.
Chicago has seen much of that negative dollar amount come in their last three games as they got swept at home by the lowly Philadelphia Phillies, including being no-hit on Saturday.
Entering this series, the Cubs have dropped four of their last five games while the Rockies have lost five of their last eight.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Not only do the overall records favor Chicago, but so does the pitching matchup as the Cubs send veteran southpaw Jon Lester to the mound against young righty Eddie Butler.
Butler’s just 3-6 on the year with a 4.77 ERA and 1.790 WHIP in 60 1/3 innings of work at the big league level. Perhaps more disturbing, however, is his 0.97 strike out to walk ratio. The young gun has walked 33 while only striking out 32, that’s just 4.8 per nine innings.
On the road, Butler has a 4.58 ERA, but has surrendered 46 hits in just 39 1/3 innings. The rookie’s numbers are inflated, but he’s actually lucky they’re not worse as his FIP is 5.35.
On the other side, Lester hasn’t been quite the godsend for this pitching staff as he was expected to be at season’s start, but the 31-year old lefty has helped stabilize a very good rotation.
Overall, Lester is just 5-8, but he has a very good 3.32 ERA and 1.195 WHIP in his 124 2/3 innings of work. His FIP is even lower at 2.99.
Here in July, Lester has thrown at least seven innings, recording four quality starts in five outings and allowing just six earned runs in 35 1/3 innings for a 1.53 ERA. Provided his ERA remains below two for the month, it will be his second such month this season after posting a 1.76 ERA in May.
QUOTE TO NOTE
The Cubs had a really bad weekend against the Phillies and Joe Maddon made no excuses after Sunday’s game, saying:
“We didn’t play good at all, I’m not going to defend that, but they played really well. I’d like to see us hit like that for two, three weeks straight. They stung everything. They deserved to win; they were the better team for three days.”
LIVE/SITUATIONAL BETTING
Johnny Cueto quieted the Rockies’ bats on Saturday, but a 17 run outburst highlighted by a 10 run inning shows just how potent the Rockies’ lineup can be. Of course, Colorado will be on the road on Wednesday. Colorado has scored just 155 runs away from home, the second fewest in baseball.
Even with a lackluster .671 road OPS, the Rockies do have a solid lineup. Third baseman Nolan Arenado headlines the group of players with his .906 OPS, but players like Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez help give the lineup depth, though either could be dealt this week as the non-waiver trade deadline approaches.
Having key players dealt away isn’t a concern for Chicago. The Cubs figure to be adding at the deadline and not subtracting. For now, however, the team has some offensive concerns.
Cole Hamels no-hit them on Saturday and they have plenty of concern around shortstop Starlin Castro whose OPS has dipped to .571. All in all, the team has All-Stars in Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant, but have gotten spotty production from most others though catcher Kyle Schwarber has made some waves in place of Miguel Montero making a huge impact at the plate when given a chance.
He’s 19 for 48 so far with three home runs, 11 RBIs and a 1.119 OPS.
PROP TALK
Carlos Gonzalez has been red hot for the Rockies since June and has been even better in July with a .377 average, 1.223 OPS and eight home runs. Since the All-Star break, he already has five home runs in just seven games.
Despite his streak, don’t rely on him Wednesday. The veteran outfielder’s OPS is over 200 points lower on the road than at Coors Field and sits at just .706 this year. He’s also really struggled against lefties hitting .162 against them this year with a .398 OPS.
Against Lester in his career, Gonzo is just 1 for 6.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Butler has struggled, the Rockies bullpen has a 4.57 ERA and the offense, while good, has been less dominant away from the comforts of Coors Field. All those things point to the Cubs taking this game, particularly when considering Chicago has Lester on the mound who is pitching some of his best baseball of the year.
Chicago 6, Colorado 3
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