ODDS ANALYSIS
The Marlins turned a horrible homestand into just a bad one with a three game sweep of the defending World Series Champion Giants, ending their stay at 4-5 following Thursday’s 5-4 win. Miami held on for its second straight one-run win and is 3-0 in the last three games decided by a single run.
The Marlins won two of three from Chicago when the teams met in Florida a month ago and got to the Cubs staff for 12 runs in their two wins. Without slugger Giancarlo Stanton in the lineup, the Marlins still scored 16 times in their sweep of the Giants, cashing the over in all three games.
The Cubs are staying in the wild card picture thanks to impressive pitching that led them to a series and season sweep of the Mets while the offense continues to figure it out. The Cubs tossed a pair of shutouts at the Mets and took the finale 6-1 on Thursday, tossing 25 consecutive scoreless innings over a four-game stretch. The Cubs are hopeful their six-run, eight-hit outburst is the start of an offensive resurgence after the club failed to score more than two runs in eight consecutive games prior to Thursday. Chicago is a strong play on the under at home, going 8-2 in their last 10 at Wrigley Field with the under 23-9-3 in their first 36 games.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Jarred Cosart (1-3, 4.12 ERA) will be making his first start since May 13 when he gave up four runs on five hits in 5.1 innings against the Dodgers. He went on the disabled list with vertigo after that outing and returned to the team June 26, allowing two runs in four innings of relief.
Cosart has been roughed up in his four road starts this season surrendering five home runs and 22 hits with a 6.10 ERA over 20.2 innings. He faces the Cubs for the first time in his career.
Donn Roach (5-3, 2.92 ERA) was available out of the bullpen since lasting 3.1 innings in his first start of year last Saturday, but wasn’t used. His performance against the Marlins could determine if he stays in the rotation or the Cubs go with a fifth starter by committee until Tsuyoshi Wada returns.
Roach tossed three innings of relief in two games against the Marlins last season as a member of the San Diego Padres, giving up two runs on four hits with four strikeouts.
QUOTE TO NOTE
“Everyone is executing pitches when they have to. We’ve had some roles switched around a little bit. No one has complained or put their head down. That’s a hard thing to do in this profession. Put your pride aside and worry about the greater good.” – Cubs pitcher Jon Lester on the staff’s streak of 25 consecutive scoreless innings.
LIVE BETTING or SITUATIONAL BETTING
Thanks to some excellent pitching, the Cubs have been able to keep their heads above water despite a historic drought at the plate. Following Wednesday’s 2-0 win over the Mets in 11-innings, the Cubs went 3-5 in a stretch where they scored no more than two runs in any contest, tied for the second-longest streak of its kind in franchise history. The offense broke that spell but the pitching again was solid in a 6-1 win at New York on Thursday to complete the series and season sweep of the Mets. Cubs’ pitching allowed just one run over three games in New York after Simon the magician visited the team’s clubhouse and the magic has rubbed off on the staff. They extended their scoreless innings streak to 25 before the Mets scored their only run of the series in the third inning on Thursday.
PROP TALK
With Giancarlo Stanton out of the lineup, Justin Bour has stepped up with the big stick for the Marlins. Bour homered in all three games against the Giants, blasting a walk-off three-run long ball in Wednesday’s 6-5 win. He hit another three-run shot Thursday to give the Marlins a 5-4 win and series sweep. He drove in seven of the team’s 16 runs in the series on just four hits, upping his average to .268 with nine home runs and 20 RBIs over 137 at-bats. He went hitless in seven at-bats when the teams met in early June, but he’s swinging a hot bat now.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The last time the Cubs were beaten up was last Saturday when Donn Roach took the hill in St. Louis. Roach has some good minor league numbers but has yet to find his groove at the big league level, and he may never. Some guys are simply career minor leaguers and Roach might fit into that category. He has a favorable matchup against a Marlins team that stinks on the road and is without Giancarlo Stanton. Roach needs a good outing to convince the club to keep him, otherwise its back to Iowa. He delivers and sticks around for another start.
Chicago 6, Miami 2
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