The Cubs took advantage of facing last place teams Colorado and Milwaukee to get even for the NL’s second wild card and look to continue the momentum of six wins in seven games when they battle Central Division rival Pittsburgh in the first of a three-game set.
ODDS ANALYSIS
It was a good week for Chicago, who began by taking two of three from Colorado at Wrigley Field then swept the host Brewers in a four-game set over the weekend. Upcoming games against postseason contenders Pittsburgh and San Francisco are likely to be a more difficult challenge. The Cubs enter their series with NL Central rival Pittsburgh tied with the Giants for the second wild card, four games behind the Bucs. After getting swept by the Phillies, the Cubs won six of seven up 4.52 units in that run with the under at 4-0-1 in the last five. Playing below the scoreline is something the Cubs are used to with Jon Lester on the hill. The under is 9-0-1 in his last 10 starts overall and 4-0 in his last four outings on the road.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Jon Lester (6-8, 3.26 ERA) had what he called his best outing of the season his last time out, striking out a season-high 14 Rockies while holding them to two runs on five hits. He’s thrown at least seven innings in each of his July starts, including another season-high eight in his last turn. Lester has been sharp in his last three outings surrendering just 14 hits with 27 strikeouts and two walks over 22.1 innings.
Lester went seven innings allowing one run – a homer to Sean Rodriguez – and striking out seven in a 4-1 win over the Bucs on May 16.
Francisco Liriano (7-6, 2.92 ERA) hopes to limit Cubs baserunners after a so-so outing Wednesday, when he gave up three runs and a season-worst 10 hits through 5.2 innings of a 10-4 win over Minnesota. Despite the rough outing, the lefty is 3-0 with a 2.03 ERA over his last five turns and the Bucs have won his last six starts.
The Pirates are used to Liriano putting them in a position to beat the Cubs. Since signing with the Bucs in 2013, Liriano has gone 4-1 with a 2.17 ERA in nine starts against the NL Central rivals.
QUOTE TO NOTE
“That’s part of the learning process with the young guys is to not look too far ahead and not focus on scoreboard watching. A week ago we got swept by Philadelphia. It’s baseball – you can’t take things for granted and the whole idea of taking one pitch at a time, one game at a time is why teams win and get to the playoffs. It’s the idea of not getting ahead of yourself and not getting too down on yourself. You have to keep an even keel.” – Cubs pitcher Jason Hammel
LIVE BETTING or SITUATIONAL BETTING
The Pirates took a gamble on Jung Ho Kang, signing him away from the Korean Baseball Organization in the offseason. Thrust into a more prominent role with the club following the loss of infielders Josh Harrison and Jordy Mercer, Kang has thrived in his role as the team’s everyday shortstop, a role he took over after Mercer was sidelined with a knee injury. Kang homered in three of the six games on a just concluded road trip and hit .391 on the trip. He’s batting .397 with four home runs since the All-Star break. His .443 on-base percentage and .379 batting average led all rookies during the month of July. Many Major League scouts equate the level of play in the KBO to that of Double-A ball but Kang has held his own. In 113 appearances last season Kang set KBO season record for shortstops with 40 homers and 117 RBIs.
PROP TALK
The free-swinging Cubs lead the majors in being struck out and Pirates starter Francisco Liriano is a strikeout pitcher. You do the math. Liriano is fifth in the NL with 140 Ks and has pitched fewer innings than any pitcher in the top 10. He fanned 10 Cubs hitters in just five innings when he faced them on Apr. 21 and has struck out 74 in 59.2 innings in 10 career starts against Chicago. Liriano has a good shot at hitting the over on his strikeout total.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Cubs’ starter Jon Lester has looked like the ace the team expected him to be when inking him to a mega deal in the offseason. However he’s been hampered with a lack of run support and the team has won just three of his last seven starts while scoring 1.86 runs in that stretch. Francisco Liriano has been good facing the Cubs in his career and if Kris Bryant is out after colliding with a Milwaukee player on Sunday, the Cubs will be even less effective at the plate.
Pittsburgh 4, Chicago 2
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